Guardians/Yanks looks good as well today. BOL today!
2-2 yesterday, 60-58 season. PW went 1-1(30-34 season) while BP went 1-1(38-29 season).
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Ricky Dimon
Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins: NRFI (-113)
For Miami’s Sandy Alcantara and Atlanta’s Bryce Elder, this will be their second consecutive start against each other. They squared off last Wednesday and pitched to a NRFI. Alcantara will have an even better chance of shutting down the Braves in the opening frame this time around because leadoff hitter Ronald Acuna Jr. will likely be sidelined by the shoulder contusion he suffered during Monday’s doubleheader against the New York Mets. Acuna is the hottest player in Atlanta’s lineup and the only one near the top of the order who has enjoyed any notable success against Alcantara in the past.
Elder ended up getting knocked around a little bit by the Marlins in what ended with a 6-4 Braves victory, but most importantly he held Miami in check in the first inning. Overall this season the right-hander has been outstanding. He is 2-0 with a 2.17 ERA through 5 starts, establishing himself as the fifth pitcher in Atlanta’s rotation at least for the time being. The Marlins’ lineup is nothing special, so all things considered the NRFI looks like a strong play.
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Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox: NRFI (+100)
Joe Ryan is taking the mound on Tuesday, which is great news for the Twins and perhaps even better news for NRFI bettors. Ryan is 5-0 with 2.81 ERA and 36 strikeouts compared to only 4 walks through 5 starts spanning 32.0 innings. Just once has he allowed a run in the first inning, and that was to the high-powered New York Yankees. The White Sox are nowhere near as dangerous. Eloy Jimenez has homered once off Ryan in his career, but other than that nobody in the Chicago order has picked up any success in this matchup.
The Sox are countering with Michael Kopech, who hasn’t been stellar so far in 2023 but on the bright side has surrendered a run in the opening frame on just 1 occasion. He should be able to hold the Twins scoreless through at least 3 outs, as well. The top 4 batters in Minnesota’s lineup are a combined 5-for-29 lifetime against Kopech. At plus-money (albeit right on the number), the NRFI has awesome value.
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Austin Macmillan
Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox – 7:10 p.m. EST
The Twins have been a team that I’ve consistently been targeting in this market because their actual offensive performance just hasn’t been as good as it’s perceived. They’re a bottom-half team in the league in terms of OPS and SLG and a bottom-10 team in BA and OBP. Though starter Michael Kopech has admittedly not been very good this year, he’s been negatively affected by the new pace of play regulations. He is due for some positive regression to his metrics in his previous two years, where he posted career bests in xERA (2.83), K% (36.1%), xBA (0.185) and xWOBA (0.261). He’ll also catch righty power bats Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton (both hitting well below 0.200) in their worse offensive splits, which will help him get through the opening frame without surrendering a run.
On the flip side, the White Sox offense has been absolutely atrocious. The Sox rank 21st or worse in runs per game, OPS, BA, OBP and SLG. I don’t foresee those numbers improving after this game either, as Minnesota will pitch a potential dark horse Cy Young candidate in Joe Ryan. Ryan has been dynamite for the Twins this season, pitching to the tune of a 5-0 record with a 2.81 ERA and 0.81 WHIP. His analytic metrics are phenomenal, ranking in the top 30th percentile in xERA, xSLG, xBA, barrel %, K%, BB% and chase rate. He’ll also catch the Sox, who have a reputation of mashing lefties, in their worse offensive splits.
I like Ryan to continue his stellar start to the season against a struggling White Sox offense. I also trust Kopech’s track record and pedigree to navigate through the top of the Twins’ batting order to cash this bet for plus money.
Pick: NRFI (+102 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
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