0-3 yesterday, 129-117 season. PW went 0-2(74-61 season) while BP went 0-2(71-67 season).
Fins, Stros and Rays have matchups that show promising NRFI. And here’s a surprising stat…..Mariners Gilbert is YRFI in 8 of 11 games.
Let’s have a better #!@&% day today! Good luck all.
www.pickswise.com/.../
Ricky Dimon
Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians: NRFI (-115)
Shane Bieber got roughed up in his most recent outing for the Guardians against Baltimore, but he is still sporting a clean 3.72 ERA for the season. Despite that overall struggle, the Cleveland right-hander pitched a scoreless first inning – which he did throughout the entire month of May. In fact, Bieber has made 7 consecutive starts without being victimized in the opening frame. For Boston, Rafael Devers is 3-for-13 lifetime against Biever, Justin Turner is 1-for-5 and Alex Verdugo is also 1-for-5.
The Red Sox are countering with James Paxton, who has pitched at least 5.0 innings without allowing more than a single run in 2 of his last 3 starts. He has made 3 consecutive appearances without surrendering a run in the first inning. The left-hander is coming off a 5-inning performance against Cincinnati in which he yielded just 1 run on 4 hits and 1 walk while striking out 8 batters, so he has plenty of confidence. Jose Ramirez of the Guardians is a dismal 2-for-14 in his career against Paxton.
.
.
Oakland Athletics vs Pittsburgh Pirates: NRFI (-115)
Mitch Keller has not necessarily been a first-inning machine (he has allowed a run in the opening frame twice in his last 6 outings), but I’m not too concerned given that he will be facing the Athletics on Tuesday. Unsurprisingly, they have scored the fewest runs in Major League Baseball. Meanwhile, Keller compiled a 3.00 ERA in May and for the year he is 7-1 with a 3.25 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and has 93 strikeouts compared to just 17 walks in 74.2 innings of work.
This is an interleague matchup, so there is less familiarity for hitters against these pitchers. Only 2 guys on the A’s have ever had a hit off Keller and only 2 Pirates have reached base against Oakland starter James Kaprielian (1 via a pair of walks). Kaprielian has pitched to the NRFI in 3 straight starts, so I’m willing to roll the dice with him even though he isn’t exactly an ace like Keller.
.
.
.
.
www.bettingpros.com/.../
Austin Macmillan 2023 NRFI (18-17, -2.29 Units)
Seattle Mariners at San Diego Padres
Joe Musgrove has been one of the unluckier pitchers in baseball this year, as his expected numbers and advanced statistics are much better than his 4.71 ERA would indicate. He has avoided hard contact, ranking in the top 20th percentile in both hard hit% and average exit velo, and he’s in the 88th percentile at generating swings on pitches outside of the strike zone. He ranks well above league average in xSLG and barrel%, and his xERA and xBA both register in the top 30th percentile. The Mariners have been extremely underwhelming offensively in 2023, a bottom 10 team in terms of HR and OBP, and a bottom 5 team in terms of BA, SLG, and OPS. They will also be in their worse offensive splits, as they hit RHP slightly worse than they hit LHP.
I’m going back to the well with Logan Gilbert, who had an out-of-character performance in his last start against the Yankees. Despite surrendering five ER in four innings, Gilbert’s numbers and metrics are still very good. His 0.98 WHIP is phenomenal, and his xERA of 3.03 puts him in the 84th percentile. His xBA and xSLG are both in the top third of the league, and he’s striking out nearly 30% of the batters he faces while walking fewer than 5%. The Padres have been nearly as bad offensively as the Mariners, as they also rank bottom 10 in BA, OBP, OPS, and SLG, and will be in their demonstrably worse hitting splits against the RHP Gilbert.
Pick: NRFI (-115)
.
.
Baltimore Orioles at Milwaukee Brewers
I like this matchup a lot for Brewers RHP Freddy Peralta, who will be taking on an Orioles lineup that surprisingly does not hit righties as well as it does lefties. Freddy has limited damage pretty well this year, with average exit velo and hard hit% that rank in the top third of the league and expected numbers that sit around league average. His fastball is very good, with a high spin rate and plenty of velo that leads to a swing and miss over 2/3 of the time. I also think that Peralta is due for some positive regression, as his xERA is lower than his actual ERA yet still remains higher than it’s been in his entire career. Baltimore has been a middling offensive team in 2023, and I think Peralta should have a clean opening frame against the O’s in their worse offensive splits.
Kyle Gibson has been a very solid pitcher for the Orioles this season, posting a 7-3 record with a 3.89 ERA. Though his Statcast metrics won’t make your jaw drop, he ranks in the top third of the MLB in barrel% and is right around league average in hard hit% and average exit velo. His recent performances suggest that he’s been trending in the right direction as well, as his xERA/xWOBA has been much better in the last 50 batters that he has faced. He’ll be facing off against a Brewers offense that has simply been one of the worst in the National League, ranking in the bottom 10 in BA, OBP, OPS, and SLG and ranking dead last in all of baseball in 2B. Additionally, American Family Field has been a bottom 10 stadium in terms of offensive park factors since 2021, ranking well below league average in 2B, 3B, and overall hits.
Pick: NRFI (+100)