For what it’s worth, yesterday turned out to be a very good day for me. I used five teams and seven sides in a round robin of two-team parlays, The Orioles 1st and full game MLs, the Phils 1st 5 ML, the Giants 1st 5 and full game MLs, the Cards ML and the Dodgers ML. Five on those seven sides won with the Giants 1st 5 pushing and only the Giants full game losing. I also had two side bets on the Braves 1st 5 and full game MLs and both also won. I finished +21.95 units for the day, leaving me +66.60 units for the season.
In Baltimore, Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg and Ryan O’Hearn all homered, And Grayson Rodriguez pitched six solid innings as the Orioles trounced the Twins 11-3 last night.
In Philadelphia, Ranger Suárez pitched a complete seven-hit shutout and Bryce Harper homered as the Phils beat the pathetic Rockies 5-0 last night.
In Miami, Ryan Weathers struck out a career-high 10 batters before departing because of cramps in his left hand, a the Marlins beat the Giants 6-3 last night.
In Houston, Reynaldo López struck out seven over six scoreless innings, and Orlando Arcia homered as the Braves won their third straight game, beating the Astros 6-2 last night.
In Oakland, Lance Lynn picked up his first win as Card in seven years, a 3-2 win over the As last nightt before a season-low crowd of 3,296 at the Oakland Coliseum. The hefty 36-year-old righty, who went 72-47 for the Cards from 2011-17, returned to St. Louis during the offseason after pitching for five other teams. Lynn gave up two runs (one earned)) on five hits over seven innings.
In LA, Mookie Betts tied his career high with five hits, doubling twice and driving in two runs to lead the Dodgers to a 6-2 win over the Nats last night, and Kyle Hurt gave up three hits over two scoreless innings as the Dodgers opener and bulk reliever Ryan Yarbrough gave up two runs, two hits and three walks over five innings.
Today, we have a full slate with several day games and there are a few games that I like so let’s get to it. I’m again sticking with the parlays. Here is my card.
ML Parlays
|
Team #1
|
Team #2
|
Odds
|
Units
|
|
MINN 1st 5 ML
|
NYM 1st 5 ML
|
203
|
2
|
|
MINN 1st 5 ML
|
DET 1st 5 ML
|
194
|
2
|
|
MINN 1st 5 ML
|
DET ML
|
200
|
2
|
|
MINN 1st 5 ML
|
ATL 1st 5 ML
|
194
|
2
|
|
MINN 1st 5 ML
|
ATL ML
|
200
|
2
|
|
MINN 1st 5 ML
|
KC 1st 5 ML
|
182
|
2
|
|
MINN 1st 5 ML
|
KC ML
|
184
|
2
|
|
NYM 1st 5 ML
|
DET 1st 5 ML
|
185
|
2
|
|
NYM 1st 5 ML
|
DET ML
|
191
|
2
|
|
NYM 1st 5 ML
|
ATL 1st 5 ML
|
185
|
2
|
|
NYM 1st 5 ML
|
ATL ML
|
191
|
2
|
|
NYM 1st 5 ML
|
KC 1st 5 ML
|
173
|
2
|
|
NYM 1st 5 ML
|
KC ML
|
171
|
2
|
|
DET 1st 5 ML
|
ATL 1st 5 ML
|
`77
|
2
|
|
DET 1st 5 ML
|
ATL ML
|
`83
|
2
|
|
DET 1st 5 ML
|
KC 1st 5 ML
|
165
|
|
|
DET 1st 5 ML
|
KC ML
|
167
|
2
|
|
DET ML
|
ATL 1st 5 ML
|
183
|
2
|
|
DET ML
|
ATL ML
|
188
|
2
|
|
DET ML
|
KC 1st 5 ML
|
171
|
2
|
|
DET ML
|
KC ML
|
172
|
2
|
|
ATL 1st 5 ML
|
KC 1st 5 ML
|
165
|
2
|
|
ATL 1st 5 ML
|
KC ML
|
167
|
2
|
|
ATL ML
|
KC 1st 5 ML
|
171
|
2
|
|
ATL ML
|
KC ML
|
172
|
2
|
I sould point out that I am using this season;s numbers, so it is still a very small sample size.
Here are the breakdowns.
MINN @ BALT
The 6-10 Twins have now lost two straight at home to the 11-6 Orioles, and will be looking to avoid a series sweep today.
