For what it’s worth, this is taking longer than I thought, but tonight I finally finished my preview of the Seattle Mariners, the eighth and final team that I’ll be looking for opportunities to bet on.
The 2021 Mariners might have been the luckiest team in baseball that season, or at least that’s what I thought. They finished 90-72, but with a run differential of -51? They were also an amazing 33-19 in one-run games, including 14-7 in extra-inning games. I was honestly expecting some regression, going into 2022, but as it turned out, I was very wrong about that.
The 2022 Mariners again finished 90-72, 16 games behind the Astros in the AL West, but they also ended a 20-year playoff drought. Even better, they went on the road in the Wild Card Round against the Blue Jays and swept their best-of-three series in two games, erasing a seven-run deficit in the process in the decisive Game 2 win.
However, it didn’t end well, as the Mariners lost a devastating 1-0 18 inning marathon and got swept by the Astros in the ALDS, That series could have gone differently if only… If only Scott Servais hadn’t inexplicably gone to Robbie Ray in the 9th in Game 1, and if only Yordan Alvarez hadn’t blasted that walk-off three-run HR off of Ray. The Mariners were right there with a legitimate shot at taking out the eventual World Series champs.
The Mainers have now won 90 games in back-to-back seasons for the first time since 2002-03 and that might only be the beginning. This could be a really good team in 2023.
Like most teams, the Mariners made moves during the offseason. Their most significant losses were:
- Reliever Erik Swanson, who was traded to the Blue Jay along with prospect Adam Macko for OF Teoscar Hernandez,
- 2B Adam Frazier, who signed with the Orioles as a free agent, and
- OF Jesse Winker who was traded to the Brewers for 2B Kolten Wong.
Last season, Swanson emerged as one of the league's best setup men, posting a 0.91 WHIP, a 1.68 ERA, and an impressive 70/10 K:BB ratio over 53.2 innings for the Mariners. The right-hander improved his K rate by nearly 10%. Swanson's fastball/splitter combo was highly effective despite losing a bit of velocity on his four-seamer (93.6 mph). The contact he did give up wasn't hard (30.4%) either.
Frazier (.274 wOBA, 81 wRC+) hit a modest .238 last season. It was the second time in three seasons that he hit below .240. That's a problem for a player who's averaged just 8 HRs and 8 steals per 600 plate appearances over his career.
Winker (.313 wOBA, 108 wRC+) eclipsed 500 plate appearances for the first time in 2022, but he did so by playing through back and leg troubles which really affected his performance. Winker hit a career low .219, which was more than 50 points lower than his mediocre career average, and his hard-hit rate plummeted 12.5%, from 46.8% in 2021 to 34.3% last season. It came as no real surprise that the Mariners sent him to the Brewers for Kolten Wong in November.
The Mariners also made a few additions, most notably trading for OF Teoscar Hernandez and 2B Kolten Wong, as well as signing free agent OF AJ Pollock.
The Mariners’ starting rotation looks pretty damned good again this season, with Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, Robbie Ray, George Kirby and Marco Gonzalez.
Castillo, who was slowed by a sore shoulder in spring training last season, made his 2022 debut on May 9, posting a stellar 0.97 WHIP, a 1.59 ERA, and a 41:10 K:BB over 85 innings in what would be his final five starts for the Reds, before a deadline trade sent him to the Mariners. The right-hander paid immediate dividends, delivering a 4-2 record, with a 1.12 WHIP, a 3.17 ERA and a 77/17 K/BB ratio over 65.1 innings for the Mariners and helping them get to the ALDS. Castillo possesses a world-class change set up by a good 97-mph fastball. He seemed to get even better after the move to Seattle and the significant park upgrade that came along with it. Now the Mariners will have him for a full season.
2022 was a big season for Gilbert, as he delivered a 13-6 record, with a 1.18 WHIP, a 3.20 ERA and a 174/49 K/BB ratio over 185.2 innings. Gilbert pitched with a poise and polish not often seen in a 25-year-old. He commanded his 96.1-mph fastball, as well as an assortment of four other pitches, which kept opposing hitters off-balance. While none of his other pitches stand out, his fastball command is what makes Gilbert special. He is however, somewhat prone to the long ball, giving up 19 HRs last season. I also have some concern about Gilbert’s 45.6% hard-hit rate. It will be interesting to see how the new balanced schedule impacts Gilbert, since he had a 2.69 ERA against the bottom feeders of the AL West last season, but a 3.45 ERA against the rest of the league.
