I did add the Cards 1st 5 and full game MLs to my parlay card. It was to late to add them to the two early afternoon games, but added them to everything else. I didn’t expect the Phils to not score this afternoon, but looks like everthing else in on track. I’’ hope that’s tru of the evening games. Here are the breakdowns.
DET @ CLEV
Starting Pitchers
DET
|
Norris - L
|
(1/2)
|
(1/2)
|
1.44
|
5.97
|
4.58
|
5.45
|
4.02
|
0.350
|
0.331
|
28.8%
|
15.0%
|
39.8%
|
44.6%
|
CLEV
|
Quantrill - R
|
(13/22)
|
(9/22)
|
1.22
|
3.67
|
4.42
|
4.38
|
4.50
|
0.314
|
0.326
|
18.4%
|
6.8%
|
35.0%
|
41.2%
|
Edge – CLEV
Bullpens
Team
|
W-L
|
SV/SVO
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
DET
|
23-25
|
26/36
|
0.43
|
7
|
1.23
|
11
|
3.30
|
6
|
71.2%
|
18
|
22.6%
|
20
|
9.1%
|
16
|
CLEV
|
32-14
|
31/43
|
0.42
|
6
|
1.18
|
5
|
3.40
|
9
|
74.7%
|
7
|
25.6%
|
7
|
8.5%
|
6
|
Edge – CLEV
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
HardHit%
|
Rank
|
Barrel%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
DET
|
3.19
|
30
|
0.271
|
30
|
74
|
30
|
-132.6
|
30
|
0.105
|
30
|
6.4%
|
29
|
35.8%
|
25
|
5.9%
|
28
|
24.6%
|
28
|
CLEV
|
4.35
|
16
|
0.307
|
16
|
100
|
15
|
8.4
|
14
|
0.134
|
26
|
7.4%
|
25
|
33.9%
|
30
|
5.2%
|
30
|
18.3%
|
1
|
Edge – CLEV
Conclusion: These two teams split two games on Monday and the Tigers eked out a 4-3 win yesterday. The Guardians still lead the AL Centra, but only by 1 game over the Twins. After an 8-game losing streak, the Tigers have now won 2 in a row, but are still going nowhere. Offensively, the Guardians are still rmediocre, but that should still make them much better than the anemic Tigers who possess the worst offense in the league. The Guardians also have a very good bullpen, one that rates as better than the Tigers pen, which is the strongest part of their team. That brings us to the two starting pitchers.
Daniel Norris Norris will be making his second start for the Tigers this season following his call-up from Triple-A Toledo last week. In his first one, he tossed 4.2 scoreless innings v the White Sox on Friday, giving up 4 hits and 2 walks while striking out 1 in a no-decision. Between that outing and 27 relief appearances earlier this season for the Cubs, Norris has a very hig WHIP and ERA. His ERA metrics are a little better but still not very good with a wOBA and xwOBA that are both higher than league average. Norris has a good K rate, and solid GB rate, but a sky-high walk rate. I’ll need to see more than 1one good outing before I can back Norris.
Cal Quantrill has now started 22 games for the Guardians this season with 13 grading as above average and 9 grading as below. His WHIP and ERA are both solid, but with ERA metrics hat are all at least a half a run higher than his ERA. His wOBA is right around league average and his xwOBA is a little higher. Quantrill doesn’t miss many bats, but his walk rate is passable. His profile isn’t all that impressive, but other than a poor K rate, all the other stats tillt to Quantrill.
The Guardians are the better team here and Quntrill is better than Norris. I don’t trust Quantrill enough for a 1st five, but I expect the Guardians to bounce back and get the W.
Pick – CLEV full game ML in a series of parlays.
