ARIZ @ LAD
Starting Pitchers
10:10
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
GB%
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
ARIZ
|
Bumgarner - L
|
(4/7)
|
(3/7)
|
1.12
|
1.78
|
3.82
|
4.69
|
4.85
|
4.91
|
0.284
|
0.329
|
16.1%
|
9.7%
|
38.9%
|
0.205
|
88.0%
|
LAD
|
Gonsolin - R
|
(5/6)
|
(1/6)
|
1.07
|
1.33
|
2.51
|
3.44
|
4.16
|
4.40
|
0.246
|
0.270
|
21.1%
|
11.9%
|
48.6%
|
0.211
|
87.4%
|
Edge – LAD
Bullpens
Team
|
W-L
|
SV/SVO
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
ARI
|
(7-11
|
(12/17)
|
0.61
|
29
|
1.41
|
27
|
4.87
|
28
|
64.7%
|
28
|
17.7%
|
30
|
8.7%
|
9
|
LAD
|
(5-8)
|
(6/8)
|
0.37
|
4
|
1.02
|
1
|
3.14
|
5
|
74.4%
|
11
|
26.1%
|
6
|
7.5%
|
4
|
Edge – LAD big
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
Barrel%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
ARI
|
3.54
|
26
|
0.291
|
23
|
84
|
27
|
-17.5
|
25
|
10.1%
|
4
|
37.6%
|
18
|
7.4%
|
14
|
25.1%
|
28
|
LAD
|
5.27
|
1
|
0.325
|
5
|
112
|
6
|
22.0
|
4
|
11.1%
|
1
|
41.7%
|
6
|
9.4%
|
7
|
21.5%
|
9
|
Edge – LAD big
Conclusion: Last week was not a good one for the Dodgers. First, they drop two of three to the Pirates in PITT, then they return home and need a late comeback from a 4-2 deficit to salvage the 4th games of their series with the Phils aftrer dropping the first three games and givin gup 29 run in the process. I suspect there are some who are jumping off the Dadger bandwagon, but I;m not one of them.
In this game v the Dbacks, the Dodgers should hold all the edges and many of them by wide margins. The Dodger have the vastly superior offense. The Dodgers rank in the top ten in every single offensive category that I look at, while the Dbacks rank in the bottom 10.
The Dodgers also have the vastly superior bullpen. Yes, the Phils abused the Dodger pen over the weekend and they may be lingering effects to that, but the Dodgers’ pen still ranks in the top ten in almost all the bullpen stats that I look at. By contrast, with the exception of walk rate, the Dbacks’ pen ranks in the bottom 5.
That leaves the two starting pitchers to be considered and that looks like a much closer matchup.
Madison Bumgarner has now started 7 games for the Dbacks with 4 of his last 5 grading as above average and 3, including his first 2 grading as below. Bumgarner has given up 9 runs (6 earned) on 22 hits and 12 walks over 30.1 innings with 20 Ks. His WHIP and ERA are both very good and that’s surprising. Bumgarner still has his moments, but they’ve become fewer and fewer with each passing season. His ERA metrics are all mediocre, at least 2 runs higher than his ERA. Factors there include a K rate that’s been in decline for quite a while now and is currently about 7% lower than his career rate and an unsutainably low BABIP that’s about 70 points lower than his career average. Bumgarner’s still capable of an occasional strong outing or even a few of them, but he’s now just a shell of the ace that h was back in the day with the Giants.
Tony Gonsolid has now started 6 games for the Dodgers with 5 grading as above average and just 1 grading as below. He has given up 5 runs (4 earned) on 16 hits and 13 walks over 27 innings with 13 Ks. The walks are the big concern. Gonsolin’s WHIP and ERA are both excellent, but like Bumgarner, his ERA metrics are all 1 to 2 run higher than his ERA. and his xwOBA is about 25 points higher than his actual one. His very high walk rate and a BABIP that’s 75 points lower than his career average are the big culprits there. The biggest concern is the walk rate. Gonsolin has had 3 starts in which he has walked at least 3 and that’s just asking for trouble.
The Dodgers are simply the much better team, and after a week like they just endured, I;m looking for them to take out some frustration on a bad Dback team.
Pick – LAD ML in a series of parlays