For what it’s worth, last night, I would have had myself a sweep but for the damned Dodgers. I finished the day +8.17 units, leaving me -10.52 units for the season. That’s still not good, but it is a lot better than it was just a few days ago.
Mondy night the Dodgers were in a tough spot coming off a big Sunday night extra-inning game in ATL, but the spot wasn’t great for the Rockies, being the first home game after a tough road trip. I did not expect the Dodgers to lose, especially to the likes of Chad Kuhl. Kuhl sucks and having him toss a complete game shutout against them should have motivated them, but that’s not what happened last night as the Rockies won again 7-4.
The Rockies roughed up Clayton Kershaw for 6 runs and 9 hits over 4 innings, his shortest outing in Colorado since he gave up 5 runs in 3 innings in his first career start there on July 22, 2008. Kershaw struck out 4, but also walked 4 after walking just 7 in his previous 8 starts this season. He is now 11-7 with a 4.81 ERA in 25 career starts at Coors Field. That’s his highest ERA at any venue.
Fortunately, all the other teams that I used on my parlay card did cash, including the Yanks full game, the Blue Jays 1st 5, and the Rangers 1st 5 and full game. I also cashed a side bet on the Astros 1st 5.
We have a full slate today with several day games, so let’s get right to it. I’m feeling good about these games, so here’s my very large card.
ML Parlays
|
Team 1
|
Tean 2
|
Odds
|
Units
|
|
NYY ML
|
HTN 1st 5
|
132
|
2
|
|
NYY ML
|
SF 1st 5
|
102
|
2
|
|
NYY ML
|
SF full game
|
102
|
2
|
|
NYY ML
|
TOR 1st 5
|
120
|
2
|
|
NYY ML
|
LAD full game
|
106
|
2
|
|
NYY ML
|
LAA 1st 5
|
112
|
2
|
|
HTN 1st 5
|
SF 1st 5
|
154
|
2
|
|
HTN 1st 5
|
SF full game
|
154
|
2
|
|
HTN 1st 5
|
TOR 1st 5
|
176
|
2
|
|
HTN 1st 5
|
LAD full game
|
158
|
2
|
|
HTN 1st 5
|
LAA 1st 5
|
165
|
2
|
|
SF 1st 5
|
TOR 1st 5
|
141
|
2
|
|
SF 1st 5
|
LAD full game
|
125
|
2
|
|
SF 1st 5
|
LAA 1st 5
|
131
|
2
|
|
SF full game
|
TOR 1st 5
|
141
|
2
|
|
SF full game
|
LAD full game
|
125
|
2
|
|
SF full game
|
LAA 1st 5
|
131
|
2
|
|
TOR 1st 5
|
LAD full game
|
117
|
2
|
|
TOR 1st 5
|
LAA 1st 5
|
119
|
2
|
|
LAD full game
|
LAA 1st 5
|
106
|
2
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sides
|
TEX 1st 5
|
|
-115
|
2
|
|
TEX full game
|
|
-108
|
2
|
|
SD full game
|
|
-129
|
2
|
|
ATL 1st 5
|
|
-133
|
2
|
|
ATL full game
|
|
-130
|
2
|
|
MIA 1st 5
|
|
-130
|
2
|
Here are the first three game breakdowns. I’ll post more later
OAK @ NYY
Starting Pitchers
1:05
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
HC%
|
GB%
|
OAK
|
Irvin - L
|
(7/12)
|
(5/12)
|
1.24
|
3.29
|
5.29
|
4.31
|
4.38
|
4.51
|
0.316
|
0.371
|
16.5%
|
6.0%
|
40.2%
|
40.8%
|
NYY
|
Taillon - R
|
(8/14)
|
(6/14)
|
1.11
|
3.19
|
3.61
|
3.31
|
3.67
|
3.79
|
0.306
|
0.314
|
19.5%
|
2.8%
|
35.9%
|
41.4%
|
Edge – NYY
Bullpens
Team
|
W-L
|
SV/SVO
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
OAK
|
(10-14)
|
16/29
|
0.56
|
26
|
1.38
|
26
|
4.57
|
26
|
69.5%
|
23
|
19.8%
|
24
|
8.9%
|
24
|
NYY
|
26-11
|
26/36
|
0.34
|
1
|
1.09
|
1
|
2.81
|
2
|
77.0%
|
2
|
25.1%
|
2
|
7.0%
|
2
|
Edge – NYY big
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
HardHit%
|
Rank
|
Barrel%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
OAK
|
3.17
|
29
|
0.267
|
30
|
76
|
29
|
-73.8
|
29
|
0.118
|
29
|
7.0%
|
28
|
34.7%
|
29
|
6.0%
|
27
|
23.5%
|
22
|
NYY
|
5.04
|
1
|
0.330
|
1
|
117
|
1
|
53.6
|
1
|
0.195
|
1
|
10.2%
|
1
|
43.4%
|
2
|
11.2%
|
2
|
21.9%
|
12
|
Edge – NYY – big
Conclusion: This is a huge mismatch as we have the team with the worst record in the league, the A’s (25-51) travelling to face the team with the best record in the league, the Yankees (55-20).