Starting Pitchers
1:05
|
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
HC%
|
K%
|
BB%
|
MINN
|
Lopez - R
|
|
(1/3)
|
(2/3)
|
1.20
|
4.86
|
3.54
|
3.61
|
3.57
|
3.63
|
0.306
|
0.33
|
42.9%
|
23.2%
|
5.8%
|
BALT
|
Suarez - R
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Edge - MINN
After a stellar opening day start at the Royals, Pablo Lopez has struggled in hs last two starts giving up 4 runs (3 earned v the Guardians and 5 at the Tigers. With the exception of a high ERA, all oof Lopez’s numbers are solidm and his ERA metrics all tell me that his ERA should be about a full run lower than it actually is.
The Orioles called up Albert Suarez from AAA Norfolk and he will tart today's game against the Twins at Camden Yards. Suarez will be making his first appearance in the majors since 2017, when he tossed 31.2 innings out of the Giants’ bullpen. He spent the last five seasons in Japan and Korea. Suarez posted a 1.32 WHP and 5.87 ERA with a 17/1 K/BB ratio over 15.1 innings (one start) for Norfolk. He'll be stepping into the rotation spot that opened up after Tyler Wells (elbow) was placed on the IL, but Suarez may be in line for just one start before heading back to the minors.
Bullpens
N/A 0 This is a 1st 5 only bet
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
HH%
|
Rank
|
BAR%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
MINN
|
3.50
|
27
|
0.276
|
26
|
78
|
27
|
0.140
|
18
|
9.2%
|
12
|
0.5
|
10
|
34.2%
|
26
|
6.8%
|
19
|
27.6%
|
28
|
BALT
|
5.88
|
3
|
0.320
|
16
|
110
|
9
|
0.185
|
3
|
7.1%
|
30
|
3.2
|
2
|
41.5%
|
6
|
8.6%
|
7
|
21.2%
|
10
|
Edge – BALT
The only edge the Twins have offensively is that they walk a little more. Everything else points to the O’s as the better hitting team
Conclusion: The O’s are the clearly better hitting team, but the Twins should have a big edge in the starting pitching matchup. The surface numbers don;r necessarily reflect it, but the underlying metrics do and Lopez is an elite starting pitcher, while Suarez is a minor leaguer who’s just passing through. I’ll take a shot on Lopez for 5 innings.
Pick – MINN 1st 5 ML in a series of parlays
PITT @ NYM
The surprising 11-7 Pirates will trty to avoid being swept by the 9-8 Mets, who a riding a three-game winning streak.
Starting Pitchers
1:10
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
HC%
|
K%
|
BB%
|
PITT
|
Falter - L
|
|
(2/3)
|
(1/3)
|
0.93
|
4.20
|
4.28
|
4.98
|
5.41
|
5.59
|
0.260
|
0.327
|
34.7%
|
10.2%
|
6.8%
|
NYM
|
Severino - R
|
|
|
|
1.40
|
3.00
|
4.40
|
3.91
|
3.50
|
3.65
|
0.318
|
0.331
|
40.0%
|
25.0%
|
8.8%
|
Edge – NYM
Bailey Falter has started three games for the Pirates with the last two grading as above average. He has given up 7 runs on 10 hits and 4 waks over 15 innings with 6 Ks. Howeverm other than his very low wHIPm Falters ERA and ERA metrics are all mediocre or worse and the almost 70 point gap between his wOBa and x wOBA say the same thing. A lousy 10.2% K rate isn’t helping either.
Luis Severino has also started three games for the Mets with the last two grading as above average. While his WHIP is much higher than Falter’s, his ERA and ERA metrics are all much lower with almost a 15% better K rate.
Bullpens
N/A – This is a 1st 5 bet only
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
HH%
|
Rank
|
BAR%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
PITT
|
5.44
|
7
|
0.330
|
10
|
101
|
15
|
0.134
|
21
|
11.0%
|
2
|
-0.2
|
17
|
38.3%
|
18
|
8.1%
|
11
|
23.8%
|
19
|
NYM
|
4.60
|
15
|
0.323
|
15
|
103
|
13
|
0.134
|
21
|
9.6%
|
10
|
-1.9
|
26
|
36.7%
|
20
|
6.6%
|
22
|
18.6%
|
4
|
Edge – PITT, but the margins are mostly very small
Conclusion: The bid difference that I see in this game is the difference between these two starting pitchers. On the surface they seem comparable, ut when we dig deeper we see a clear edge emerging for Severino including a better ERA, Better ERA metrics and a much higher K rate.
