Barney said:
Nice to see this thread in action again Volt
Thanks Barney!
2-2 yesterday, 10-7 season. Each site went 1-1 with season totals for PW at 5-5 and BP at 6-3.
Let’s have a good day, all!
https://www.pickswise.com/news/mlb-picks-tuesday-4-4-yrfi-nrfi-best-bets-today-ohtani-trout/
York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers: NRFI (-113) (apparently the Mets have changed their name)
Everything about the Mets today has to have you liking the NRFI. First, they are throwing Max Scherzer. Although the veteran right-hander lost on Opening Day, it was a quality start (3 runs allowed in 6.0 innings) against the Marlins and he did not allow a single run in the first 5 innings. Meanwhile, New York got shut out by Milwaukee on Monday and in 2 losses this season it has scored a grand total of 1 run. Four of the Mets’ first 5 hitters in the lineup are batting .190 or worse through 5 games. Unsurprisingly, they have scored a first-inning run only once in 5 contests.
Taking the mound for the Brewers is Wade Miley, who compiled a 3.16 ERA in 9 appearances (8 starts) with the Cubs last year after pitching to a 3.37 ERA in 28 starts with Cincinnati in 2021. The southpaw should be able to get off to a hot start against a top of the Mets’ batting order that has been cold.
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https://www.bettingpros.com/articles/mlb-no-runs-first-inning-nrfi-picks-predictions-tuesday-4-4/
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres, 4:10 PM ET
This NL West matchup features two top-of-the-rotation arms, with Zac Gallen facing off against Yu Darvish. Though Gallen got off to a rough start in his 2023 campaign against the Dodgers, that outing is not indicative of the type of pitcher he is. Gallen went 12-4 last season, posting a career-best 2.54 ERA (3.17 xERA, ranking in the 78th percentile). His advanced metrics were fantastic, ranking above the 70th percentile in xBA, K%, xSLG, and chase rate. For all the firepower in the Padres lineup, they were only able to eclipse three runs in one of their opening four games, and Gallen is a better starting pitcher than anyone they saw on the Rockies.
Darvish will take the mound for the first time this season, coming off of another rock-solid year in 2022. Darvish has been elite in recent seasons avoiding the free pass, walking less than 5% of the batters he faced in 2022 (91st percentile). His metrics are very comparable to Gallen’s, ranking better than the 60th percentile in xERA, xBA, and K%. Arizona’s lineup has also gotten off to a slow start, scoring more than two runs in just one of their games this year with only two of their major contributors batting over .250. I like these two aces to have a clean first inning and cash this bet.
Bet: 1st Inning Under 0.5 Runs (-136)
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Cleveland Guardians at Oakland Athletics, 9:40 PM ET
Shane Bieber will get the ball for the Guardians, coming off a scoreless 6-inning start against a solid Mariners lineup. He had another stellar year in 2022, racking up 13 wins with a .288 ERA (3.51 xERA ranked in the 64th percentile). He has had outstanding control of the strike zone for his entire career, walking less than 5% of his batters faced last year en route to a 5.5 K/BB ratio. He strikes out batters and misses bats at a rate well above average, with his chase rate and whiff % both ranking in the 70th percentile. He will be facing off against a very barren A’s offense, who averaged a pathetic 1 run per game in their opening series against the Angels.
JP Sears is a relatively unknown commodity, earning a spot in the A’s rotation after a solid 2022 season spent between the A’s and Yankees. He went 3-0 in New York, surrendering only one home run in 22 innings pitched and posting a stellar 2.05 ERA with a 0.864 WHIP. Sears is a lefty, which helps to neutralize a Guardians lineup with left-handed batters and switch hitters that have an advantage against right-handed pitchers. Though his cup of coffee in the Majors didn’t generate enough data to put any stock in his advanced metrics, I trust his pedigree and track record of success at the Triple-A level to be able to navigate through this Guardians lineup without allowing a run in the opening frame.
Bet: 1st Inning Under 0.5 Runs (-160)