Fresh off winning the AL Cy Young award with the Blue Jays in 2021, Ray joined the Mariners and helped them break a 20-year playoff drought. However, the left-hander saw his effectiveness drop pretty much across the board last season, finishing 12-12, with a 1.19 WHIP, a 3.71 ERA, and a 212/62 K/BB ratio over 189 innings. He them gave up 4 runs in 3 innings in the wild-card round, and took that awful loss out of the bullpen in Game 1 of the ALDS without recording an out. It was a rough way to end the 2022 season, giving up 21 earned runs in his final 31 innings. Still, Ray had a fine 27.4% K rate and a solid 8% walk rate last season. Now 31, Ray probably won't be contending for another Cy Young Award, but he should remain a strong mid-rotation piece for the Mariners as long as he continues to keep the walks down.
Last season, Kirby delivered an 8-5 record with a 1.29 WHIP, a 3.39 ERA and a 133/22 K/BB ratio over 120 innings for the Mariners. His calling card was his superb command of his 95.4-mph heater, with just 22 walks last season. Kirby also only gave up 1 HR in 65.2 second half innings! He went from a .327 wOBA against in the first half to a .278 wOBA against in the second. He just keeps filling the strike zone with that heater which he throws 45% of the time, and which the league hit only .221 against last season. Unfortunately, the rest of his repertoire is quite hittable, in that every other pitch he threw had an opponents' batting average of .266 or higher. If he can improve any of his other pitches, Kirby could take a big step forward in 2022. He is reportedly experimenting with a splitter this spring.
For the life of me, I can’t figure out how Gonzales is still a part of this Mariners’ rotation. He somehow finished 12-8 last season, with a 1.33 WHIP, a 4.13 ERA and a 103/50 K/BB ratio over 183 innings. Between the 194 hits and the 50 walks that he gave up, that’s a total of 244 in just 183 innings! While the veteran lefty has never been a pitcher who generates Ks, his 13.2% K rate in 2022 was pathetic, 4.6% lower than his lousy career rate and 5.3% lower than 2021. No other qualified starter finished within three points of that! Dallas Keuchel did match that figure in 2021 and he found himself out of the league one year later. That’s the biggest downside for Gonzalez, who also lacks a strong GB rate, just 42% last season. That said, throwing his home games at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park helps, as does his 6.4% walk rate.
This rotation is talented…at least one through four it is. Gonzalez is what he is and until someone better comes along, he’ll just have to do.
Offensively, this Mariners lineup will look a little different than it did a season ago, with Hernandez and Wong replacing Winker and Frazier.
Last season, the Mariners averaged a mediocre 4.27 runs per game (rank #17), with a .310 wOBA (rank #14), and aa 107 wRC+ (rank #8). They should be better this season, after upgrading at 2B with Wong replacing Frazier and in the OF with Hernandez replacing Winker.
A calf strain cost 2B Kolten Wong (.336 wOBA, 117 wRC+) about three weeks last season. He would go on to hit .281 with 9 HRs and 7 steals in 64 games after the All-Star break, despite losing playing time v lefties. Wong struggled v lefties hitting just .138 against them. He did hit .294 against them in 2021, but he could find himself in a platoon with Dylan Moore, should he struggle against them again this season. That’s why Wong has made at least 500 plate appearances just twice in the majors and yet he has posted double-digit HRS and SBs five times. However, at 32, his speed may be waning some.
As a rookie CF Julio Rodriguez (.366 wOBA, 146 wRC+) did not disappoint last season, hitting .284 with 28 HRs, 84 runs scored, 75 RBIs and 25 steals. That was good enough to earned him the AL Rookie of the Year award. His season could have been even better, but wrist and back issues limited him to just 41 games after the AS break. Rodriguez’s 25.9% K rate and 7.1% walk rate needs improvement, but that should come as the 22-year-old continues to develop and becomes more familiar with the league’s pitchers. It should be noted that, despite the injuries that limited him to 41 games over the second half, he went from a 136 wRC+ in the first half to a 169 wRC+ in the second and cut his K rate by nearly 3% in the process. Rodriguez’s ceiling is sky-high and an MVP award is not inconceivable at some point.
