1-2 yesterday, 32-39 season. PW went 1-1(17-22 season) while BP went 1-1(21-21 season).
PW is going both YRFI today and even BP has a couple, which for them YRFI is a rarity. Last year I hated those as they were mostly losers but this year, maybe due to the new rules, sure seems there’s more scoring in the opening inning. Still a young season and time will tell if our days of accurate NRFI bets are over. That would suck.
Good luck today!
www.pickswise.com/.../
Caleb Wilfinger
Los Angeles Angels vs New York Yankees: YRFI (-130)
Our first pick for Wednesday’s slate will be at Yankee Stadium, where New York will host the reeling Angels. All signs point to this being a high-scoring affair, especially with Johny Brito and Griffin Canning on the mound. Brito had been pitching over his head, but his last outing against the Twins was a rude awakening, as he surrendered 7 runs and failed to make it out of the first inning. He enters this game with an xERA of 7.71, to go along with xSLG, barrel rate and xBA metrics that are all within the bottom 15% of all qualified pitchers this season. He’ll be facing a desperate Angels team that is looking to get back on track after dropping 3 of their last 4. Expect a quick start from Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani and company.
On the other side, Canning should have a difficult time with the top of the Yankees lineup given his underlying metrics. The right-hander looked decent in his first start against the Nationals, but an xERA of 4.19 doesn’t bode well for a significant step up in class on Wednesday. Having to face Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo and Gleyber Torres in your first start at Yankee Stadium is a far cry from a below average Nationals lineup. Consider that Canning’s xBA, xSLG and barrel rate are all below average, don’t be surprised if the Yankees grab an early run or two.
.
.
Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres: YRFI (-130)
These teams have already met this season, and we saw plenty of offense in that series. Now we have a total of 9 runs for this matchup, which implies that we’ll see more scoring from both sides against these mediocre starting pitchers. Charlie Morton gets the ball for Atlanta, and the veteran right-hander has not impressed this season. Morton’s xERA sits at 6.23 compared to an actual ERA of 3.86, so he’s certainly due for some regression in that regard. Furthermore, the top of the Padres lineup has great lifetime success off Morton, including terrific numbers from Xander Bogaerts and Juan Soto. San Diego should get off to a quick start at home in this one.
The outlook doesn’t look much better for Nick Martinez, who currently sits in the bottom 20th percentile in xERA, xBA, xSLG, and strikeout percentage this season. The Braves don’t have much experience against Martinez, but this is still a lineup that mashes against non-elite pitchers — which is exactly what we have in this matchup. Even if the Padres are unable to score, I still like Atlanta to scratch across a run in the opening frame.
.
.
.
.
www.bettingpros.com/.../
Kurt Blakeway
Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals – Madison Bumgarner vs. Jake Woodford
Among the probable starters on today’s slate Madison Bumgarner has the worst xFIP and SIERA and has allowed nearly two HR/9 in 2023.
Last season the Cardinals were the best-hitting team when facing left-handed pitchers. In 2022 they led the league in wRC+ (131), wOBA (.350), and ISO (.202). While they are off to a slower start in 2023, they still rank in the top 5 in all three categories.
On the other side, Cardinals starter Jake Woodford is no Cy Young candidate. He is 0-2 with an ERA over five.
One of these teams will jump out early and cash the YRFI for us.
Bet: Yes Runs First Inning (-150)
.
.
San Francisco Giants at Miami Marlins – Alex Cobb vs. Trevor Rogers
There may not be a worse team when it comes to hitting left-handed pitchers than the Giants. As a team, the San Francisco Giants rank 29th in wRC+. 29th in wOBA, 18th in BABIP, and last in ISO against LHP.
Alex Cobb is nothing special, but he can handle his business against below-average teams/lineups. Over his first three starts, he is 0-1 with a 3.14 ERA. The Dodgers and Yankees roughed him up, but against the Royals, he pitched seven innings giving up two runs on seven hits.
Bet: No Runs First Inning (-140)
.
.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago White Sox – Taijuan Walker vs. Mike Clevinger
As mentioned in my HR Prop article, Mike Clevinger is due for some regression as he has been extremely lucky over his first three starts.
Despite having a lower ERA of 2.20, Clevinger has been able to leave men on base 83% of the time, but not only that, his xERA and xFIP are above five and creeping up to six. With an xFIP of 5.82, that’s more of an accurate representation of where Clevinger’s ERA should be.
Today’s matchup with the Phillies will be his first real test of the season. Philadelphia ranks first in BABIP, 11th in ISO, 4th in SLG%, and 8th in wRC+. Bet on scoring early scoring in this one.
Bet: Yes Runs First Inning (-110)