NTM @ ATL
Starting Pitchers
7:20
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
HC%
|
GB%
|
NYM
|
Scherzer - R
|
(14/16)
|
(2/16)
|
0.93
|
1.93
|
2.80
|
2.40
|
3.22
|
0.253
|
0.263
|
31.3%
|
4.2%
|
31.5%
|
28.7%
|
ATL
|
Odorizzi - R
|
(7/14)
|
(7/14)
|
1.27
|
3.80
|
4.02
|
3.78
|
4.71
|
0.299
|
0.312
|
18.1%
|
7.3%
|
32.1%
|
31.8%
|
Edge – NYM big
Bullpens
N/A – This is a 1st 5 only bet
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
HardHit%
|
Rank
|
Barrel%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
NYM
|
4.73
|
4
|
0.323
|
5
|
113
|
4
|
61.7
|
4
|
0.149
|
18
|
8.0%
|
13
|
36.5%
|
21
|
7.0%
|
18
|
19.8%
|
4
|
ATL
|
4.87
|
3
|
0.331
|
3
|
109
|
8
|
56.6
|
6
|
0.195
|
1
|
7.6%
|
23
|
43.5%
|
2
|
11.2%
|
1
|
24.5%
|
27
|
Edge – None
Conclusion: The Braves won the first two games of this series 13-1 on Monday and 5-0 last night, to pull within 3.5 games of the Mets in the NL East. Offensively these teams look very clos on paper, but in this series the Braves have outscored the Mets18-1. However, all that should change tonight when Max Scherzer faces off with Jake Odorizzi.
Scherzer has now started 16 games for the Mets with 14 grading as above average and just 2 grading as below. He also has a sub 1.00 WHIP and a sub 2.00 ERA. His ERA metrics while about a half a run higher than his ERA, are all under 3.00 and very good. Both his wOBA and xwOBA are well below league average as well. Shcherzer’s K rate is elite with a solid walk rate and a very low hard contact rate to go with it. If Scherzer has any weakness, it’s probably that he sometimes can be HR prone, yet he’s only given up 8 this season. Those are the kind of numbers that you expect from an ace and Scherzer is still a legitimate ace, even at 37.
Before hitting the IL, Jake Odorizzi was pitching fairly well for the Astros earlier this season, but that was then. Odorizzi has now started 14 games, 12 for the Astros and 2 for the Braves, with 7 grading as above average and 7 grading as below average. His WHIP and ERA are both mediocre and his ERA metrics are mostly even higher than his ERA. We see the same pattern with Odorizzi’s xwOBA, which is also a little higher than his actual wOBA. A poor K rate and a relatively high walk rate for a guy that doesn’t miss many bats are reasons why his metrics are higher than his actual ERA and wOBA. On the plus side, Odorizzi doesn’t give up a lot of hard contact.
Odorizzi is a mediocre starting pitcher and always has been. By cont4rast Max Scherzer is elite and that’s where this bet is coming from.
Pick – NYM 1st 5 ML in a series of parlays.
COL @ STL
Starting Pitchers
7:45
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
HC%
|
GB%
|
COL
|
Marquez - R
|
(10/22)
|
(11/22)
|
1.42
|
5.08
|
4.73
|
4.70
|
3.93
|
0.349
|
0.336
|
18.8%
|
8.0%
|
47.1%
|
47.6%
|
STL
|
Montgomery - L
|
(16/23)
|
(7/23)
|
1.07
|
3.37
|
4.07
|
3.76
|
3.58
|
0.285
|
0.314
|
20.8%
|
5.1%
|
35.6%
|
46.8%
|
Edge – STL
Bullpens
Team
|
W-L
|
SV/SVO
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
COL
|
21-22
|
32/45
|
0.59
|
29
|
1.41
|
28
|
4.71
|
29
|
65.9%
|
30
|
20.2%
|
30
|
10.0%
|
25
|
STL
|
29-14
|
27/41
|
0.45
|
10
|
1.24
|
15
|
3.78
|
12
|
73.9%
|
11
|
21.6%
|
24
|
8.7%
|
11
|
Edge – STL
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
HardHit%
|
Rank
|
Barrel%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
COL
|
4.54
|
9
|
0.321
|
9
|
92
|
22
|
-47.0
|
25
|
0.144
|
19
|
7.7%
|
20
|
36.6%
|
20
|
6.1%
|
26
|
20.5%
|
5
|
STL
|
4.70
|
5
|
0.323
|
5
|
111
|
6
|
64.0
|
3
|
0.164
|
9
|
8.5%
|
9
|
36.3%
|
23
|
7.4%
|
15
|
20.5%
|
5
|
Edge – STL
Conclusion: The Cards won a close one 5-4 last night and still lead the Brewers by 2 games in the NL Central, while the Rockies aren’t contending for anything this season. Offensively, the Cards have a huge edge here. The Rockies are very dependent on Coors field for a lot of their offense, averaging 5.67 runs per game at Coors and just 3.24 on the road. As for the the bullpens, that looks like a mismatch as well with the Cards holding almost every edge. That leave the two starting pitchers.
