For what it’s worth, last night’s PHIL/SD game was the gut punch that got me. It was mostly a weird day anyway, but that one game was the real killer. I needed the game and felt very confident going in, but all that changed in the 5th inning. Through 4 innings, the Padres Joe Musgrove was literally unhittable and a solo shoot by Eric Hosmer in the 2nd had given him a 1-0 lead going into the 5th. In the top of the 5th after Musfrove got the first batter, he gave up a single, threw a wild pitch and then gave up another single to tie the game at 1-1 and kill my 1st 5 RL bet. Without that wild pitch, Musgrove would have escaped. The Phils put this one away in the top of the 6th with a 2-run shot from LF Kyle Schwarberand a 3 run shot from C JT Realmuto making it 6-1 and killing my parlay with the Dodgers. Musgrove hadn’t given up more than 2 earned runs or more than 1 HR in any of his first 12 starts, but last night he gave up 6 earned runs and 2 HRs. It was by far his worst start of the season and I was heavily invested on him. There’s no rhyme or reason to it, but sometimes it just works out that way. You just accept it and try to move on.
AS for my winners, that’s easy. For the third time in the last 3 days, the Dodgers crushed the Reds 10-5, winning their half of my one parlay and cashing a RL bet as well. Unfortunately that was it for winners.
I also played a couple of totals, which might not have been my wisest decision, considering my total track record. I had the Dodgers/Reds under 4.5, but the Dodgers killed that one by scoring 5 runs in the first 4 innings.
Finally, I had Astros/Yankees 1st 5 under 4.5 as well. Now that was an amazing game and I got to watch. I knew my under was in big trouble when 3B Alex Bregman connected for a 3-run blast off Jameson Taillon in the 1st, giving the Astros a 3-0 lead right out of the gate. However, the Yanks came right back with a 3-run blast of their own from DH Giancalo Stanton off Framber Valdez to tie the game at 3-3. It took last than one inning to kill and bury my under bet. Two inning later Astros LF Yordan Alvarez rubbed even more salt into my wound by clubbing another 3-run shot off Taillon, giving the Astros a 6-3 lead. The game stayed right there at 6-3 until the bottom of the 9th when the Yanks struck again. Ryan Pressley immediately put himself in a hole by walking the first two batters that he faced. That set the stage for Hicks who tied the game with a dramatic 3-run shot to right that tied the game 6-6. After giving up another single Pressley was pulled for Ryne Stanek, who got the first natter he faced to strike out swinging, but walked the next batter setting the stage for Aaron Judge who singled in the game winning run and completed the Yanks comeback. It was the Yankees' 9th walk-off win this season.
I Ended up -3.30 units for the day, leaving me -28.21 units for the season.
I somehow lost my spreadsheets last night, so I had to rebuild and recreate a lot of data, so there will be no breakdowns tonight. The numbers will truly speak for themselves. I also decided to confine myself to 1st 5 bets only todayand just ignore the bullpens. We’ll see how it goes.
I like several teams, so I used them in parlays. Here is the parlay card.
ML Parlays
|
Team 1
|
Tean 2
|
Odds
|
Units
|
|
MIA 1st 5
|
TB 1st 5
|
152
|
1
|
|
MIA 1st 5
|
LAD 1st 5
|
185
|
1
|
|
MIA 1st 5
|
TEX 1st 5
|
176
|
1
|
|
MIA 1st 5
|
CHI WS 1st 5
|
178
|
1
|
|
MIA 1st 5
|
TO 1st 5
|
172
|
1
|
|
MIA 1st 5
|
ARIZ 1st 5
|
165
|
1
|
|
MIA 1st 5
|
SF 1st 5
|
156
|
1
|
|
TB 1st 5
|
LAD 1st 5
|
155
|
1
|
|
TB 1st 5
|
TEX 1st 5
|
147
|
1
|
|
TB 1st 5
|
CHI WS 1st 5
|
149
|
1
|
|
TB 1st 5
|
TOR 1st 5
|
144
|
1
|
|
TB 1st 5
|
ARIZ 1st 5
|
138
|
1
|
|
TB 1st 5
|
SF 1st 5
|
129
|
1
|
|
LAD 1st 5
|
TEX 1st 5
|
180
|
1
|
|
LAD 1st 5
|
CHI WS 1st 5
|
182
|
1
|
|
LAD 1st 5
|
TOR 1st 5
|
175
|
1
|
|
LAD 1st 5
|
ARIZ 1st 5
|
169
|
1
|
|
LAD 1st 5
|
SF 1st 5
|
159
|
1
|
|
TEX 1st 5
|
CHI WS 1st 5
|
173
|
1
|
|
TEX 1st 5
|
TOR 1st 5
|
167
|
1
|
|
TEX 1st 5
|
ARIZ 1st 5
|
160
|
1
|
|
TEX 1st 5
|
SF 1st 5
|
151
|
1
|
|
CHI WS 1st 5
|
TOR 1st 5
|
169
|
1
|
|
CHI WS 1st 5
|
ARIZ 1st 5
|
162
|
1
|
|
CHI WS 1st 5
|
SF 1st 5
|
153
|
1
|
|
TOR 1st 5
|
ARIZ 1st 5
|
156
|
1
|
|
TOR 1st 5
|
SF 1st 5
|
137
|
1
|
|
ARIZ 1st 5
|
SF 1st 5
|
141
|
1
|
I also put 1 unit on the 1st 5 under 4 (-108) in the NTN @ NYY game again tonite. Same logic as last night with two quality pitchers.
