Here is my card for today.
ML Parlays
|
Team #1
|
Team #2
|
Odds
|
Units
|
|
PHIL 1st 5
|
SD ML
|
179
|
1
|
|
PHIL 1st 5
|
MIA 1st 5
|
153
|
1
|
|
PHIL 1st 5
|
LAD ML
|
193
|
1
|
|
PHIL 1st 5
|
NYY 1st 5
|
194
|
1
|
|
PHIL 1st 5
|
NYY ML
|
197
|
1
|
|
PHIL 1st 5
|
LAA 1st 5
|
141
|
1
|
|
SD ML
|
MIA 1st 5
|
140
|
1
|
|
SD ML
|
LAD ML
|
178
|
1
|
|
SD ML
|
NYY 1st 5
|
179
|
1
|
|
SD ML
|
NYY ML
|
183
|
1
|
|
SD ML
|
LAA 1st 5
|
129
|
1
|
|
MIA 1st 5
|
LAD ML
|
152
|
1
|
|
MIA 1st 5
|
NYY 1st 5
|
153
|
1
|
|
MIA 1st 5
|
NYY ML
|
156
|
1
|
|
MIA 1st 5
|
LAA 1st 5
|
108
|
1
|
|
LAD full game
|
NYY 1st 5
|
193
|
1
|
|
LAD full game
|
NYY ML
|
197
|
1
|
|
LAD full game
|
LAA 1st 5
|
189
|
1
|
|
NYY 1st 5
|
LAA 1st 5
|
141
|
1
|
|
NYY full game
|
LAA 1st 5
|
144
|
1
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sides
|
TOR full game ML
|
|
-108
|
1
|
|
SF 1st 5 ML
|
|
100
|
1
|
PHIL @ TEX
Starting Pitchers
4:05
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
HC%
|
GB%
|
PHIL
|
Wheeler - R
|
(9/12)
|
-3.12
|
1.04
|
2.69
|
2.82
|
2.31
|
2.99
|
3.02
|
0.271
|
0.280
|
27.8%
|
5.3%
|
34.4%
|
47.5%
|
TEX
|
Gray - R
|
(6/11)
|
(5/11)
|
1,20
|
4.27
|
3.52
|
3.36
|
3.60
|
3.71
|
0.290
|
0.311
|
25.8%
|
9.0%
|
38.5%
|
43.2%
|
Edge – PHIL
Bullpens
NA This is a 1st 5 only
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
HardHit%
|
Rank
|
Barrel%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
PHI
|
4.81
|
5
|
0.324
|
6
|
106
|
9
|
20.5
|
10
|
8.7%
|
11
|
40.5%
|
7
|
8.6%
|
7
|
22.5%
|
16
|
TEX
|
4.39
|
15
|
0.299
|
23
|
96
|
20
|
3.0
|
17
|
7.4%
|
27
|
39.5%
|
11
|
7.6%
|
16
|
23.0%
|
19
|
Edge – PHIL
Conclusion: For me this is simple. I’m riding an elite starting pitcher in Zack Wheeler for 5 innings and I’m staying far away from the Phils bullpen which stinks.
Pick – PHIL 1st 5 ML in a series of parlays.
ARIZ @ SD
Starting Pitchers
4:10
|
SP
|
GS +
|
(8/14)
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
HC%
|
GB%
|
ARIZ
|
Bumgarner - L
|
(6/14)
|
(8/14)
|
1.32
|
3.45
|
4.68
|
5.00
|
4.89
|
4.82
|
0.339
|
0.353
|
15.9%
|
7.6%
|
45.4%
|
40.1%
|
SD
|
Clevinger - R
|
(1/4)
|
(3/4)
|
1,26
|
3.79
|
3.42
|
3.28
|
3.30
|
3.46
|
0.284
|
0.307
|
27.2%
|
8.6%
|
36.5%
|
46.2%
|
Edge – SD
Bullpens
Team
|
W-L
|
SV/SVO
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
ARI
|
14-15
|
17/25
|
0.54
|
23
|
1.40
|
26
|
4.29
|
22
|
70.3%
|
20
|
18.7%
|
30
|
8.9%
|
14
|
SDP
|
18-11
|
23/33
|
0.44
|
9
|
1.11
|
3
|
3.52
|
10
|
72.1%
|
13
|
23.5%
|
17
|
7.2%
|
1
|
Edge – SD
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
HardHit%
|
Rank
|
Barrel%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
ARI
|
4.03
|
23
|
0.298
|
25
|
88
|
27
|
-25.9
|
25
|
9.3%
|
6
|
36.8%
|
21
|
7.7%
|
14
|
24.3%
|
27
|
SDP
|
4.67
|
9
|
0.310
|
15
|
102
|
13
|
7.1
|
13
|
9.3%
|
6
|
35.9%
|
23
|
6.0%
|
28
|
21.3%
|
11
|
Edge – SD
Conclusion: Both games were close, but the Padres took the first two games of this series in ARIZ. The Padres have the much better offense and the better of two shaky bullpens. Th Pades pen is unreliable, but the dBacks pen is worse. The only real question is at starting pitcher. The numbers, especially the ERA metrics all tilt to Clevinger, but it is still a small sample size. Bumgarner’s best seasons are all in his rear-view mirror, with just 6 of his 14 starts grading as above average. His wHIP is mediocre and his eRA metrics are all in the 4.00 to 5.00 range.
