Been working all night, just got home. Have a great day!
2-2 yesterday, 127-112 season. PW went 2-0(72-58 season) while BP went 0-2(70-63 season).
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Kyle Lupas
Oakland Athletics vs Miami Marlins: NRFI (-120)
The Oakland Athletics are simply a bad baseball team, and their 12-1 loss last night puts them at 12-48 on the season. Luis Arraez of the Marlins remained the hottest hitter in baseball with a 5-for-5 night and is now hitting .390 through 59 games. Betting a NRFI today is partially a fade on the A’s and partially due to the pitching matchup. Oakland is dead last with 201 runs scored this season and has been scoreless in the 1st inning of the last 5 games. To make things worse, Miami will send Sandy Alcantara to the mound, who has allowed only 1 run in the 1st inning through 11 starts.
Alcantara hasn’t been great overall with a 4.93 ERA, but most of the damage has come in the later innings. Opposing lineups are batting .185 in their first plate appearance, but that jumps to .216 their second time up, and .297 once the lineup goes around the third time. So all-in-all, Alcantara has been sound in the early innings. Paul Blackburn takes the mound for Oakland and was productive in his first outing last week, surrendering 1 earned run on 4 hits, 2 walks and 6 strikeouts through 4.0 innings of work. The top of Miami’s lineup is solid, but Arraez is not a home-run threat, and as a team Miami prefers to face left-handed pitching. I’m backing a scoreless 1st inning in Miami.
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Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins: NRFI (-148)
The Cleveland Guardians and Minnesota Twins wrap up their series this afternoon and it has been low-scoring over the last 2 days. There have been a combined 7 runs scored in the last 2 games after these teams put up 13 on Thursday. Right-hander Triston McKenzie will make his season debut for Cleveland after suffering a shoulder strain at the end of March. McKenzie was sent to rehab with the Columbus Clippers on May 20 and pitched well in 2 of his 3 outings. He’s coming off a great 2022 season in which he owned a 2.96 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. His strikeout rate and chase rate are both above league-average, and the Twins could be without both Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa, who are currently listed as day-to-day.
The Twins counter with Joe Ryan, who owns the 9th-best ERA in the AL at 2.77 and has been extremely consistent this season. He’s coming off his worst start of the season in which he allowed 5 earned runs in Houston, but I’m expecting him to bounce back today. He has already faced this Guardians lineup and allowed just 2 earned runs across 6.0 innings. More importantly, he’s gone scoreless in the 1st inning in 9 of his 11 starts, so I’ll take those odds. His 29.1% strikeout rate to 5.0% walk rate are elite and his chase rate is in the 98th percentile. Look for a lower-scoring game in general and a scoreless 1st.
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Trenton Pruitt MLB YTD: 41-67 (+14.87 Units)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds
The Brewers come into today’s divisional matchup looking for their third consecutive victory over the Reds. They’ll turn to Adrian Houser as they attempt to keep some distance between themselves and Cincinnati in the N.L. Central standings. The Reds counter with Ben Lively in this matinee clash scheduled for 1:40 p.m. ET from Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, OH.
Lively has been a serviceable option for the Red Legs this season, posting a 1.99 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over five total appearances (three starts). The right-hander is coming off of an outing where he blanked the Red Sox over 5.2 innings, allowing just four hits and two walks. The only head-to-head data that we have is that Christian Yelich is 2-3 (.667) against him with a double. While that’s not inspiring, the Crew enter this game at 24th overall in team batting average (.210) over the last seven days. If Lively can work around Yelich at the top of the order, I’m confident he can clean a clean first frame.
As for Houser, he’s coming off his worst start of the season against the Blue Jays on Tuesday. The right-hander was shelled for seven runs (six earned) on 11 hits and three walks over 4.1 innings. But, in his two previous outings, Houser blanked the Rays and Astros over a combined 11.1 innings of work. He also has decent numbers against Cincinnati, holding them to a slash line of .236/.344/.418 over 55 at-bats.
Finally, it’s worth noting that the Reds are on a streak where NRFI has cashed in five of their last six games. All things considered, I think it’s worth a shot on NRFI with a slight plus-money payout.
Bet: No Runs First Inning (+105)
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Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins
The Guardians got back in the win column last night when they took down the Twins 4-2 in Minnesota. Cleveland will look to make it two in a row when they send Triston McKenzie to the bump to make his season debut. The Twins opt for Joe Ryan in this series finale slated for 2:20 p.m. ET from Target Field in Minneapolis, MN.
Ryan has truly developed into the ace of this Minnesota pitching staff. The right-hander enters this contest as 7-2 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over 11 starts (65.0 IP). He got roughed up by the Astros last time out, giving up five earned runs on four hits and three walks. But, I believe Ryan can bounce back against this Guardians squad that’s ranked 23rd in team batting average (.235) and 29th in OPS (.654). The current lineup is slashing a pedestrian .235/.261/.365 against him over 85 at-bats.
McKenzie is coming off of a fantastic season with the Guardians where he went 11-11 and posted a 2.96 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. He has been a thorn in the side of the Twins in his young career, limiting them to a .176/.233/.361 slash line over 108 at-bats. The right-hander is well on his way to developing into an upper-echelon starter and I think he’ll be ready to roll in his season debut today.
NRFI has cashed for Minnesota in six of its last seven games while Cleveland is 2-1 to the NRFI in its last three games. Let’s lay the -135 juice in this spot.
Bet: No Runs First Inning (-135)
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Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers
The first two games of this divisional series couldn’t have been more different as Friday’s series opener was a 2-0 victory for the Rangers. Then the bats heated up yesterday as they pummeled the M’s 16-6 in Arlington. Today’s pitching matchup features a battle between Bryce Miller and Nathan Eovaldi. The series finale is scheduled for 2:35 p.m. ET from Globe Life Field in Arlington, TX.
I’ll come out and say it, Eovaldi looks like he’s in Cy Young form right now. The right-hander owns a 0.77 ERA over his last six starts, spanning 46.2 innings pitched. Two of the starts were complete games and he held teams scoreless in four of them. He currently sits with the eighth-shortest odds at +1800 to win the AL Cy Young. With all of that being said, I think Eovaldi can blank the Mariners in the first inning. They’re just 27th in team batting average (.228) and 25th in OPS (.684) this year.
Miller’s coming off the worst start of his young career against the Yankees. New York tagged him for eight earned runs on 11 hits over 4.2 innings. Even with the clunker, the 24-year-old still has great numbers overall as he’s 3-2 with a 3.00 ERA and 0.75 WHIP. Miller started out his big league career with five straight quality starts, including three shutout performances of at least 6.0 innings. He won’t have an easy task today against a potent Rangers offense, but I think it’s worth a shot to say he keeps a clean first inning in front of his home state crowd. Miller’s from Mount Pleasant, which is two hours east of Arlington. Let’s lock in NRFI in this divisional showdown.
Bet: No Runs First Inning (-130)