The old people live! The old ladies were throwing their bras and granny panties at me after getting them “hot” again, happens all the time. They smell weird. Onto today! Good luck!
2-2 yesterday, 20-20 season. PW went 1-1(10-11 season) while BP went 1-2(11-12 season).
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Caleb Wilfinger
Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants: NRFI (-130)
It hasn’t been the greatest start to the season for Logan Webb, but I think the Giants ace is due for some positive regression at home. Webb started off the season with a terrific effort over the Yankees, where he struck out 12 batters in a loss. The hitter-friendly conditions of Yankee Stadium worked against him, which is why his xERA was 2.83 after the game compared to his actual ERA of 6.00. Webb had a harder time against the White Sox in his last outing, where he surrendered 4 runs in 5 innings pitched. However, his xERA still sits at 2.93 compared to an actual ERA of 6.55. On a temperate night in San Francisco, I’m bullish on Webb to bounce back in the early going against this inconsistent Dodgers lineup.
On the other side, Julio Urias has picked up right where he left off a season ago, having allowed just 2 runs over his first 12 innings pitched while striking out 12 in the process. He shouldn’t have much trouble getting off to a quick start against a Giants offense that has been quite poor this season, outside of 2 outlier double-digit performances. I’m expecting both teams to score against the opposing bullpens, but we could be in for a pitchers’ duel before that point.
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Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies: NRFI (-130)
One of the compelling Monday matchups features one of the premier pitchers in all of baseball. Sandy Alcantara takes the mound for the Marlins as he looks to build on his outstanding last start against the Phillies. The Miami ace got off to a slow start on Opening Day, before immediately turning it around with a 3-hit shutout against a quality Minnesota Twins team. Having allowed just 6 hits in 14.2 innings pitched this season and ranking in the top 9% of all pitchers in WOBA, you have to lean toward the NRFI when Alcantara is on the mound. There’s no reason to expect anything different on Monday, as Alcantara has historically been able to stymie this Phillies offense. Look for the right-hander to keep rolling in this one.
While Alcantara should get off to a hot start, the Marlins offense shouldn’t give Matt Strahm much trouble. Strahm isn’t a household name, but he has quietly pitched quite well in his pair of appearances in 2023. Most recently, Strahm took the mound at Yankee Stadium and held the Bronx Bombers to just 1 hit and no runs across 4 innings of work. He’ll face a Marlins offense that is nothing to write home about, as the Fish continue to have issues at the plate — much like a season ago. I expect Strahm to retire the side without much trouble, so I like backing the NRFI in Philadelphia.
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Paul Mammino
New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians – 6:10 PM ET
In one of the Ace vs. Five Starter matchups of the day, we have the Guardians and Yankees. Cleveland is sending Shane Beiber to the mound, and he has gotten off to a great start thus far in 2023. However, his K/9 is down to begin the season, and it makes his profile a bit riskier. He has always allowed loud contact but limited walks well enough and struck out enough hitters to get away with the loud contact. He has allowed a 0.270 wOBA in his career the first time through the order, and while the Yankee’s order is excellent, he has enough skills to keep them off the board in the first inning.
On the other side of the coin, the Yankees are sending Domingo German to the mound. German was excellent in his first start despite what appears to be disappointing numbers. He had the strikeout stuff working, and he was burned by two home runs. He has actually struggled the first time through the order in his career, but the Guardians’ offense is flawed and does not strike fear in me. I like this bet a lot today.
Pick: -135
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Oakland Athletics at Baltimore Orioles – 6:35 PM ET
There are a number of angles to this bet, but most notably, this is a bet against the Athletics offense. Kyle Gibson is a perfectly serviceable starter, but he is normally not one who wows us. Throughout his career, Gibson has had a 0.309 wOBA the first time through the order, and while this doesn’t jump off the page, the Athletics offense is so poor that we should be able to get through this lineup with ease. This is even more so with the recent loss of Seth Brown, who was arguably the Athletics’ best hitter and will be going on the IL with an oblique injury.
For the Athletics, JP Sears takes the mound. Sears was part of the Frankie Montas trade and struggled after the trade. After his minor league career, where he posted K/9 numbers above 9, he saw this number drop in 2022. His first appearance of 2023 showed the K upside again, and while he was hurt by the long ball, the skills are there for him to be a great starter. The Orioles have a 151 wRC+ against lefties to begin the season, but the K% is elevated at 28%. This is definitely the risky side of the bet, but I like the talent of Sears enough to take this chance.
Pick: -125