1B Ty France (.340 wOBA, 126 wRC+) hit .274 with 20
HRs and 83 RBIs last season. France has now posted a wRC+ of 133, 130 and 126 over the past three seasons.
Heading into his final season before free agency, the Blue Jays decided to trade RF Teoscar Hernandez (.343 wOBA, 129 wRC+) to the Mariners. While Hernandez didn't come all that close to replicating his All-Star 2021 season, hitting just .267, he did hit 25 HRs while scoring 71 runs and driving in 75. It was the third consecutive full season that he’s hit at least 25 HRs. While the move does come with a park downgrade, Hernandez has been an above average hitter in each of the last six seasons, posting a wRC+ of 132 and 129 over the last two and had an elite 52.7% hard-hit rate last season. While his defense leaves a lot to be desired, that won’t cost him playing time because the M's need his bat in the lineup every day.
Despite the trade that sent 3B Eugenio Suarez (.344 wOBA, 131 wRC+) from the Reds to the Mariners last March, Suarez continued to do what he always does, walk, strike out and hit HRs. He hit just .236, but also clubbed 31 HRs and drove in 87 runs. Suarez’s K rate rose to a career-high 31.2%, continuing what is now a five-year trend. However, he also posted an 11.6% walk rate, as well as his second straight 31 HR season. Suarez typically hits around 30 HRs with about 80 RBIs. I espect he’ll do so again this season.
C Cal Raleigh (.330 wOBA, 121 wRC+) had a breakout sophomore season despite hitting just .211, but with 27 HRs and 63 RBIs as well as playing stellar defense. His 121 wRC+ was well above the 89 that the catching position as a whole produced league-wide. Raleigh’s story is raw power and he has plenty of it with the ability to launch a baseball to all fields.
LF Jarred Kelenic’s (.238 wOBA, 55 wRC+) sophomore season did not go well for the 23-year-old. A strong spring earned him the LF job, but Kelenic was soon demoted to AAA Tacoma. He earned another call-up in late July but was again overmatched by MLB pitching so his stay was again short-lived. Kelenic rejoined the Mariners in late September. His final stats were pretty ugly, a .147 batting average with 7 HRs, 17 RBIs and a 33.7% k rate in 394 plate appearances. Whether it’s pitch recognition or timing, Kelenic clearly has issues, but they should be fixable. The catch is that the Mariners are in win now mode and they have depth in the OF, so Kelenic pretty much has to produce. The talent is there, but he’ll be on a short leash.
DH AJ Pollock (.297 wOBA, 92 wRC+) was acquired by the White Sox last April, hitting .245 with 14 HRs and 56 RBIs in 138 games, The veteran outfielder stayed healthy for the most part but saw his power drop significantly, as his .143 ISO was among the lowest of his career and almost 100 point lower than his .240 in 2021 with the Dodgers. Injuries are usually the main concern for Pollock, so it's particularly concerning to see his production drop in a season when he had only one brief stay on the IL. Now entering his age-35 season, it wouldn’t be wise to expect similar injury luck again in 2023, given Pollock's history. Still, Pollock could be a solid “buy-low” type. After all, he had posted an above average wRC+ for five straight seasons before 2022 and in seven of the last eight. He’s on the wrong side of 35, but he can DH and play the OF. He is also now part of a much better lineup.
SS J.P. Crawford (/306 wOBA, 104 wRC+) hit just .243 last season with 6 HRs, 57 runs scored and 42 driven in. His usually-strong defense also regressed. Crawford's contact and on-base skills, a 13.3% K rate and 11.6% walk rate) remain solid, and even in a down season, he still posted a slightly better than average 104 wRC+, despite a .275 BABIP that was 45 points lower than the .320 that he had in2021.