Pick – SD full game ML in a series of parlays.
COL @ MIA
Starting Pitchers
6:40
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
HC%
|
GB%
|
COL
|
Kuhl - R
|
(7/12)
|
(5/12)
|
1.42
|
3.69
|
4.15
|
4.09
|
4.54
|
4.79
|
0.324
|
0.335
|
17.8%
|
9.8%
|
43.2%
|
38.4%
|
MIA
|
Lopez - R
|
(8/13)
|
(5/13)
|
1.07
|
2.85
|
3.57
|
3.34
|
3.24
|
3.42
|
0.284
|
0.313
|
26.3%
|
6.6%
|
34.6%
|
45.6%
|
Edge – MIA big
Bullpens
N/A – This is a 1st 5 bet only
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
HardHit%
|
Rank
|
Barrel%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
COL
|
4.63
|
10
|
0.319
|
10
|
91
|
24
|
-34.4
|
26
|
7.7%
|
23
|
35.6%
|
24
|
6.2%
|
25
|
20.8%
|
9
|
MIA
|
4.50
|
13
|
0.310
|
15
|
102
|
13
|
4.2
|
15
|
8.1%
|
16
|
37.2%
|
19
|
7.8%
|
13
|
24.0%
|
26
|
Edge – MIA
Conclusion: The Marlins lost a close one yesterday 9-8 as their comeback came up a run short. Offensively, yesterday’s 9 run poutburst otwithstanding, the Rockies struggle to score away from Coors averaging just 3.2 RPGs.
This bet comes dowen to the two starting pitchers and the Marlins should have a huge edge with Pablo Lopez.
Lopez had all the statistical edges and most by a wide margin, such as a much better WHIP and and ERA and eRA metrics that are all at least a full run better than Kuhl’s. He also has the better wOBA and xwOBA as well as a an 8..5% better K rate and a 3.2% better walk rate.
Pick – MIA 1st 5 ML in a series of parlays
LAD @ CIN
Starting Pitchers
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
HC%
|
GB%
|
Anderson - L
|
(7/10)
|
(3/10)
|
0.94
|
2.82
|
3.03
|
3.08
|
3.71
|
3.46
|
0.268
|
0.290
|
23.8%
|
4.2%
|
29.9%
|
36.8%
|
Castillo - R
|
(5/8)
|
(3/8)
|
1.09
|
3.33
|
3.52
|
3.43
|
3.64
|
3.84
|
0.271
|
0.311
|
22.8%
|
7.9%
|
35.4%
|
48.8%
|
Edge – LAD
Bullpens
Team
|
W-L
|
SV/SVO
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
LAD
|
(10-14)
|
(17/24
|
0.42
|
6
|
1.15
|
7
|
3.41
|
8
|
73.1%
|
10
|
26.3%
|
4
|
7.7%
|
5
|
CIN
|
(9-10)
|
13/22
|
0.61
|
29
|
1.45
|
29
|
5.06
|
30
|
69.5%
|
24
|
23.8%
|
16
|
11.6%
|
28
|
Edge – LAD
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
HardHit%
|
Rank
|
Barrel%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
LAD
|
5.06
|
2
|
0.327
|
4
|
112
|
4
|
44.0
|
2
|
10.4%
|
1
|
41.3%
|
5
|
9.4%
|
4
|
21.5%
|
12
|
CIN
|
4.31
|
17
|
0.304
|
21
|
89
|
26
|
-38.9
|
27
|
8.0%
|
18
|
37.0%
|
20
|
6.5%
|
21
|
22.8%
|
18
|
Edge – LAD
Conclusion: The Dodgers won in a rout yesterday.
The Dodgers hold all the edges in this one. Offensively, the Dodgers are a top-five offense in every category except for K rate. By contrast, the Reds offense ranks well below average pretty much across the board. The Same analysis apprlies to these two bullpens. The Dodgers posses a top-ten pen, while the Reds pen is among the worst in baseball. That leaves the two starting pitchers and the Dodgers have almost all the edges with Tyler Anderson.
The Dodgers have a 21-13 road record in which their last nine wins were all by more than 1 run and 20 of those 21 road wins were by more than 1 run. The Reds have the 3rd worst record in the league at 23-49, they aren't any better at home at 12-21. I’m fading the Reds against a Dodgers team that is far superior to them at every level.
Pick – LAD full game ML in a series of parlays.
I’ll post the later games later.