For what It’s worth, my really bas stretch continued yesterday thanks to a complete meltdown by Giants’ SP Carlos Rodon. Coming into this start, Rodon has been pitching great. He hadn’t allowed more than 2 runs in any of his starts and was carrying a sub-1.00 WHIP, a sub-2.00 ERA and an elite K rate. Unfortunately, it all went to hell last night. Rodón, who had given up just 7 runs over his previous six starts, gave up 8 last night on 10 hits and a walk over 3.2 innings with just 3 Ks! What in the hell happened? I can’t explain it, but from what I saw, Rodon was struggling with his command. He wasn’t really wild and only walked 1. It was more that he couldn’t consistently put his FB where’re he wanted to. He just grooved too many and I don’t care how hard you throw, if you if you throw it in a good hitter’s wheelhouse…forget about it. Rodon was also unliucky, victimized by some poorly hit blooper that happened to fall in exactly the wrong spot. Another thing that I still don’t get is why a manager would keep a starter in to take that kind of beatdown. Rodon was obviously struggling. Why not pull him quickly, while the game is still in reach. It didn’t stay within reach long. It got so bad that with the Cards ahead by 13, Albert Pujols overheard manager Oliver Marmol asking for someone to throw the final inning so the team could avoid using another reliever. Pujols volunteered, and pitched the 9th for the first time in his illustrious 22-year career. He gave up a three-run HR and a another solo HR, but managed to get the final three outs with plenty of margin to spare.
As for me, I’ve had bad stretches before and I’m sure I’ll have some more, but nothing quite like this one. The only thing I can do about it is to keep plugging away. My parlay system is a “high variance strategy”, but it is one that has consistently hit at an over 80% clip over the past several seasons, just not so far this season. I expect that will change, hopefully before I dig myself a hole too deep to get out of. I still trust the process and believe that by the time we hit the end of the regular season we’ll see those big faves winning around 80% again this season.
As for the recap, other than the Giants and Rodon, I also backed the Astros and Justin Verlander and that one went exactly as expected. Verlander was great and the Astros cruised. Unfortunately, one team can’t win a parlay and I didn’t have another.
As a result, I dropped 8 more units yesterday. That leaves me -19.20 units for the season. This is getting serious and needs to change soon. Here’s hoping.
BTW, thanks to those of you who took the time out of your busy schedules to post some encouraging words. They are truly appreciated. I’m not giving up. The season is still young and I still believe in my process. It has been a long-term winner for years and I believe it will win again this season.
Lat’s move on to today. Here is the full card
ML Parlays
|
Team 1
|
Tean 2
|
Odds
|
Units
|
|
|
TB 1st 5
|
MIA 1st 5
|
136
|
2
|
|
|
TB 1st 5
|
MIA ML
|
137
|
2
|
|
|
TB 1st 5
|
NYY ML
|
133
|
2
|
|
|
TB 1st 5
|
LAD ML
|
122
|
2
|
|
|
TB ML
|
MIA 1st 5
|
134
|
2
|
|
|
TB ML
|
MIA ML
|
136
|
2
|
|
|
TB ML
|
NYY ML
|
132
|
2
|
|
|
TB ML
|
LAD ML
|
121
|
2
|
|
|
MIA 1st 5
|
NYY ML
|
136
|
2
|
|
|
MIA 1st 5
|
LAD ML
|
124
|
2
|
|
|
MIA ML
|
NYY ML
|
137
|
2
|
|
|
MIA ML
|
LAD ML
|
126
|
2
|
|
|
NYY ML
|
LAD ML
|
122
|
2
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sides
|
LAA ML
|
|
-137
|
2
|
|
Here is have for writ ups so. We ere expecting some severe storms this afternoon, and it just started raining and thundering., so I’m posting what I’ve done so far. I’ll post the rest later on if I am lucky enough not to lose powe.
