Good luck today, everyone!
1-3 yesterday, 42-46 season. PW went 0-2(21-26 season) while BP went 1-2(27-25 season).
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Keith
Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees: YRFI (-122)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
After more than three weeks of baseball, the Yankees have the 2nd highest rate of YRFIs in the league. Of their 23 games, 45% of them have seen a run in the first inning. Only the Tampa Bay Rays have had more games with a run in the first inning which isn’t too surprising considering their offensive outburst at the start of the season. For the series finale between the Blue Jays and Yankees, Kevin Gausman will toe the rubber for the visitors and Clarke Schmidt will look for redemption in his 5th start. The main reason I’m looking to the YRFI for this bet is because of how bad Schmidt has been in the opening frame this year.
In his 4 outings, the YRFI has cashed in 3 of the games. Schmidt’s struggles are the primary reason for the YRFI’s success because the right-hander has a 9.00 ERA and is allowing a .389 batting average in the first frame. He will face his biggest challenge yet against a powerful Blue Jays order that features George Springer, Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Matt Chapman at the top of the lineup. As for the bottom half of the inning, the Yankees have more than enough power to win this bet with one swing. I’m looking at Aaron Judge when I saw that since the captain is hitting .375 with 3 home runs in his career against Gausman. With the number of talented bats coming to the plate in the first inning, I think at least one run can be recorded.
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Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles: NRFI (-128)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
This matchup is the perfect combination for the NRFI because Eduardo Rodriguez has yet to allow a first inning run and the Tigers average the fewest first inning runs per game. Both games in this series have begun without a run in the opening frame, and I think the NRFI will go a perfect 3-0 in this 3-game set. After a difficult 2022 season with the Tigers that was cut short due to off-the-field problems, Rodriguez finally looks like he’s back to form. He has a 3.00 ERA paired with a 3.09 xERA and is coming off his best start of the season against the Guardians as he went 8 scoreless innings while allowing just 4 hits. But more importantly, Rodriguez has a perfect 0.00 ERA in the opening frame this season.
Detroit’s offense doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence to score runs. In this series so far, the Tigers have 2 runs on just 7 hits in 18 innings. Their lineup lacks any real threat, which allows pitchers to attack the top of the order without worrying about a dangerous heart of the order coming up next. After Saturday’s game, Detroit is averaging 0.17 first inning runs per game, but that number drops to 0.10 when they are on the road. They will be facing the young flamethrower Grayson Rodriguez, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the rookie record at least 2 strikeouts in the opening frame since he has a punch-out rate near 30%. All it takes is 6 outs, and I think both starters can combine for a scoreless first frame.
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Trenton Pruitt
Houston Astros vs. Atlanta Braves
The Astros will go for the sweep Sunday when they take on the Braves in a 2021 World Series rematch. Houston will turn to Cristian Javier while Atlanta counters with Max Fried in this interleague clash scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET from Truist Park in Atlanta, GA.
Javier comes into the series finales at 2-0 with a 3.68 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over four starts this year. Most recently, the right-hander threw 5.0 innings against the Blue Jays and limited them to just one earned run on three hits and two walks. He struck out five batters in the winning effort. As for the head-to-head matchups with the Braves, they’re slashing just .208/.240/.521 against him over 48 at-bats. That includes the trio of Ronald Acuna Jr., Austin Riley, and Matt Olson sitting at a combined 2-26 (.077).
Fried, on the other hand, has also found success against the Astros, where they’re hitting just .182 over 22 at-bats with no extra-base hits. The southpaw has been excellent in two starts this year, sitting at 1-0 with a 1.08 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. Look for this game to be scoreless after the first frame.
Bet: No Runs First Inning (-125)
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs
The Cubs will attempt to salvage a series split this afternoon when they send Marcus Stroman to the bump. Meanwhile, the Dodgers go for their second straight win when they opt for Clayton Kershaw. This National League showdown is slated for 2:20 p.m. ET from Wrigley Field in Chicago, IL.
Kershaw has been sharp this season, posting three quality starts over four outings. Most recently, the southpaw dominated the Mets, tossing 7.0 scoreless innings and giving up just three hits. He earned his third win of the year and currently owns a 2.52 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. Furthermore, Kershaw has decent numbers against Chicago as they’re slashing .290/.304/.430 against him over 100 at-bats.
Chicago’s Stroman has been electric this season, recording four consecutive quality starts to begin the year. Those outings have earned him a 2-1 record to go along with a 0.75 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. The right-hander has excelled against the Dodgers, holding them to a .207/.281/.264 slash line over 87 at-bats. Considering these starters are both in great form, I’m riding with NRFI on the north side.
Bet: No Runs First Inning (-145)
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San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
In a similar position as the Cubs, the Diamondbacks will go for the series split this afternoon. Rookie Drey Jameson gets the nod and he’ll be opposed by the Padres’ Yu Darvish. First pitch is set for 4:10 p.m. ET from Chase Field in Phoenix, AZ.
Darvish is winless this year at 0-2, but he brings in a 3.44 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over three starts. The veteran right-hander took a loss to the Brewers last time out; however, it was hardly his fault. He lasted 7.0 innings and allowed just one earned run on four hits and two walks. Darvish amassed a season-high 12 punchouts in the 1-0 defeat.
Young right-hander Drey Jameson will take the ball for the Snakes, making his sixth appearance (third start) of the year. He enters this one at 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. He’s been a serviceable option against the Friars in his career, holding them to a .125/.160/.292 slash line over 24 at-bats. Look for Jameson to hold this slow-starting San Diego offense scoreless in the 1st.
Bet: No Runs First Inning (-110)