Offensively, the Yanks ranks 1st in RPG, wOBA, wRC+, ORAA and ISO and walk rate , as well as 2nd in hard hit and barrel rates. By contrast, the A’s rank among the bottom three teams in the league in almost every one of those categories. This isn’t at all close.
As for the two bullpens, that’salmost as big a mismatch as the offenses are. The Yanks rank among the top two in R/IP, WHIP, ERA and strand rate, while the A’s rank in the bottom third of the league in all of those categories. That brings us to the two starting pitchers, which is a closer matchup, but still favors the A’s.
Cole Irvin has started 12 games for the A’s with 7 grading as above average and 5 grading as below. His WHIP is decent and his eRA is solid, but his ERA metrics are all at least a full run higher than his ERA and his xERA is 2 runs higher. We see the same pattern with Irvin’s xwOBA which is more than 50 points higher than his actual wOBA. A big culprit in those discrepancies is Irvin’s lousy K rate. The metrics guys don’t like poor K rates and tend to downgrade pitchers who don’t generate lots of Ks.
Jameson Taillon is having a good season. Taillon has now started 14 games with 8 grading as above average and 6 grading as below. He has given up 3 runs or less in 12 of his 14 starts and in 9 of them it was 2 runs or less. His WHIP and ERA are both very good, but Taillon’s ERA metrics are mostly about a half a run higher than his ERA, but still in the mid-3s. His wOBA and xwOBA are are almost identical and both slightly lower than league average with a decent K rate and a very low walk and low hard contact rate. The bottom line is that Taillon is pitching well and for the most part has kept the Yanks in almost every game that he’s started, and with their prolific offense, more often than not, that’s been good enough.
Not surprisingly, everything points to the Yanks here and most of it isn’t very close. I can’t fade this team here.
Pick – NYY full game ML in a series of parlays.
HTN @ NYM
Starting Pitchers
1:10
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
HC%
|
GB%
|
HTN
|
Verkander - R
|
(11/14)
|
(3/14)
|
0.87
|
2.22
|
3.11
|
3.53
|
3.59
|
3.47
|
0.245
|
0.293
|
24.3%
|
4.6%
|
36.2%
|
38.5%
|
NYM
|
Walker - R
|
(8/12)
|
*4/12)
|
1.21
|
3.03
|
3.87
|
3.11
|
3.83
|
4.17
|
0.278
|
0.324
|
18.4%
|
7.1%
|
44.4%
|
49.0%
|
Edge - HTN
Bullpens
N/A – This is a 1st 5 bet only
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
HardHit%
|
Rank
|
Barrel%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
HOU
|
4.36
|
18
|
0.322
|
7
|
113
|
2
|
35.2
|
6
|
0.180
|
3
|
9.5%
|
5
|
40.1%
|
8
|
8.4%
|
11
|
20.0%
|
3
|
NYM
|
4.88
|
3
|
0.321
|
8
|
112
|
5
|
38.7
|
4
|
0.144
|
19
|
8.0%
|
18
|
37.0%
|
20
|
6.4%
|
23
|
20.0%
|
3
|
Edge – NYM slight
Conclusion: Offensively, these two teams are pretty evenly matched. The Mets average a little more than a half a run per game more, but everything else is so damned close that any edge is so very marginal as to be almost not relevaant.
This bet is all about the two starting pitchers and there I give the Astros a big edge with Justin Verlander.