I also added PHIL 1st 5 to my parlay card at the last minute with a 1 unit bet with each of the other teams I used, but I did not have time to add it to the chart.
I’ll post the late games later
NYM @ MIA
Starting Pitchers
6:40
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
HC%
|
GB%
|
NYM
|
Walker - R
|
(7/11)
|
(4/11)
|
1.16
|
2.88
|
3.81
|
3.17
|
3.95
|
4.25
|
0.273
|
0.322
|
16.3%
|
7.1%
|
43.6%
|
46.9%
|
MIA
|
Alcanrara - R
|
(11/14)
|
(2/14)
|
0.96
|
1.72
|
2.59
|
2.84
|
3.46
|
3.57
|
0.279
|
0.288
|
23.6%
|
7.3%
|
35.3%
|
54.3%
|
Edge – MIA
Bullpens
N/A – This is a 1st 5 only
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
HardHit%
|
Rank
|
Barrel%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
NYM
|
4.97
|
3
|
0.323
|
6
|
113
|
4
|
39.8
|
3
|
0.141
|
21
|
8.2%
|
15
|
37.0%
|
20
|
6.2%
|
26
|
19.9%
|
4
|
MIA
|
4.51
|
13
|
0.313
|
14
|
104
|
12
|
11.2
|
13
|
0.155
|
13
|
8.0%
|
18
|
37.3%
|
19
|
7.9%
|
12
|
23.8%
|
25
|
Edge – NYM
Conclusion: Give me the elite pitcher for five innings
Pick – MIA 1st 5 in a series of parlays
PITT @ TB
Starting Pitchers
7:10
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
HC%
|
GB%
|
PITT
|
Keller - R
|
(5/11)
|
(6/11)
|
1.44
|
4.72
|
4.30
|
4.25
|
4.49
|
4.51
|
0.330
|
0.339
|
18.6%
|
9.7%
|
33.3%
|
49.5%
|
TB
|
Springs - L
|
(5/9)
|
(4/9)
|
0.98
|
2.00
|
3.12
|
2.98
|
3.25
|
3.26
|
0.256
|
0.293
|
26.8%
|
6.2%
|
35.7%
|
42.0%
|
Edge – TB
Bullpens
N/A – This is a 1st 5 only
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
HardHit%
|
Rank
|
Barrel%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
PIT
|
3.67
|
28
|
0.288
|
28
|
84
|
28
|
-51.7
|
28
|
0.140
|
23
|
8.5%
|
12
|
38.2%
|
14
|
7.2%
|
18
|
25.0%
|
28
|
TBR
|
4.03
|
24
|
0.295
|
27
|
97
|
19
|
-6.9
|
20
|
0.143
|
19
|
7.6%
|
24
|
38.1%
|
16
|
6.3%
|
24
|
23.3%
|
21
|
Edge – TB
Conclusion: The Rays have the better offense (that’s close) and the better startingpitcher.
Pick – TB 1st 5 ML in a series of parlays
LAD @ ATL
Starting Pitchers
7:20
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
HC%
|
GB%
|
LAD
|
Urias - L
|
(9/13)
|
(4/13)
|
1.02
|
2.56
|
3.17
|
4.35
|
4.13
|
3.96
|
0.285
|
0.295
|
22.2%
|
6.1%
|
26.1%
|
35.9%
|
ATL
|
Andrson - R
|
(7/13)
|
(8/13)
|
1.39
|
4.35
|
3.78
|
4.34
|
4.27
|
4.56
|
0.388
|
0.324
|
19.7%
|
10.7%
|
40.4%
|
48.1%
|
Edge – LAD
Bullpens
N/A – This is a 1st 5 only
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
HardHit%
|
Rank
|
Barrel%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
LAD
|
5.18
|
1
|
0.329
|
2
|
114
|
2
|
49.5
|
2
|
0.173
|
5
|
10.3%
|
1
|
41.1%
|
5
|
9.3%
|
5
|
21.5%
|
11
|
ATL
|
4.79
|
6
|
0.328
|
4
|
108
|
7
|
25.9
|
8
|
0.194
|
2
|
7.9%
|
19
|
43.5%
|
3
|
11.7%
|
1
|
25.2%
|
29
|
Edge – LAD
Conclusions: These are two very good offenses. The Braves are good, but the Dodgers are better. As for the two starting pitchers, Urias hold all the edges Andrson’s number just aren’t that good.
