A nice 3-0 from the cappers yesterday, 4-0 if you also played the Yanks/Mariners. That pitching matchup looked too good to me to pass up. What the hell, let’s do it again today, huh?
3-0 yesterday, 121-102 season. PW went 2-0(68-52 season) while BP went 2-0(66-57 season).
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Ricky Dimon
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies: NRFI (-120)
Zac Gallen is taking the mound for Arizona and that is immediate good news for NRFI bettors. Gallen is 6-2 with a 2.97 ERA to go along with 75 strikeouts and only 14 walks in 66.2 innings of work. The right-hander has allowed a first-inning run just twice in 11 starts this season and in 4 of his last 9 he has not given up a single run in any inning. Nobody on the Rockies has ever done any notable damage against Gallen, so you have to feel good about his chances of putting the clamps down on them yet again.
Colorado is countering with Kyle Freeland, who is sporting a 3.24 ERA in the month of May with 21 strikeouts and 6 walks over the course of 25.0 innings. The left-hander faced Arizona earlier this season and delivered a quality start while keeping each of the first 2 frames scoreless. He has not surrendered a first-inning run in 6 of his last 7 outings.
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Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles: NRFI (-122)
Tuesday night’s showdown between the Guardians and Orioles is getting underway with Baltimore’s Kyle Gibson toeing the rubber. Gibson has delivered for NRFI bettors in 7 of his last 8 starts, and there are plenty of reasons to think he will do the same again today. In his last 2 outings combined (against dangerous lineups in the Yankees and Blue Jays, too), the 35-year-old righty has given up 1 run in 14.0 innings of work. Jose Ramirez is the only Guardian who has had success against Gibson in the past, but Ramirez has gone deep only once in 33 at-bats.
In the bottom of the first Baltimore will be facing Cal Quantrill. The right-hander has made 4 of 5 appearances in May without seeing a runner cross the plate in the opening frame. Only twice in his last 9 starts has he allowed more than 3 runs total. No one on the Orioles has recorded more than 2 hits lifetime off Quantrill.
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Austin Macmillan 2023 NRFI (17-14, -0.17 Units)
Miami Marlins vs. San Diego Padres – NRFI (-113 FanDuel)
While it’s true that Sandy Alcantara has not lived up to the expectations after winning the Cy Young in 2022, I’ve had some success backing him in the NRFI market, and his underlying metrics suggest that he’s due for some positive regression. His xERA is a full 0.60 runs lower than his actual ERA, and his fastball is still one of the hardest that you’ll see from a starting pitcher, ranking in the 96th percentile.
I’ve pointed this out in a previous article, but the Padres have been one of the biggest disappointments offensively in 2023. They rank in the bottom 10 in baseball in OPS, SLG, OBP and BA, and they rank dead last in the MLB in BA with runners in scoring position. They’ll also be facing Sandy in their demonstrably worse hitting splits, as they are a much better-hitting team against LHP.
Ryan Weathers, a former #7 overall pick, will be getting the ball for the Padres to start. He’s been pretty solid this season, and he’s another example of a pitcher whose analytics suggest that he’s actually been better than his numbers indicate. His xERA sits in the top 1/3 of the league at 3.49 (nearly a full 0.50 runs better than his actual ERA), and he excels at pitching to soft contact. He ranks in the top 30th percentile in average exit velo and xSLG, and he ranks in the top 10th percentile in barrel% and hard hit%.
The Marlins are not an offense that boasts a ton of power, ranking in the bottom half of the league in OBP and OPS, and ranking bottom 10 in HR and 2B. LoanDepot Park has traditionally favored pitchers as well, ranking 23rd in overall park factor and HR rate since 2021.
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Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees – NRFI (-115 Bet365)
Logan Gilbert has quietly been one of the more underrated pitchers in the American League in 2023, pitching in the shadow of their ace Luis Castillo. His sub-3.00 xERA of 2.87 is terrific, grading out in the 86th percentile, and his WHIP of 0.92 is phenomenal. Statcast ranks Gilbert as the #1 pitcher in all of baseball in terms of extension off the mound, which has resulted in xSLG, xBA, chase rate, and K% all comfortably ranking in the top one-third of the league.
He’s always had great control of the strike zone, but this year he’s walking a career-low 4.3% of the batters he faces. He’ll, of course, have to deal with the problem that is Aaron Judge, but the Yankees as a team have been relatively inconsistent offensively, ranking in the bottom 10 in terms of BA and OBP, and are currently dealing with injuries to two power bats in Anthony Rizzo and Harrison Bader.
Nestor Cortes of the Yankees has been a confusing pitcher in 2023. His xERA is nearly two full runs lower than his actual ERA, which is nearly unheard of. He has been really good the first two times through the batting order, but then his numbers skyrocket the third time he’s faced batters this season, which I believe is inflating some of his numbers and is a large reason why his expected numbers are much better than his actual ones. He’s still ranking above league average in xERA, xBA, xSLG, barrel%, BB% and K%, and he’ll get the Mariners with their inferior offensive splits against LHP.
I trust Nestor’s track record in previous years and the fact that he’s still been pretty dominant in the early going against opponents this season. T-Mobile Park has graded out dead last in terms of offensive ballpark factors since 2021, ranking #1 in strikeouts for batters and bottom 10 in HR hit, so we’ll get the added benefit of a pitcher-friendly atmosphere in this one as well.