The Guardians got it done this afternoon.
Here are the breakdown for the earliest evening games.
PHIL @ CIN
Starting Pitchers
6:40
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
HC%
|
GB%
|
PHIL
|
Syndergaard - R
|
(11/17)
|
(6/17)
|
1.27
|
3.96
|
4.28
|
3.79
|
4.26
|
0.307
|
0.321
|
18.1%
|
6.2%
|
34.9%
|
44.3%
|
CIN
|
Minor - L
|
(2/12)
|
(10/12)
|
1.56
|
6.24
|
4.77
|
6.75
|
5.31
|
0.387
|
0.337
|
18.9%
|
9.8%
|
36.7%
|
31.8%
|
Bullpens
Team
|
W-L
|
SV/SVO
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
PHI
|
24-17
|
30/41
|
0.49
|
16
|
1.34
|
21
|
3.99
|
20
|
71.4%
|
17
|
24.6%
|
9
|
10.7%
|
28
|
CIN
|
21-15
|
24/40
|
0.61
|
30
|
1.44
|
29
|
5.07
|
30
|
69.6%
|
23
|
23.1%
|
15
|
10.9%
|
29
|
Edge – PHIL
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
HardHit%
|
Rank
|
Barrel%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
PHIL
|
4.61
|
7
|
0.321
|
10
|
104
|
11
|
24.7
|
10
|
0.175
|
6
|
7.9%
|
17
|
41.1%
|
6
|
8.8%
|
6
|
22.0%
|
13
|
CIN
|
4.23
|
20
|
0.302
|
24
|
87
|
27
|
-70.1
|
27
|
0.137
|
23
|
7.6%
|
21
|
36.0%
|
25
|
5.9%
|
29
|
24.1%
|
27
|
Edge – PHIL big
Conclusion: The Phils dropped two of three to the Mets in NY. They probably won’t catch the Mets in the NL East, trailing by 11.5 game, but current hold the final NL wild card spot by a game and a half over the Brewers. The Reds ook two of three from the Cubs, but have no realistic shot at the postseason. Offensively, this very much looks like a mismatch. The Phils hit much better than the Reds and it’s not close. As for the two bullpens, while I don’t really trust the Phils pen, the numbers tell that across the board, the Phils pen is better than the Reds pen as well. That leaves the two starting pitchersa.
Noah Syndergaard was picked up from the Angels at the trade deadline. For Syndergaard, getting traded from the Amgels must seem like being given a “get out of hell card” . He has now started 14 games for the Angels and 2 for the Phils with 11 grading as above average and just 6 grading as below. His WHIP and ERA are both decent , but not really good and his ERA metrics are mostly consistent with his ERA. his wOBA and xwOBA are both right around league average. Syndergaard’s K rate is down from where it used to regularly be, and that appears to be a deliberate choice that Syndergaard made to trade Ks for GBs and it’s worked OK so far with a solid GB rate and a fairly low hard contact rate. Still, Syndergaard is no longer the dominant flame thrower that we remember from his Met days. Those days appear gone. Now, he’s become much more of a finesse pitcher, which is OK but gives him a lot less margin for error.
Mike Minor has made 12 starts for the Reds and 10 graded as below average while just 2 graded as above. His WHIP and ERA are both through the roof and so are his ERA metrics. Minor’s wOBA is close to 80 points higher than league average and his xWOBA is close to 30 points higher . Minor’s K rate is mediocre and his walk rate is high for a guy who doesn’t miss a lot of bats. He has shown nothing and would not be in this rotation if the Reds had any other viable options.
Conclusion: The Phisl have the much better offense, the better bullpen and the much better starting pitcher. I’m fading Minor, a really bad pitcher and the Reds a bad team.
Pick – PHIL 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays
SD @ MIA
Starting Pitchers
6:40
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
HC%
|
GB%
|
SD
|
Musgrove - R
|
(14/20)
|
(5/20)
|
1.02
|
2.91
|
3.24
|
3.35
|
3.38
|
0.277
|
0.282
|
24.5%
|
5.5%
|
33.1%
|
45.6%
|
MIA
|
Alcantara
|
(18/23)
|
(5/23)
|
0.95
|
2.01
|
2.76
|
2.85
|
3.37
|
0.246
|
0.261
|
22.8%
|
6.4%
|
38.5%
|
55.6%
|
Edge – MIA
Bullpens
N/A – This is a 1st 5 only bet
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
HardHit%
|
Rank
|
Barrel%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
|
|
Team
|
|
Def
|
|
Rank
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
SD
|
4.48
|
12
|
0.307
|
15
|
99
|
15
|
-0.4
|
16
|
0.139
|
21
|
9.1%
|
7
|
36.5%
|
21
|
6.4%
|
23
|
21.6%
|
11
|
|
|
MIA
|
|
-14.4
|
|
23
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MIA
|
3.74
|
27
|
0.295
|
27
|
92
|
23
|
-39.2
|
24
|
0.135
|
25
|
7.3%
|
27
|
37.5%
|
15
|
6.9%
|
18
|
23.5%
|
23
|
|
|
BOS
|
|
-18.7
|
|
15
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Edge – SD big
Conclusion: The Pdres took two of three from the Nats in WASH over the weekend. While they won’t catch the Dodgers in the NL west, trailing by 17 games, the still hold the 2nd NL wild card spot. The Marlins dropped 4 staingt and were swept by the Braves, and are looking to next season. Offensively, this looks like a mismatch. The Padrr4s only look like a ;league average on paper, but after adding Soto and Bell at the trade deadline, should be much better. The Marlins big problem is they don’t score many runs. As for the two starting pitchers, they are both very good.
