NTM @ ATL
Starting Pitchers
7:20
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
HC%
|
GB%
|
NYM
|
deGrom - R
|
(3/3)
|
(0/3)
|
0.42
|
1.62
|
1.48
|
0.72
|
0.82
|
0.135
|
0.189
|
50.0%
|
1.8%
|
29.6%
|
40.7%
|
ATL
|
Fried - L
|
(19/22)
|
(3/22)
|
1.08
|
2.60
|
2.86
|
2.45
|
3.10
|
0.26
|
0.266
|
22.9%
|
4.5%
|
32.8%
|
50.4%
|
Edge – NYM
Bullpens
N/A – This is a 1st 5 only bet
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
HardHit%
|
Rank
|
Barrel%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
NYM
|
4.76
|
4
|
0.323
|
5
|
113
|
4
|
61.7
|
4
|
0.149
|
18
|
8.0%
|
13
|
36.5%
|
21
|
7.0%
|
18
|
19.8%
|
4
|
ATL
|
4.89
|
3
|
0.331
|
3
|
109
|
8
|
56.6
|
6
|
0.195
|
1
|
7.6%
|
23
|
43.5%
|
2
|
11.2%
|
1
|
24.5%
|
27
|
Edge – None
Conclusion: The Braves won the first two games of this series 13-1 on Monday and 5-0 Tuesday night, but the Mets got one back last night 9-5 to extend their lead in the NL East to 2.5 games. Offensively these teams look very close. In this series the Braves have outscored the Mets23-10. However, all that should change again tonight when Jacob deGrom faces off with Max Fried.
Jacob deGrom has now started 3 games and all three have graded as above average. In those 3 starts, deGrom has given up just 3 runs on 6 hits and a walk over 16.2 innings with a whopping 28 Ks. deGrom’s performance since returning from the IL has been absolutely astounding. He’s been lights out! His numbers are unbelievably good – a 0.42 WHIP (0.48 lower that his career 1.00 WHIP), a 1.62 ERA (-.97 lower than his career 2.49 ERA), ERA metrics that are all under 2.00, a .135 wOBA (.181 lower than his career .316 wOBA), a .189 xwOBA (.126 lower than his career .315 xwOBA), and a 50% K rate (19.5% higher than his career K rate). My point is that those numbers are unreal , and as good as deGrom I, he can’t possibly sustain them and we shouldn’t expect him to. deGrom will still be very good, possibly the best pitcher in baseball, but he won’t be that good. It may not happen tonight. Hell, I’m betting that it doesn’t happen tonight, but deGrom will eventually regress to the norm. deGrom faced the Braves 11 days ago, giving up 2 tuns on 1 hit and a walk over 5.2 innings while striking out 12.
Max Fried will make his first start since Aug. 6 after clearing MLB's concussion protocol. Fried has started 22 games with 19 grading as above average and just three grading as below. His WHIP iand ERA are both very good with ERA metrics that are totally consistent with his ERA. His wOBA and xwOBA are both much lower than league average. Fried’s K rate is solid and he combines it with low walk and hard contact rates as well as an excellent GB rate. Fried was having a great season before going down with the concussion. Fried will be facing the Mets for the 4th time this season. In his 3 previous starts against them, posting a 1-2 record and giving up 8 runs (6 earned) on 15 hits and 6 walks over 17 innings with 16 Ks. That comes out to a 1.24 WHIP and a 3.18 ERA.
Both of these teams can hit. They’ve already proven that in this series. This bet is about the two starting pitchers and make no mistake, there are both elite. Fried was having a great season when he went down, but he did miss almost 2 weeks and that matters. Pitchers are creatures of habit and for a guy who’s used to pitching every five days 12 days is a long time to be inactive. DeGrom has been magnificent with 22 Ks in his last 2 starts. The Braves were trailing after five innings in all three of Fried’s starts against the Mets this season 3-0, 2-0 and 2-1. That same scenario seems likely, especially with deGrom currently being the more dominant starting pitcher. As well as Fried has pitched, deGrom has pitched better and I’m not sure how sharp Fried will be after his almost two-week layoff. I’ll go with the guy who’s been so damned good since returning that I sometimes wonder if he’s even really human. I think that deGrom is the better pitcher in this matchup and I’m not betting against him
Pick – NYM 1st 5 ML in a few parlays.
Despite the potency of these two offenses, with these two pitchers I expect runs to be at a premium, so I’ll risk a unit at even money of the 1st 5 staying under 3.
2nd Pick – 1st 5 Under 3 (+100 for 1 unit)