Pick – NYM 1st 5 ML in a series of parlays
TEX @ DET
The 9-9 Rangers split the first two games of this series with the 10-7 Tigers winning 1-0 on Monday, but losing 4 -2 last night.
Starting Pitchers
1:10
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
HC%
|
K%
|
BB%
|
TEX
|
Dunning - R
|
|
(1/3)
|
(2/3)
|
1.17
|
4.50
|
6.58
|
6.25
|
4.77
|
4.50
|
0.327
|
0.393
|
54.3%
|
22.7%
|
12.0%
|
DET
|
Skubal - L
|
|
(2/3)
|
(1/3)
|
0.75
|
2.08
|
1.58
|
3.13
|
2.77
|
2.85
|
0.200
|
0.248
|
22.0%
|
30.8%
|
6.2%
|
Edge – DET
Dha Dunning has started three games for the Rangers with two grading as below average. He has given up 9 runs on 12 hits and 9 walks over 18 innings with 17 Ks. What jumps ou at me are the 9 walks in 18 innings. That’s just too many and will get dunning into trouble. His ERA is lousy and his ERA metrics are all even higher while his expected wOBA says that his wOBA should be more than 60 points higher than it actually is.
Tarik Skubal, on the other hand, is having a fine season with tw of his three starts for the Tigers grading as above average. He has given up just 4 runs on 9 hits and 4 walks over 17.1 innings with 20 Ks. Skubal’s WHIP and ERA are both excellent and so are his ERA metrics. There’s also that great 30% K rate.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
RIP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
TEX
|
2
|
3
|
1
|
2
|
70.1%
|
15
|
0.57
|
19
|
1.26
|
12
|
5.17
|
23
|
21.8%
|
21
|
9.4%
|
16
|
DET
|
7
|
2
|
5
|
4
|
83.0%
|
2
|
0.31
|
3
|
1.12
|
1
|
1.86
|
1
|
23.0%
|
14
|
9.3%
|
15
|
Edge – DET
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
HH%
|
Rank
|
BAR%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
TEX
|
5.39
|
9
|
0.342
|
5
|
121
|
5
|
0.145
|
14
|
10.4%
|
4
|
0.7
|
9
|
35.7%
|
24
|
5.7%
|
27
|
18.2%
|
3
|
DET
|
3.73
|
24
|
0.279
|
25
|
79
|
26
|
0.113
|
27
|
7.8%
|
23
|
0.1
|
16
|
36.5%
|
21
|
6.6%
|
22
|
24.9%
|
23
|
Edge – TEX
Conclusion: The only thing that concerns me is that the Tigers don’t hit well. Hell, they are still a bad hitting team. The Rangers haven’t exactly been hitting the cover off the ball in this series, but the offensive numbers are clearly better than the Tger’s, across the board. The Tigers do have the much better bullpen and the much better starting pitcher, so we’ll give it a shot.
Pick – DET 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays
ATL @ HOU
The 11-5 Braves have won both of the first two games of this series at the surprising 6-13 Astros winning 6-1 on Monday and 6-2 last night.
Starting Pitchers
2:10
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
HC%
|
K%
|
BB%
|
ATL
|
Fried - L
|
|
(1/3)
|
(2/3)
|
1.85
|
8.74
|
4.37
|
4.22
|
3.82
|
3.88
|
0.362
|
0.330
|
30.0%
|
17.9%
|
8.9%
|
HTN
|
France 0 R
|
|
(1/3)
|
(2/3)
|
1.89
|
8.22
|
4.99
|
4.09
|
5.64
|
5.23
|
0.381
|
0.35
|
25.0%
|
15.8%
|
9.2%
|
Edge ATL
Max Fried got off to a horrible start, giving up 11 runs (10 earned) in just 5 innings over his first two startsvut bounced back with a fine outing at the Marlins in his last start. He as still given up 12 runs (11 earned) on 16 hits and 5 walks over 11.1 innings with 10 Ks. It’s not pretty, but Fried seems to be workin his way back to the elite pitcher that he was before the injuries hit.