Pick – LAD 1st 5 in a series of parlays
WASH @ TEX
Starting Pitchers
8:05
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
HC%
|
GB%
|
WASH
|
Espino
|
(1/2)
|
(1/2)
|
1.08
|
2.29
|
3.57
|
3.39
|
4.16
|
3.92
|
0.268
|
0.312
|
19.3%
|
5.7%
|
37.1%
|
38.1%
|
TEX
|
Dunning
|
(6/14)
|
(8/14)
|
1.33
|
4.38
|
4.18
|
4.00
|
3.82
|
3.95
|
0.317
|
0.335
|
21.2%
|
8.5%
|
38.5%
|
53.2%
|
Edge – TEX
Bullpens
N/A – This is a 1st 5 only
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
HardHit%
|
Rank
|
Barrel%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
WSN
|
4.06
|
23
|
0.307
|
20
|
95
|
22
|
-27.7
|
24
|
0.126
|
28
|
8.2%
|
15
|
35.8%
|
24
|
6.6%
|
21
|
19.4%
|
2
|
TEX
|
4.38
|
15
|
0.301
|
23
|
97
|
19
|
4.1
|
16
|
0.155
|
13
|
7.4%
|
25
|
39.5%
|
11
|
7.8%
|
13
|
23.2%
|
20
|
Edge – TConclusion: The Nats stink and the Rangers don’t. With the exception of a slightly lower wOBA, the Rangers hold all the other offensive edge. As for the two starting pitchers, Dunning is not good, but he has kept the Rangers in most of his starts. Espino has not.
Pick – TEX 1st 5 in a series of parlays
BALT @ CHI WS
Starting Pitchers
8:10
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
HC%
|
GB%
|
BALT
|
Bradish - R
|
(1/10)
|
(8/10)
|
1.77
|
7.38
|
6.33
|
5.59
|
4.03
|
4.11
|
0.416
|
0.399
|
21.7%
|
8.5%
|
42.8%
|
42.1%
|
CHI WS
|
Kopech - R
|
)9/12)
|
(3/12)
|
0.99
|
2.38
|
3.33
|
3.49
|
4.54
|
4.38
|
0.236
|
0.302
|
24.6%
|
11.2%
|
36.4%
|
29.4%
|
Edge – CHI WS big
Bullpens
N/A – This is a 1st 5 only
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
HardHit%
|
Rank
|
Barrel%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BAL
|
4.07
|
22
|
0.299
|
24
|
93
|
23
|
-19.5
|
22
|
0.149
|
16
|
7.4%
|
25
|
39.8%
|
10
|
8.4%
|
10
|
23.9%
|
26
|
CHW
|
3.22
|
21
|
0.305
|
21
|
100
|
17
|
3.6
|
17
|
0.127
|
27
|
6.5%
|
29
|
39.9%
|
9
|
7.7%
|
16
|
20.3%
|
6
|
Edge – CHI WS
Conclusion: Neither team hits very well but the White Sox are statistically a little beeter than the O’. The starting pitching matchup is a compete mismatch. Bradish’s numbers are awful and Ko[ech’s are pretty good.
Pick – CHI WS 1st 5 in a series of parlays
TOR @ MIL
Starting Pitchers
8:10
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
HC%
|
GB%
|
TOR
|
Manoah - R
|
(11/13)
|
(1/13)
|
0.94
|
2.00
|
2.55
|
2.91
|
3.75
|
3.64
|
0.251
|
0.266
|
22.9%
|
4.7%
|
25.8%
|
38.0%
|
MIL
|
Houser - R
|
(7/13)
|
(6/13)
|
1.43
|
4.24
|
4.33
|
3.97
|
4.19
|
4.60
|
0.316
|
0.340
|
18.2%
|
9.8%
|
39.3%
|
46.4%
|
Edge – TOR big
Bullpens
N/A – This is a 1st 5 only
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
HardHit%
|
Rank
|
Barrel%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
TOR
|
4.68
|
10
|
0.329
|
2
|
112
|
5
|
36.0
|
4
|
0.175
|
4
|
8.3%
|
13
|
44.1%
|
1
|
9.0%
|
6
|
21.1%
|
10
|
MIL
|
4.35
|
17
|
0.311
|
15
|
97
|
19
|
-7.0
|
21
|
0.168
|
6
|
8.9%
|
8
|
38.8%
|
12
|
8.6%
|
8
|
23.7%
|
23
|
Edge – TOR big
Conclusion: Offensively this is a mismatch. The Jay hit much better, The starting pitching matchup should also be a mismatch,. Manoah is clearly better.
Pick – TOR 1st 5 ML in a series of parlays.