Joe Musgrove was having a great season. He has started 20 games with 14 grading as above average and just 5 grading as below. However, he has struggled over his last 5 starts, with 3 below average starts to 2 above average ones, giving up 19 runs on 32 hits and 9 walks over 28 innings over that span. His WHIP and ERA are both very good with ERA metrics that, while all close to a half a run higher than his ERA, are all still good. His wOBA and xwOBA are both lower than league average. A .253 BABIP that’s almost 25 points lower than his career average and an 77.4% strand rate that’s close to 5% higher that his career rate both tell me that we could see some more regression from Musgrove, who is striking out more than a batter per inning. Musgorve is missing plenty of bats and not walking a lot either.
Sandy Alcantara is having a great season and right now he’s the front-runner for the NL Cy Young award. He has started 23 games with 18 grading as above average and just 5 grading as below. His numbers are all as good as or better than Musgrove’s.
Conclusion: While the Padres are obviously the much better hitting team, the Marlins have the better starting pitcher, particularly with the way that Musgove has stuggled over the last month. Of course, the Marlins bats could cure than problem and there’s always a legitimate question as whether Alcantara will get any run support. I’ll take the better starting pitcher in the better current form for five innings and hope he gets a few runs. Ill also bet this is a very low scoring 1st 5.
Pick – SD 1st 5l ML and 1st 5 Under 3.
TB @ NYY
Starting Pitchers
7:05
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
HC%
|
GB%
|
TB
|
Beeks - L
|
(1/6)
|
(5/6)
|
1.20
|
2.35
|
3.44
|
3.38
|
3.38
|
0.299
|
0.290
|
29.3%
|
9.6%
|
36.0%
|
44.7%
|
NYY
|
Cole - R
|
(15/23)
|
(8/23)
|
1.02
|
3.38
|
3.08
|
3.26
|
2.67
|
0.277
|
0.275
|
32.5%
|
6.0%
|
37.8%
|
43.8%
|
Edge – NYY big
Bullpens
N/A – This is a 1st 5 only
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
HardHit%
|
Rank
|
Barrel%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
TBR
|
4.11
|
22
|
0.301
|
25
|
101
|
13
|
2.2
|
15
|
0.139
|
21
|
8.4%
|
12
|
39.0%
|
12
|
6.0%
|
27
|
23.8%
|
25
|
NYY
|
5.18
|
2
|
0.335
|
2
|
121
|
1
|
96.1
|
2
|
0.198
|
1
|
10.4%
|
1
|
42.7%
|
3
|
10.8%
|
2
|
22.0%
|
13
|
Edge – NYY big
Conclusion: The Rays just took two of three from the Orioles at Camden Yards. Wile they won’t catch the Yanks in the AL East, they currently hold the 3rd AL wild card spot, but with three tams with two games of them. The Yankd dropped two of three to the Red Sox at Fenway including a 3-0 shutout last night. Offensive, this should be a mismatch, The Yanks did not hit well in BOS, but they are still much better than the Rays. That leave the two starting pitchers, and that should also be a big edge for the Yanks.
Jalen Beeks will serve as the opener for Ryan Yarbrough tonight . Beeks has given up 1 run over 6 innings in 5 appearances since returning from the 15-IL on July 30. Yarbrough will follow Beeks for the second time this month after tossing four innings of 1-run ball v the Blue Jays on Aug. 2. Yarbrough last faced the Yankees on May 26, allowing three runs (two earned) on two hits and a walk while striking out five in a loss.
Gerrit Cole had delivered 15 above average starts is his last 20 outings. His WHIP is barely over 1.00 and his ERA is barely over 3.00 with ERA metrics that are all even lower than his already low ERA. Cole’s wOBA and xwOBA are both much lower than league average with an elite K rate, a fairly low walk rate and even a fairly good GB rate. Cole has dominated the Rays in three starts this season, giving up a total of just 2 runs on 8 hits and 7 walks over 19.1 innings with 29 Ks.
I don’t trust the yankee bullpen anymore. What I predicting about that unit is coming to pass as the Yanks announced that they well be going to a “closer by committee” instead of Clay Holmes. That will keep me off the full game. This bet is all about the starting pitchers and I’m putting my money on Cole for 5 innings .
Pick – NYY 1st 5 in a series of parlays.