The Scary part, is that as bad as Fried’s numbers look right now, JP France’s look even worse almost across the borad.
Fried has a track record, a damned good one. France does not
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
RIP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
ATL
|
5
|
3
|
4
|
2
|
71.2%
|
13
|
0.51
|
15
|
1.35
|
22
|
4.06
|
14
|
21.9%
|
20
|
8.8%
|
13
|
HOU
|
2
|
6
|
1
|
4
|
65.4%
|
23
|
0.64
|
26
|
1.52
|
28
|
5.32
|
27
|
18.4%
|
29
|
11.2%
|
27
|
Edge – ATL
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
HH%
|
Rank
|
BAR%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
ATL
|
6.50
|
1
|
0.376
|
1
|
131
|
1
|
0.195
|
1
|
7.7%
|
25
|
1.6
|
5
|
46.3%
|
1
|
8.7%
|
6
|
21.6%
|
12
|
HOU
|
4.71
|
14
|
0.350
|
3
|
130
|
2
|
0.165
|
9
|
9.0%
|
14
|
-3.6
|
30
|
40.2%
|
9
|
7.9%
|
12
|
16.5%
|
1
|
Edge – ATL big
Conclusion: How did the Astros get so bad so fast? The Braves are the best hitting team in baseball and obviously the much better hitting team here. The Braves also have the much better bullpen and I think that they even have the better starting pitcher. One good start against the Marlins is a mighty small sample size. While I’m still not sure if Fried is really back, Iam sure that France never arrived.
Pick – ATL 1st 5 ML and full game ML in a series of parlays
KC @ CHI WS
The surprising 11-6 Royals beat the dismal 2-14 White Sox 2-0 Monday, behind yet another fine outing by Seth Lugo. Yesterday;s game was postponed to today.
Starting Pitchers
7:40
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
HC%
|
K%
|
BB%
|
GB%
|
KC
|
Singer - R
|
|
(2/3_
|
(0/3)
|
0.75
|
0.98
|
3.13
|
3.66
|
3.18
|
2.90
|
0.245
|
0.280
|
28.3%
|
25.7%
|
5.7%
|
65.2%
|
CHI WS
|
Cannon – R
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Edge – KC
Brdy Singer has pitched very well for the Royals in all three of his starts this season, giving up just 2 runs on 10 hits and 4 walks over 18,1 innings with 18 Ks.
The White Sox called up Jonathan Cannon from AAA Charlotte to start tonight’s game game against the Royals,
He will likely just be a spot start. Cannon, 23, posted a 1.63 WHIP and 2.79 ERA with an 11/5 K/BB ratio over 9.2 innings in his first two starts with Charlotte this season. The right-hander isn't regarded as a high-level pitching prospect and could be sent back to the minors immediately after Tuesday's outing.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
RIP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
|
HLD
|
KC
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
2
|
78.8%
|
6
|
0.47
|
11
|
1.27
|
14
|
4.21
|
17
|
20.0%
|
28
|
8.2%
|
10
|
|
8
|
CHI WS
|
1
|
5
|
2
|
4
|
65.3%
|
24
|
0.67
|
27
|
1.47
|
26
|
4.19
|
16
|
21.0%
|
23
|
11.2%
|
27
|
|
4
|
Edge – KC
The Royals’ pen isn’t great, but they have been decent, especially when compared to the White Sox pen, which has been just like the rest of their team - bad.
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
HH%
|
Rank
|
BAR%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
KC
|
5.12
|
11
|
0.327
|
11
|
108
|
10
|
0.174
|
6
|
8.4%
|
20
|
3.3
|
1
|
41.3%
|
7
|
10.4%
|
1
|
21.2%
|
10
|
CHI WS
|
2.13
|
30
|
0.266
|
29
|
69
|
29
|
0.110
|
28
|
8.1%
|
22
|
-2.3
|
29
|
34.5%
|
25
|
5.5%
|
28
|
25.0%
|
24
|
Edge – KC
Surprisingly, the Royals actually rank in the top 10 in almost everything except RPG (11th) and walk rate. By contrast, the White Sox have one of, if not the, worst offenses in baseball.
Conclusion: The Royals have all the edges here again tonight. They have the better starting pitcher, bullpen and offense. They are simply the better team. I’m always looking for opportunities to fade the White Sox and this looks like another good one.
Pick – KC 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays