Way to go, TB!
Was surprised to see Ober get lit up for 4 in the first. Oh well, that’s the beauty of baseball. Have a great day, people!
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Caleb Wilfinger
Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees: NRFI (-110)
At this point in the season, Gerrit Cole is pitching at a Cy Young — and potentially an MVP level. Cole is leading a Yankees rotation that has undergone a lot of changes and hiccups due to injury issues and inconsistency. And to his credit, Cole has been excellent from his first start, posting an ERA of 2.01 and 8 of his 10 outings have been graded as quality starts. Even with his expected numbers expecting some regression, Cole should get out to a quick start against an Orioles team he has typically dominated over the years. On the other side, Kyle Bradish has been up-and-down but is coming off his 2 best starts of the season — allowing 1 ER over his last 13 IP — so there’s reason for optimism in this one. I’ll back the NRFI at this price.
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs Atlanta Braves: NRFI (-110)
Tuesday marks the debut for Dodgers prospect Bobby Miller, who is said to have the best stuff among the minor league pitchers for Los Angeles. With a fastball that can reach 100mph along with a devastating slider, sinker, changeup and curveball, the 1st round draft pick in 2020 has a high ceiling that can translate to success at the MLB level. He should get off to a solid start in his opening frame against a Braves lineup that won’t have much tape on Miller. On the other side, Spencer Strider is one of the best pitchers in baseball who continues to pitch at an extremely high level. With an xERA of 2.70 and sitting in the top 10 percentile of all qualified pitchers in xwOBA, xBA and strikeout rate, Strider is dealing and should get away quickly against the Dodgers in this one.
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Austin Macmillan 17-10
Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres NRFI (-115 @ Caesars & Bet365)
I’ve covered this in some of my prior analyses, but the Padres’ offense has surprisingly been pretty poor in 2023, ranking 20th or worse in the MLB in OPS, SLG, and OBP and coming in at dead last in BA. That kind of performance does not bode well in this matchup against MacKenzie Gore, one of the best young arms in baseball with underlying metrics that grade out extremely well. Gore has great stuff, ranking in the top 1/3 of the league in chase rate, whiff% and K%, which has resulted in him ranking in the 60th percentile or better in barrel%, xBA and xSLG. He also has reverse splits, pitching better against right-handed batters than left-handed batters, which will help him to neutralize a Padres lineup that hits slightly better against lefties.
Meanwhile, Yu Darvish has continued to be one of the most consistent arms at the top of the rotation in all of baseball, pitching to the tune of a 3.56 ERA that’s actually higher than his xERA of 3.14. His Statcast metrics are phenomenal, ranking in the top 30th percentile in K%, whiff%, barrel%, xBA, xSLG and xWOBA. He’ll be getting the Nationals, who already struggle to hit the ball hard and generate xBH, in their demonstratively worse hitting splits against RHP. I expect him to make quick work of the top of Washington’s lineup in the opening frame. Additionally, Nationals Park ranks slightly below league average in nearly all offensive categories, conferring no stark advantages to either offense.
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Minnesota Twins vs. San Francisco Giants – No Run 1st Inning (-115 @ Bet365)
The Twins are another example of a team that I’ve picked on in this market because their offensive performance simply has not lived up to their expectations. They’re a bottom-10 team in BA and OBP, and they strike out at the highest rate in the MLB. They only have one batter with a BA north of 0.300, and their supposed star players in Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa are hitting 0.231 and 0.213, respectively, in a year where we’ve seen offensive performances improve across the league. They’ll be up against Alex Cobb today, who has a stellar 1.94 ERA and should be able to have success against those power bats in the Twins lineup, as his numbers are much better against right-handed hitters.
Minnesota has boasted some tremendous starting pitching depth, and today will be Sonny Gray’s turn. Gray has been fantastic so far, tossing a ridiculous 1.64 ERA (3.16 xERA is the best in his career and good for the 78th percentile) with a 1.16 WHIP. He’s been missing bats, generating whiffs and strikeouts at the top 25% rate in the MLB. The balls that do get hit have been turned into outs, as his xWOBA, xSLG and xBA all rank 78th percentile or better. The Giants are a middling offensive team, and Target Field has graded out below average in most offensive park factors, including HR, over the past 3 seasons, so I like Gray to have success in the first inning and hold up his end of the bargain in this NFRI play.