German Marquez hasn’t be4en all that good this season. He has now started 22 games with 10 grading as above average, 1 grading as average and 11 grading as below. However, 5 of his last 6 starts have graded as above average so Marquez has been somewhat better. Stii, his WHIP and ERA are both very high andhis ERA metrics aren’t far behind. His wOBA and xwOBA are both much higher than league average with a pedestrian K rate, high walk rate and very high hard contact rate. Marquez does generate GBs, but that’s about it for true positives.
Jordan Montgomery has now started 23 games, 21 with the Yankees and 2 with the Cards this season with 16 grading as above average and 7 grading s below. He has an excellent WHIP and a good ERA, and while his ERA metrics are all between up to a half a run higher than his ERA, they are still decent. That discrepancy is at least partially because of a low .264 BABIP that is about 25 points lower than his career average. We see the same pattern with his xwOBA being about 30 points higher than his wOBA, but still right around league average. Montgomery doesn’t miss that many bats either , but he also doesn’t walk many and also sports a low hard hit rate and a good GB rate.
The Cards are the much better team, especially at home, Montgomery is the better starting pitcher abd I’m always looking to fade the Rockies away from Coors.
Pick – STL 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays
HTN @ CHI WS
Starting Pitchers
8:10
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
HC%
|
GB%
|
HTN
|
Valdez - L
|
(19/22)
|
(3/22)
|
1.13
|
2.73
|
3.26
|
3.22
|
3.17
|
0.265
|
0.283
|
22.1%
|
8.4%
|
38.3%
|
67.3%
|
CHI WS
|
Kopech - R
|
(13/21)
|
(8/21)
|
1.18
|
3.18
|
3.82
|
4.41
|
4.69
|
0.285
|
0.305
|
26.9%
|
11.4%
|
40.7%
|
35.1%
|
Edge – HTN
Bullpens
N/A – This is a 1st 5 only bet
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
HardHit%
|
Rank
|
Barrel%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
HTN
|
4.49
|
12
|
0.323
|
5
|
114
|
3
|
61.2
|
5
|
0.180
|
4
|
9.0%
|
8
|
39.5%
|
9
|
8.4%
|
10
|
19.5%
|
2
|
CHI WS
|
4.26
|
19
|
0.307
|
16
|
101
|
13
|
4.8
|
15
|
0.128
|
28
|
6.2%
|
30
|
39.8%
|
8
|
7.3%
|
16
|
20.5%
|
5
|
Edge – HTN
Conclusion: The White Sox won last night 4-3 in the battle f the aces that wasn’t and are now just 1 game behind the Guardians in the AL Central. The Astros still lead the AL West by a comfortable 11 games. Offensively, The Astros hold most of the edges here. That leaves the two starting pitchers and while this may not be as glamorous as last night matchup, it should still be a good one.
Framber Valdez has now started 22 games with 19 of them grading as above average and just 3 grading as below. Not only does Valdez only have three below average starts, but two of them were his second and third starts of the season. Since then, he has reeled off 18 above average starts to just 1 below average one. Valdez has given up more than 3 earned runs just once and in 14 on his 22 starts it was 2 or less. When he gets in trouble, it’s usually because of his control. It can be iffy. In his three below average starts he walked 12. His WHIP is still good despite the occasional control lapses and his ERA is also very good. His ERA metrics are all about a little higher than his ERA, probably because of the walks, but they are still quite good. However, Valdez had walked 3 or more batters in 6 of his last 13 starts. His wOBA and xwOBA are both lower than league average and he’s still generating an incredible GB rate. It’s just the damned walks and if Valdez can keep those down, he can be something really special. Hell, he’s already pretty damned special.
