Just a brutal day all across the board for me yesterday, including the 0-4 record here. Oh well, today is a new day.
Note - DK and MGM have the Over and Under odds for the Braves game roughly the same, about -110 or -115 for both. FD on the other hand has the Over at -128 and the Under at +100.
0-3 yesterday, 24-29 season. PW went 0-2(13-16 season) while BP went 0-2(13-18 season).
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Keith
Atlanta Braves vs Kansas City Royals: NRFI (-113)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
There’s only one team that has scored in fewer first innings than the Royals. Kansas City has not scored a first-inning run in 84.62% of games this season, and that’s not hard to believe when looking at their offensive numbers. They rank 29th in batting average, on-base percentage and OPS this season, and their young lineup has not had much success in the first time through the order. Bobby Witt Jr. is hitting .229, MJ Melendez is hitting .190 and Salvador Perez is hitting .213 — not a stellar top three in the order. The Royals will face Charlie Morton on Friday night, and only Perez has seen Morton in his career. However, his experience might not be too beneficial since he’s 0-for-5 with a strikeout against Morton in his career.
Brady Singer had a solid season debut against Blue Jays as he allowed only 1 run and 2 hits in 5 innings. Limiting a powerful Blue Jays lineup is not an easy task, so it was impressive to see Singer look so sharp early on. However, he did have a poor second start in San Francisco that was the result of poor secondary pitches and long at-bats. Fortunately for us, all we need is one good first inning from Singer, and that’s what he’s done both times. He did not allow a run in the first inning in either outing, which was similar to last season when he had a 1.12 ERA in the first frame. These two pitchers should be able to each record three outs and move to the second inning without allowing a run.
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New York Mets vs Oakland Athletics: NRFI (-130)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Expecting a scoreless first inning in this series opener is more about fading the offenses than backing the pitchers. The Mets and Athletics rank 26th and 28th in batting average and 25th and 27th in OPS, so neither offense has been lighting up the scoreboard. That’s been especially true in the first inning since Oakland has failed to score in the opening frame in 66.7% of their games, which includes 5 of their 6 home games. It’s hard to see that trend changing against Kodai Senga, who has allowed just 2 runs and 6 hits while striking out 14 batters in 11.1 innings. Senga’s fastball-forkball combination has been deadly, and opponents have a .119 average against those two pitches.
Although the Mets have a star-studded lineup, it hasn’t translated to runs. They have not scored in the first inning in 76.92% of their games, which includes their last four games. The top half of their order was incredibly productive last season with Brandon Nimmo and Francisco Lindor getting on base for Pete Alonso, but that’s changed this year. Nimmo is hitting just .243, Starling Marte is hitting .268 and Lindor is hitting .227, and since they’re not getting on base a lot, the Mets have had a lot of slow starts in their games. In a pitcher-friendly stadium with two struggling offenses, I’m backing a scoreless start.
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Austin MacMillan
Athletics vs. Mets Under 0.5 Runs (-128 @ FanDuel)
The A’s have scored seven or more runs in their previous three games against a very weak Orioles pitching staff, yet they still rank tied for 25th in baseball in runs scored per game. They rank below league average in doubles and home runs hit, and if it weren’t for a two-homer day from Brent Rooker yesterday, they would not have a player with over two HR hit on the year. Their offense will be going up against Kodai Senga, who has been absolutely phenomenal in his first two starts in the MLB, going 2-0 with a stellar 1.59 ERA. Senga has been terrific at missing barrels, with his barrel %, whiff %, and K % all ranking in the top-25th percentile in the league.
For all the firepower that fills the Mets lineup, they have left a lot to be desired so far, actually tied for 25th in runs scored with the A’s. Despite Pete Alonso’s six home runs, the Mets are tied for 22nd in the league in home runs hit, with no other player having more than two. James Kaprielian should be able to neutralize Alonso’s power, as the slugger is only batting 0.115 against righties with a 0.346 SLG (.409 and 1.000 against lefties, respectively). Kaprielian hasn’t necessarily yet lived up to the hype that his No. 16 overall draft pick might indicate, but he did rank above league average in hard hit % and exit velo allowed last season. Oakland has one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in the MLB, allowing below league average in runs and HR historically. I think these offenses continue to struggle early, and we will have a scoreless opening frame.
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Marlins vs Diamondbacks Under 0.5 Runs (-111 @ FanDuel)
The Marlins bring the league’s second-least productive offense into this matchup, averaging a shade over just three runs per game. Their OPS ranks 22nd in MLB at .705, and they are striking out at the third-highest rate of any team. Though Madison Bumgarner hasn’t been the same pitcher that dominated the latter half of the 2010s, he still has a ton of experience, and his hard hit % and exit velo allowed have been his best advanced metrics so far this 2023 season. The D-Backs are also second in the MLB in defensive runs saved so far, so Bumgarner will have plenty of help behind him.
While the Diamondbacks have been a middling team in terms of runs scored, their lineup does not feature a ton of pop. They rank 26th in the bigs in home runs hit, and their batters are only reaching base safely at the 22nd-best rate. They will be up against the lefty Trevor Rogers of the Marlins, whose analytics suggest that he is a much better pitcher than his 0-2, 6.00 ERA would indicate. He ranks above the 60th percentile xBA, whiff %, and hard hit %, and he ranks in the top 12th percentile in both average exit velo and chase rate. LoanDepot Park also skews toward a more pitcher-friendly environment, with runs and home runs coming in below a neutral league average. I like both of these southpaws to have success early against lineups that don’t provide a ton of firepower on either side.