SEA @ LAA
Starting Pitchers
9:38
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
HC%
|
GB%
|
SEA
|
Castillo 0 R
|
(12/16
|
(4/16
|
1.04
|
2.71
|
3.29
|
3.17
|
3.37
|
0.261
|
0.284
|
26.1%
|
8.2%
|
36.0%
|
45.1%
|
LAA
|
Ohtani - R
|
(13/19)
|
(6/19)
|
0.20
|
2.68
|
2.68
|
2.45
|
2.38
|
0.267
|
0.257
|
35.2%
|
6.1%
|
36.0%
|
39.8%
|
Edge – LAA slight
Bullpens
N/A – This is a 1st 5 only bet
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
HardHit%
|
Rank
|
Barrel%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
SEA
|
4.02
|
23
|
0.307
|
15
|
105
|
9
|
14.2
|
12
|
0.152
|
16
|
9.5%
|
4
|
35.1%
|
27
|
7.7%
|
13
|
22.7%
|
17
|
LAA
|
3.86
|
25
|
0.296
|
26
|
92
|
23
|
-35.3
|
23
|
0.153
|
15
|
8.1%
|
13
|
37.5%
|
15
|
8.7%
|
7
|
26.0%
|
30
|
Edge – SEA slight
Conclusion: For me this one is simple. We have two elite pitchers facing two lousy offenses.
Pick – 1st 5 Under 3.5
ARIZ @ SF
Starting Pitchers
9:45
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
HC%
|
GB%
|
ARIZ
|
Bumgarner - L
|
(9/23)
|
(14/23)
|
1.40
|
4.13
|
5.07
|
4.51
|
4.77
|
0.344
|
0.346
|
18.6%
|
6.6%
|
42.7%
|
38.4%
|
SF
|
Cobb - R
|
(9/18)
|
(7/18)
|
1.29
|
4.15
|
2.96
|
2.92
|
2.83
|
0.297
|
0.270
|
25.3%
|
7.1%
|
35.0%
|
61.1%
|
Edge – SF
Bullpens
Team
|
W-L
|
SV/SVO
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
ARIZ
|
22-29
|
26/42
|
0.53
|
23
|
1.35
|
25
|
4.16
|
23
|
69.8%
|
22
|
20.0%
|
30
|
8.8%
|
12
|
SF
|
21-24
|
25/39
|
0.56
|
25
|
1.39
|
26
|
4.45
|
26
|
67.8%
|
28
|
20.2%
|
29
|
8.4%
|
7
|
Edge – None
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
HardHit%
|
Rank
|
Barrel%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
ARI
|
4.29
|
17
|
0.304
|
19
|
91
|
26
|
-23.9
|
22
|
0.159
|
10
|
9.4%
|
6
|
36.2%
|
23
|
7.1%
|
17
|
22.3%
|
16
|
SF
|
4.56
|
10
|
0.313
|
13
|
103
|
12
|
16.9
|
11
|
0.158
|
11
|
9.6%
|
2
|
36.9%
|
19
|
7.9%
|
12
|
22.9%
|
18
|
Edge – SF
Conclusion: The Giants won a close one yesterday 8-7 to sweep the Pirates abd are only 6 out in the NL Wild card race. The Dbacks are still playing hard, but playing for next season. Offensively, this looks like a mismatch. The Giants have an above average offense, while the Dbacks don’t. As for the two bullpens, they both suck, so I’ll call that a wash. That brings us to the two starting pitchers.
Madison Bumgarner has seen his better days. He has more below average starts (14) than above average ones (0). His WHIP is high and his ERA is mediocre. However, his ERA metrics are all even higher than his mediocre ERA. That’s not a good sign. Factors there include a K rate that’s been in decline for quite a while now and is about 7% lower than his career rate. Bumgarner still has his moments, but they’ve become fewer and fewer with each passing season. Bumgarner’s still capable of an occasional strong outing or even a few of them, but he’s now just a shell of the ace that h was back in the day with the Giants.
Alex Cobb has started 18 games with 9 grading as above average and 7 grading as below. His WHIP and ERA are both mediocre, but his ERA metricsare all lower than his ERA? By way of explanation, I see a strand rate that’s more than 10% lower than his career rate and a BABIP that’s more than 33 points higher than his career average. Cobb also has an elite K rate, with a decent walk rate, but a low hard contact rate and an incredibly high GB rate.
Pick – SF 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays