Thank you Veterans!
I’m also looking at Yanks/Mariners. Have a great day, everyone.
1-3 yesterday, 118-102 season. PW went 0-2(66-52 season) while BP went 1-2(64-57 season).
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Caleb Wilfinger
Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros: NRFI (-115)
For our first NRFI selection on Monday, I’ll be backing a scoreless opening frame between the Twins and Astros. Sonny Gray will take the mound for Minnesota and the veteran right-hander has been excellent this season, posting an ERA of 1.82 while allowing more than 2 runs in just 1 of his 10 starts. Gray is pitching like an ace and I expect that to continue in the early going against an Astros team that just completed a stress-free sweep against the A’s.
Houston is countering with J.P. France on the bump, a pitcher that Minnesota’s lineup has yet to face. Outside of an outing where he surrendered 6 ER against the Cubs, France has had a strong debut season, allowing just 2 runs over 17.1 IP in 3 of his 4 other starts. I’m looking for another solid effort from France at home.
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Texas Rangers vs Detroit Tigers: NRFI (-120)
Unlike the other game in this column, this one doesn’t have a high-profile starting pitching matchup on paper. Therefore, I think we’re getting a bit of value on the NRFI at this price. Matthew Boyd gets the ball for the Tigers and while his numbers aren’t all that impressive (5.74 ERA, 1.42 WHIP), his xERA of 4.24 and hard-hit rate in the 86th percentile show that there is room for positive regression. Even against a very good Texas lineup, I expect a solid start from Boyd at home.
On the other side, Nathan Eovaldi has not allowed a first-inning run in each of his last 5 starts and his advanced metrics line up well with his traditional stats (2.60 ERA, 0.97 WHIP). Don’t expect that to change against this poor Tigers lineup on Monday.
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Paul Mammino 16-15
Minnesota Twins at Houston Astros
JP France takes the mound for the Astros today against the Twins. Despite a decent wRC+ over the last two weeks (106), the Twins have struggled mightily to score runs. They have the 24th most runs in the league across that span. France has been solid in his few outings to begin his MLB career, but HRs have been an issue for him. The rest of the skills are solid, which should allow him time to correct the HR issue, but a lot of the problem was also driven by one bad game. With the Twins’ struggles, he looks like a solid bet to keep a clean first frame.
On the other side of this game, Sonny Gray is taking the mound. Gray has been absolutely ridiculous in 2023 with a double-digit K/9, and he has yet to allow a homer. While he is unlikely to keep that ridiculous pace up, he looks like a low-three ERA arm which in this run environment is a CY Young contender. The Astros’ offense is elite, but he has allowed a 0.270 wOBA in his career the first time through the order, and his skills have been good enough that he should be able to keep a clean first.
Pick: -130
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Tampa Bay Rays at Chicago Cubs
Marcus Stroman has been excellent in 2023, with a sub-three ERA buoyed by his excellent GB%. As he always does, Stroman is keeping the ball in the yard and has been able to limit BABIP en route to fantastic numbers. He has allowed a .280 wOBA the first time through the order in his career. He is unfortunately tasked with facing one of the best offenses in all of baseball, but the right-hander has the talent and skillset to throw a clean first inning.
Taj Bradley gets the ball on the other side, and his reason has been a bit up and down. Bradley was solid in his first go around and struggled a bit in the two starts since returning from the minors, but there is one thing that he does extremely well, and that is limit free passes. He has a 1.48 BB/9 which is sparkling, and when we are looking at NRFI bets, we typically like to find the pitchers that make the other team earn it. This season the Cubs’ offense has been top-ten by wRC+ with a 107 number; however, a big part of that appears to be due to their patience and willingness to take a walk, as they are one of three teams with a double-digit BB%. Bradley should be able to limit one of their biggest strengths as a team.
Pick: -125