DET @ TB
Starting Pitchers
6:40
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
GB%
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
DET
|
Faedo - R
|
(1/2)
|
(1/2)
|
1.50
|
3.60
|
3.93
|
3.70
|
3.76
|
4.06
|
0.354
|
0.333
|
18.6%
|
7.0%
|
45.2%
|
0.355
|
80.9%
|
TB
|
Kluber
|
(4/6)
|
(2/6)
|
1.31
|
4.55
|
5.55
|
3.74
|
3.55
|
3.56
|
0.299
|
0.287
|
21.6%
|
4.8%
|
31.8%
|
0.333
|
72.7%
|
Edge TB
Bullpens
Team
|
W-L
|
SV/SVO
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
DET
|
(7-9)
|
(8/11)
|
0.33
|
2
|
1.09
|
3
|
2.73
|
3
|
77.3%
|
6
|
23.1%
|
18
|
10.3%
|
23
|
TBR
|
(15-5)
|
(11/17)
|
0.50
|
19
|
1.10
|
4
|
3.52
|
13
|
68.4%
|
23
|
22.7%
|
21
|
7.2%
|
2
|
Edge – None
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
Barrel%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
DET
|
2.86
|
30
|
0.276
|
29
|
83
|
28
|
-30.6
|
28
|
7.9%
|
24
|
34.7%
|
29
|
6.0%
|
29
|
23.2%
|
17
|
TBR
|
4.17
|
13
|
0.302
|
18
|
107
|
12
|
9.9
|
12
|
8.0%
|
19
|
39.1%
|
14
|
6.4%
|
25
|
23.8%
|
20
|
Edge – TB
Conclusion: This one is definitely not a no-brainer, but the Rays are the much better team in most respects. They have the much better offense. The Rays don’t have a great offense, but it is certainly better than the bottom-feeding Tigers, who rank in the bottom three in RPG, wOBA, wRC+ and ORAA.
The bullpen matchup looks surprising close. The Tigers’ pen has been a lot better than most (including yours truly) didn’t expect to be very good. The Rays’ pen, on the other hand, is always good, and manager Kevin Cash seems to always get the best out of his bullpen.
What gives me pause here is the starting pitching matchup.
Alex Faedo has only started 2 games with 1 grading as above average and the other grading as below average. He has given up 4 total runs on 12 hits and 3 walks over 10 innings with 8 Ks. This is really too small a sample size for Faudo’s stats to have any meaning. What I can say is that neither start was great, but neither was awful wither. He went 5 innings in both and gave up 2 runs in each, but both starts were at home and the opponents were the A’s and Pirates, two bottom-tier offenses.
Corey Kluber has started 6 games for the Rays with 4 grading as above average and 2 grading as below average. His WHIP is a little on the high sid and his ERA is just plain high. However, while his xERA is a full run higher than his ERA, the rest of his ERA metrics are all about a run lower. Kluber’s wOBA and xwOBA are both below league average, but his K rate is down about 5% lower than his career rate and he’s lost about 3 mph off his FB since his elite days with the Indians. These days I just don’t trust Kluber enough to bet a 1st 5, but I do trust that the Rays are the much better team and I expect they find a way to win this one at home.
Pick – TB ML in a series of parlays.
WASH @ MIA
Starting Pitchers
6:40
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
GB%
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
WASH
|
Sanchez - R
|
(0/4)
|
(4/4)
|
1.42
|
7.58
|
3.96
|
4.74
|
4.11
|
4.31
|
0.350
|
0.334
|
12.2%
|
3.7%
|
51.6%
|
0.323
|
46.2%
|
MIA
|
Alcantara - R
|
(4/7)
|
(3/7)
|
1.22
|
2.74
|
2.97
|
4.07
|
3.99
|
4.21
|
0.303
|
0.293
|
23.7%
|
7.7%
|
48.6%
|
0.266
|
80.6%
|
Edge – MIA big
Bullpens
Team
|
W-L
|
SV/SVO
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
WSN
|
(2-3)
|
(3/6)
|
0.51
|
21
|
1.35
|
24
|
3.90
|
20
|
70.7%
|
17
|
22.8%
|
20
|
9.0%
|
14
|
MIA
|
(3-6)
|
(9/13)
|
0.43
|
10
|
1.24
|
17
|
3.43
|
10
|
74.5%
|
10
|
24.4%
|
11
|
9.6%
|
19
|
Edge – MIA
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
Barrel%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
WSN
|
4.17
|
13
|
0.307
|
16
|
96
|
18
|
-13.8
|
23
|
8.0%
|
19
|
36.7%
|
23
|
6.6%
|
21
|
19.9%
|
3
|
MIA
|
4.15
|
16
|
0.310
|
15
|
103
|
14
|
2.7
|
14
|
8.4%
|
16
|
36.8%
|
22
|
8.4%
|
11
|
24.1%
|
21
|
Edge – MIA
Conclusion: The Marlins seem to have all the edges here. These two offenses are close, but the Marlins appear to have the slightly better wOBA, wRC+, ORAA and walk rate, so I give them a small edge.