Justin Verlander has now started 14 games for the Astros this season with 11 grading as above average and 3 g5qrding as below. That’s left him with a sub-1.00 WHIP and a low 2s ERA. His ERA metrics are all about a ru higher than his stellar ERA, but still very good. We see the same pattern with Verlander’s xwOBA which is about 50 point higher than his actual one, but still more than 30 points lower than league average. His K rate is solid with a low walk and hard contact rate. It was probably fair to question whether at 39, Verlander could come back from TJ surgery. He had almost 3,000 innings on that right arm and had only thrown six innings over the previous 23 months leading up to this season. However, he was also one of the game’s most dominant hurlers with more than 3,000 Ks. His two-and-a-half seasons with the Astros have been absolutely incredible. The two-time Cy Young Award winner has looked amazing and I’m not betting against him here. Excluding two really bad starts, Verlander has been elite and much better than I expected.
Taijuan Walker has now started 12 games for the Mets this season with 8 grading as above average and 4 grading as below. His WHIP and ERA are both very good and while his ERA metrics are almost all at least a half a run higher than his ERA, they are still pretty good. Walker’s xwOBA is also more than 40 points higher than his actual wOBA, but still right around league average. Walker’s doesn’t miss many bats. His K rate is lousy and his walk rate is pretty high for a guy who doesn’t miss bats, but he is generating a solid GB rate so that’s somethings and his .292 BABIP is a little higher than his career mark of .276, so maybe we see some improvement there. Walker’s numbers are fine. They’re just not as good as Verlanders’s.
If Verlander happens to have another bad start, I’ll lose this bet, but the odds are in my favor and that’s how I’m beting it.
Picks – HTN 1st 5 ML
TEX @ KC
Starting Pitchers
2:10
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
HC%
|
GB%
|
TX
|
Dunning - R
|
(7/15)
|
(8/15)
|
1,33
|
4.17
|
4.20
|
3.92
|
3.88
|
3.98
|
0.321
|
0.336
|
20.8%
|
8.2%
|
38.0%
|
52.5%
|
KC
|
Greinke - R
|
(7/11)
|
(3/11)
|
1.27
|
4.68
|
5.56
|
4.33
|
4.72
|
4.91
|
0.312
|
0.371
|
11.9%
|
4.1%
|
41.4%
|
40.1%
|
Edge – TEX
Bullpens
Team
|
W-L
|
SV/SVO
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
TEX
|
17-17
|
17/28
|
0.44
|
10
|
1.18
|
8
|
3.39
|
9
|
72.7%
|
13
|
21.8%
|
20
|
9.2%
|
25
|
KCR
|
15-12
|
14/23
|
0.58
|
28
|
1.45
|
28
|
4.74
|
29
|
68.6%
|
26
|
18.5%
|
29
|
10.2%
|
30
|
Edge - TEX
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
HardHit%
|
Rank
|
Barrel%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
TEX
|
4.44
|
13
|
0.302
|
22
|
98
|
19
|
7.0
|
14
|
0.154
|
13
|
7.5%
|
26
|
39.6%
|
11
|
7.7%
|
14
|
22.9%
|
19
|
KCR
|
3.85
|
27
|
0.297
|
25
|
91
|
24
|
-23.8
|
23
|
0.133
|
26
|
8.1%
|
16
|
38.2%
|
15
|
6.9%
|
19
|
20.5%
|
7
|
Edge – TEX
Conclusion: The Rangers have the clearly better offense, by a wide margin and the better bullpen. I think that they also have the better starting pitcher with Dane Dunning.
Dunning has started 15 games for the Rangers this season with 7 grading as above average and 8 grading as below. His WHIP is high and his ERA is mediocre, but his ERA metrics are all a little lower than his ERA. Dunnings wOBA iand xwOBA are both right around league average, with a decent K rate as well as a very good GB rate, but a walk rate that’s a little on the high side.
Zack Greinke’s best days are way back in his rear-view mirror. This once elite starting pitcher has been reduced to mediocrity and probably even worse by time and deterioration. Greinke’s WHIP is getting up there and his ERA is high. His xERA is a full run higher than his already ERA and his ERA metrics are all right up there as well. We see the same pattern when we look at his xWOBA, which is about 60 points higher than his actual one. While he still doesn’t walk many batters, Greinke’s K rate is also pathetic. All his metrics say that the bottom is falling out on this guy.
With the exception of a lower walk rate, most of the stats tilt to Dunning who has managed to keep the Rangers in most of his starts. As for Greinke, stick a fork in hum, he’s done.
I’ll back the better starting pitcher at this stage of their careers and the better hitting team. That’s the Rangers
Pick – TEX 1st 5 and full game MLs