Michael Kopech has started 21 games for the White Sox this season with 13 grading as above average and 8 grading as below. His WHIP and ERA are both very good, but his ERA metrics are all at least a half to a full run higher than his ERA. That’s probably because of his very low .225 BABIP, which is 40 points lower than his career rate, and should rise. The same applies to his xwOBA which is 20 points higher than his wOBA . Kopecj;s K rate is solid, but his walk rate is even higher than Valdez’s.
The Astros are the better team are Valdez is the better starting pitcher, but I worry about motivation. The Astros don’t need this game, the the White Sox do, and the Astros do have a tendency too let down against week opponents, but I’ll risk it for five innings.
Pick – HTN 1st 5 ML in a series of parlays
LAD @ MIL
Starting Pitchers
8:10
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
HC%
|
GB%
|
LAD
|
Gonsolin - R
|
(14/21)
|
(7/21)
|
0.89
|
2.24
|
3.03
|
3.46
|
3.81
|
0.245
|
0.273
|
23.5%
|
7.2%
|
32.7%
|
43.0%
|
MIL
|
Lauer - L
|
(10/21)
|
(11/21)
|
1.21
|
3.64
|
4.13
|
4.68
|
4.14
|
0.32
|
0.316
|
23.4%
|
8.5%
|
38.6%
|
32.4%
|
Edge – LAD
Bullpens
Team
|
W-L
|
SV/SVO
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
LAD
|
26-18
|
32/43
|
0.38
|
3
|
1.08
|
1
|
3.13
|
4
|
75.5%
|
5
|
26.2%
|
5
|
7.2%
|
1
|
MIL
|
25-20
|
40/57
|
0.49
|
17
|
1.24
|
15
|
3.95
|
19
|
73.1%
|
12
|
25.5%
|
8
|
8.8%
|
13
|
Edge - LAD
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
HardHit%
|
Rank
|
Barrel%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
LAD
|
5.39
|
1
|
0.341
|
1
|
121
|
1
|
126.4
|
1
|
0.190
|
3
|
9.7%
|
2
|
42.0%
|
4
|
9.6%
|
3
|
21.4%
|
10
|
MIL
|
4.53
|
10
|
0.319
|
10
|
103
|
11
|
15.0
|
12
|
0.175
|
5
|
9.3%
|
6
|
39.3%
|
10
|
8.6%
|
6
|
23.3%
|
20
|
Edge – LAD big
Conclusion: The Brewers pulled out a 5-4 win in 11 inning last night after the Dodger won 4-0 on Monday night. The Dodgers now lead the Padres by 18 games in the NL West. This games looks pretty meaningless for them, but the Brewers trail the Cards by 2 game in the NL Central and are also 2 games out in the race for the final NL wild card spot. They need this game. The Dodgers have the way better offense. As for the two bullpens, the numbers give the Dodgers an edge, but I don’t trust close Craig Kembrel. That said the Brewers pen has become a hot mess with Josh Hander gone. That leaves the starting pitchers.
Tony Gonsolin didn’t look so red hot in the AS game and in his first start after it, the Nats got to him for 4 runs on 6 hits and 4 walks over 6 innings. However, he righted the ship since then. Gonsolin was due for some regression and it finally happened. That said, Gonsolin still has twice as many above average starts (14) as below average ones (7). His numbers are still outstanding and a hell of lot better than Eric Lauer’s in every single stat.
I always thought that Eric Lauer could be a quality starting pitcher with a good team and lo and behold, he’s a decent starting pitcher with the Brewers. Lauer has started 21 games for the Brewers, but with more below average starts (11) than above average ones (10). His WHIP and ERA are both solid, but his ERA metrics are all about a half a run higher than his ERA. Lauer’s wOBA and xwOBA are both slightly higher than league average. His K rate is good and his walk rate is passable.
If this game matters at all to the Dodgers, they should bounce back here. They are the better team and Gonsolin, even with some regression factor in si still better than Lauer.
Pick – LAD 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays