Happy F1 Day! Even though it’s Monaco, it’s still better than “left turn, left turn, left turn…..”.
Have a good day, everyone!
A few days ago I screwed up the BP record, mistakenly putting their losses in the 40’s instead of the 50’s. Todays record is correct.
2-2 yesterday, 117-99 season. PW went 1-1(66-50 season) while BP went 1-1(63-55 season).
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Keith
San Diego Padres vs New York Yankees: NRFI (-120)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
The best pitching matchup of the day takes place in the Bronx between Yu Darvish and Gerrit Cole. The series has been low scoring thus far, with 11 runs scored between the teams, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this series finale be the lowest total of all 3. Darvish will toe the rubber for the visitors for his 10th start of the season, and the veteran has been fantastic through 54 innings. He holds a 3.67 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP, and most of the damage against Darvish comes in the 2nd and 3rd times through the order. But in the first time through the lineup, Darvish has limited hitters to a .155 batting average with a 26.7% strikeout rate. The right-hander has not faced New York many times in his career, and Harrison Bader has the most at-bats against him on the Yankees, but he’s 0-for-10 against Darvish. Even the Captain has struggled against Darvish, going 0-for-3 with 2 strikeouts.
Whenever Cole starts at home, it’s always good to see if there’s a way to back him. He holds a 2.09 ERA with a 1.023 WHIP in 7 starts at Yankee Stadium, and opponents are hitting just .185 with a .570 OPS against him. Cole will take on an always-dangerous Padres lineup that has power throughout their order, and he will have to be careful when facing Juan Soto since the lefty-hitter has had a lot of success against him. But if Cole can avoid letting Fernando Tatis Jr. on and keep Soto in the park, there’s a great chance for a scoreless start in New York.
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Boston Red Sox vs Arizona Diamondbacks: NRFI (-115)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Merrill Kelly is having an incredible 2023 campaign. After posting a 3.45 ERA in April, Kelly has been even better this month with a 2.88 ERA in May. He’s allowed more than 2 earned runs just once in his last 5 starts, but more importantly, he’s been exceptional at the beginning of games. In the first inning, Kelly has limited hitters to a .177 batting average with a .263 on-base percentage. He’s also not known to be a strikeout pitcher, but he’s recorded a 32.4% punch-out rate in the first inning. The Arizona starter will face a Boston offense that has hit a slump recently and has not scored in the first frame in 8 straight games.
The Boston rotation has slowly gotten better over the last few weeks. One of the big reasons for the improvement has been the performance of Tanner Houck, who has moved from the bullpen to the starting rotation this season. But his reliever tendencies have carried over to his starting role, and what I mean by that is opponents have a .116 batting average with a .355 OPS against Houck in their 1st at-bat, but it balloons to .356 with a .886 OPS during the 2nd time through the order. That can lead Houck into trouble in the fourth or fifth inning, but he’s usually been dominant in the first frame. The right-hander has given up just 2 runs in the first inning while holding hitters to a .133 batting average, so between him and Kelly, I think we reach the second inning without a run.
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Trenton Pruitt MLB YTD: 37-58 (+17.95 Units)
San Diego Padres vs. New York Yankees
The Yankees bounced back with a 3-2 extra innings victory on Saturday, evening up their series with the visiting Padres at one game apiece. We could be in for another low-scoring affair this afternoon as Yu Darvish squares off against Gerrit Cole. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET from Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, NY.
I’m rolling the NRFI in the second game on today’s baseball schedule. Starting with Cole, he’s still a perfect 5-0 to start the 2023 campaign. The right-hander enters this interleague matchup with a 2.53 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. We have a 133 head-to-head at-bat sample with the Padres, and they’re slashing .232/.267/.472. The only batter that sticks out is the always-dangerous Juan Soto, who is 4-for-6 (.667) with two home runs against Cole.
Darvish is putting together a respectable season as he’s 3-3 with a 3.67 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. Furthermore, he has excellent numbers against New York, who is slashing .154/.241/.269 against him. That includes an 0-for-3 (.000) from Aaron Judge. If Cole can work around Soto in the 1st inning, I think we’ll see the NRFI cash for the fourth time in five games for the Yankees.
Bet: No Runs First Inning (-135)
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Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers
Chicago’s underwhelming season continued on Saturday as they dropped their second game in three tries against the Detroit Tigers. However, the rotation rolls over for the Southsiders and Dylan Cease gets the nod as the Sox attempt to salvage a series split. The Tigers counter with Eduardo Rodriguez in this divisional showdown slated for 1:40 p.m. ET from Comerica Park in Detroit, MI.
Rodriguez has been sharp this season and comes into this one at 4-4 with a 2.19 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over 61.2 innings of work. In four starts this month, the left-hander owns a 2.16 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. As for the head-to-head statistics, the White Sox are slashing just .197/.250/.296 against Rodriguez over 71 at-bats. Lead-off man Tim Anderson is 0-for-14 (.000) against him while Luis Robert Jr. is just 1-for-4 (.250).
As for Cease, it hasn’t been an electric start for him this season after placing second in the Cy Young voting last year. The right-hander is just 3-3 with a 4.60 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. He has always had a great track record against the Tigers, especially against this specific lineup. The current roster is just 19-for-85 (.224) against him. With two aces on the bump in a getaway day affair, I think NRFI is the best play in this spot.
Bet: No Runs First Inning (-130)
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San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Yesterday’s pitching matchup between Logan Webb and Corbin Burnes lived up to the hype as the duo combined for 14.0 innings while each allowing just one earned run. We have another solid matchup between Alex Cobb and Colin Rea in the finale. San Francisco will go for the four-game sweep this afternoon in a game that’s set for 2:10 p.m. ET from American Family Field in Milwaukee, WI.
Rea is off to a pedestrian start this year, sitting at 1-3 with a 4.71 ERA and 1.27 WHIP over 36.1 innings of work. The right-hander will be looking to build off of his first winning effort last time out, where he blanked the Astros over 5.1 innings. He also has great head-to-head numbers against the Giants, who are slashing .167/.211/.333 against him with just one extra-base hit in 18 at-bats.
Even better in the head-to-head category is Cobb, who has limited the Crew to a slash line of .114/.235/.182 over 44 at-bats. Additionally, just one of the 44 at-bats has gone for extra bases. On top of those numbers, Cobb has been electric this season as he sits at 4-1 with a 2.17 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. NRFI is definitely the best bet here and it feels like a gift to get it at just -105.
Bet: No Runs First Inning (-105)