The Mariners’ offense should be at least as good as it was last season and probably better. This is one of the deepest lineups in baseball. If Pollock returns to form and Kelenic plays up to the ability that made him a highly-touted prospect, we could see a lineup where every hitter will be at least league average or better. And, if it’s not Pollock or Kelenic, there’s always Tommy La Stella, Dylan Moore and Sam Haggerty, some really nice bench pieces.
That brings us to the Mariners’ bullpen. Last season, the Mariner pen was very good. Collectively, this unit posted a 34-20 record with 40 saves in 55 save opportunities (72.7%), (rank #5) and gave up .523 runs per inning pitched (rank #5). They ranked 2nd in WHIP (1.08), 6th d in ERA (3.33), 5th in strand rate (75.3%), 5th in K rate (26.6%), 5th in walk rate (8.2%) and 13th in WAR (4.1). The Mariners’ pen also had the lowest hard-hit% against at 32.9%, which was more than over a full percent better than any other unit, as well as the lowest exit velocity against at 86.8-mph.
From that bullpen, the Mariners did lose Swanson, who last season emerged as one of the league's best setup men, posting a 0.91 WHIP, a 1.68 ERA, with an impressive 70/10 K:BB ratio over 53.2 innings. Still, even with Swanson now in Toronto, this bullpen has incredible upside.
As I have harped about, “ad nauseum” in almost every preview that I’ve posted, bullpen depth is crucial for any team to be taken seriously as a contender and the Mariners have one of the deepest.
Closer Paul Sevald notched a career high 20 saves in 25 save opportunities last season, with a career-best 0.77 WHIP that was the 5th best among qualified relievers, and a 2.67 ERA. However, the 32-year-old righty did give up 14 HRs. While Sewald averaged a career-best 92.5-mph on his 4-seamer, he threw his slider at the highest rate of his career, nearly 50% of the time. Both pitches were effective, but his K rate plummeted from a career-best 29.4% in 2021 to 29.8%, a near 10% drop. It will be interesting to see how the Mariners manage the back-end of their very talented bullpen moving forward.
It is quite possible that the Mariners will give more save opportunities to Andres Munoz, who was the league's breakout reliever in 2021, overcoming his biggest obstacle (health) to pitch a career-high 65 remarkable innings, accumulating 4 saves and 22 holds with a 0.89 WHIP and 2.49 ERA. The 24-year-old righty averaged 100.3 mph on his fastball. His 96/15 K/BB ratio ranked 2nd among qualified relievers, while his 38.7% K rate ranked 4th- thanks to a slider that was considered among the best pitches in the league. Munoz's stuff nis so good that he could replace Sevald as the Mariners’ primary closer in 2023, if he can stay healthy after offseason foot surgery.
Penn Murfee is believed to have the inside track for a top setup role with the Mariners in 2023. The 28-year-old righty was very impressive as a rookie in 2022, delivering a 4-0 record and 7 holds with a 0.95 WHIP, a 2.99 ERA, a 27.9% k rate and a 76/18 K/BB ratio over 69.1 innings.
It looks like Matt Festa and Matt Brash will vie for the high-leverage innings that went to Swanson last season.
The 30-year-old Festa logged a career-high 54 innings in 2022, delivered a 2-0 record, with 2 saves and 6 holds, while posting a 1.13 WHIP and a 4.17 ERA, and a 64/18 K/BB ratio.
Brash opened last season in the Mariners' starting rotation, but an ugly 2.05 WHIP and 17 walks through five starts earned him, a demotion to AAA. After two months, he returned as a reliever. The right-hander fared much better in that role, posting a 1.24 WHIP and a 2.35 ERA, with a 43/16 K:BB ratio over his final 30.2 innings.
Hopefully, a left-handed reliever will emerge during spring training.
The Mariners have a very good ballclub. The first five hitters in their lineup are all very good, but there are weaknesses at the bottom. The top four in the starting rotation are also very good, but Marco Gonzalez is what he is, a liability. The bullpen needs a lefty, but otherwise totally rocks. Is this team good enough to dethrone the Astros in the AL West? They just might be. They definitely look like a playoff team to me, and a very dangerous one at that.
This concludes my previews of the MLB teams that I will be looking to bet on this season. Next up, I‘ll break down the teams final team that I will be looking to bet against this season, First up will be the Colorado Rockies. Until then, BOL and stay well all.