As for the two bullpens, that’s not quite as close, since the Marlins’ pen has the better save rate, WHIP, ERA, strand rate and K rate.
That leaves the two starting pitchers and here I give the Marlins a huge edge.
Aaron Sanchez has now started 4 games for the Nats and all 4 graded as below average. He has a high WHIP and very high ERA. Sanchez’s xERA and ERA metrics are all around 2 runs lower than his ERA, but still very mediocre. That’s probably explained by a very low strand rate that almost certainly will improve. His wOBA and xwOBA are both higher than league average \, and Sanchez is missing very few bats, not that he ever did. The best thing that I see in his profile is that he is at least generating a solid GB rate. Unfortunately, that’s not enough to make him a bet-on.
Sandy Alcantara has now started 7 games for the Marlins with 6 grading as above average and three grading as elow average. He has give up 15 runs (13 earned) on 33 hits and 19 walks over 42.2 innings. The walks are obviously a concern as 11 of them came in his 3 below average outings. Despite the walks, Alcantara’s WHIP is still solid and his eRA is very good. His ERA metrics are a little higher than his ERA, but still solid and both his wOBA and xwOBA are below league average. Alcantara;s K rate is not great, but he is generating a close to 50% GB rate and that certainly helps. Alcantara needs to limit his walks. In his last two home starts v the Cards and the Phils, two pretty good offense he held the Cards scoreless for 8 innings and the Phils to 2 runs over 6.1 innings. Alcantara is a bet -on pitcher, as lonmg a he limits the walks.
Pick – MIA 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays.
NYY @ BALT
Starting Pitchers
7:05
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
GB%
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
NYY
|
Severino - R
|
(2/6)
|
(3/6)_
|
1.33
|
4.08
|
3.06
|
3.80
|
3.36
|
3.40
|
0.336
|
0.297
|
25.0%
|
7.3%
|
45.7%
|
0.301
|
73.3%
|
BALT
|
Bradish - R
|
(1/3)
|
(2/3)
|
1.06
|
4.24
|
3.82
|
4.22
|
3.37
|
3.19
|
0.324
|
0.329
|
25.0%
|
4.7%
|
43.2%
|
0.293
|
67.60%
|
Edge – None
Bullpens
Team
|
W-L
|
SV/SVO
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
NYY
|
(15-6)
|
(12/17)
|
0.30
|
1
|
1.15
|
6
|
2.50
|
1
|
79.1%
|
2
|
25.2%
|
9
|
9.8%
|
21
|
BAL
|
(8-11)
|
(7/8)
|
0.43
|
10
|
1.20
|
13
|
3.40
|
9
|
72.1%
|
13
|
22.3%
|
23
|
9.4%
|
17
|
Edge – NYY
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
Barrel%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
NYY
|
4.91
|
4
|
0.329
|
2
|
122
|
1
|
29.6
|
1
|
10.0%
|
5
|
47.2%
|
1
|
12.1%
|
1
|
22.4%
|
14
|
BAL
|
3.26
|
29
|
0.292
|
22
|
93
|
20
|
-8.0
|
20
|
8.0%
|
19
|
40.0%
|
11
|
7.1%
|
18
|
24.5%
|
24
|
Edge – NYY big
Conclusion: The Tanks have several significant edges in this one. First of all, they have the vastly superior offense. The Yanks rank in the top 5 in almost every single offensive category that I look at, the one exception being a 14th ranked K rate. By contrast, the O’s mostly rank in the bottom third.
As for these two bullpens, the Yanks pen is elite, with 15 wins and 12 saves in 17 opportunities. They rank in the top 5 in R/IP, WHIP, ERA and strand rate. The O’s pen is much improved this season and currently ranks as an above average unit, but they’re not in the Yanks class.
As for the two starting pitchers, that looks to me like a wash. Luis Sevarine hasb’t been all that sharp with just 2 of his 5 starts grading as above average and 3 grading as below average. His WHIP is high and his ERA is mediocre, but his ERA metrics are all about a half a run lower than his ERA. The same pattern holds true with his xwOBA which is about 40 points lower than his wOBA.
…to be continued later, weather permitting.