For what it’s worth, The Astros were a huge embarrassment in Game 4 and so were my bets on them and the over. Their hitters choked badly, going a dreadful 0 for 8 with runners in scoring position. I sure as hell did not expect that from what was supposed to be the best offense in baseball. This Braves pitching staff really isn’t that good and that just shouldn’t ever happen.
We have Game 5 from ATL tonight, and it is a “must win” for the Astros. Here’s my writeup and picks for Game 2.
HTN @ ATL
The Braves took Game 1 Tuesday night 5-2, neutralizing any Astros home field edge, The Astros evened the series at one game each with a 7-2 win on Wednesday night. On Friday night in bad weather, the Astros couldn’t hit worth shit and lost 2-0 giving the Braves a 2-1 lead in the series. Last night was more of the same as the Braves squandered way to many scoring opportunities in a 3-2 loss, giving the Braves a huger 3-1 series lead.
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wRAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
HTN
|
5.33
|
1
|
0.336
|
2
|
116
|
1
|
114.7
|
2
|
9.0%
|
11
|
33.2%
|
6
|
19.4%
|
1
|
ATL
|
4.91
|
7
|
0.323
|
9
|
98
|
12
|
39.3
|
10
|
9.1%
|
10
|
33.4%
|
5
|
24.0%
|
22
|
Edge – HTN
Bullpens
Team
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
SV %
|
Rank
|
W/L %
|
Rank
|
HOU
|
0.511
|
17
|
1.30
|
12
|
4.06
|
15
|
72.4%
|
14
|
25.7%
|
7
|
10.4%
|
19
|
55.7%
|
25
|
50.8%
|
22
|
ATL
|
0.480
|
8
|
1.32
|
17
|
3.97
|
10
|
74.0%
|
6
|
23.4%
|
18
|
9.4%
|
11
|
61.5%
|
18
|
48.4%
|
26
|
Edge – None
Starting Pitchers: Framber Valdez (L) v Tucker Davidson (L)
Framber Valdez struggled in his first two playoff starts this postseason, giving up 7 runs (6 earned) on 13 hits (1 HR) and 4 walks over 7 innings, while striking out 8. However, in game 5 of their ALCS series against the Red Sox, with the series tied 2-2, Valdez came up huge, giving up just 1 run on 3 hits (1 HR) and 1 walk over 8 innings, while striking out 5 and generating 14 GBs (2 DPs). However, he sucked in his Game 1 start sgainst these Braves, getting lit up for 5 runs on 8 huts (2 GRs) and a walk over 2 innings, with 2 Ks and 6 GBs. That’s a total of 13 runs (12 earned) on 21 hits and 6 walks over 17 innings, while striking out 15. That comes out to an ugly 1.59 WHIP and 6.88 ERA,
Valdez, who missed all of April and most of May with a fractured left ring finger, started 22 regular season games for the Astros this season, with 17 grading as above average, and just 5 grading as below average. His 1.25 WHIP was decent, and his 3.14 ERA was very good. However, Valdez’s 3.78 xERA and his ERA metrics were all more than a half a run higher than his ERA, but still solid. His .288 wOBA was about 25 points lower than league average and his .298 xwOBA was just slightly higher. Valdez’s 21.9% K rate was not great, but he compensated with an unbelievably high 70.3% GB rate. That’s an amazing number, but his career GB rate is 65.1%, so maybe Valdez is really that good at generating GBs. The only real negative that I see was Valdez’s 10.1% walk rate, which is very high. He walked 58 in just under 135 innings. That’s closing in on a walk every other inning, and when he got into trouble, that was usually why. In his 5 below average starts, Valdez issued 16 free passes.
The Braves will give the ball to rookie. Tucker Davidson who will start Game 5. Davidson, 25-, was the Braves’ 19th-round pick in 2016 but has since become one of their top 10 prospects. He possesses a wicked north-to-south slider. He’s started to come into his own this year, too, posting a 1.17 ERA and a 2.74 xFIP while striking out almost 11 batters per nine in four Triple-A starts. Davidson started 4 games for the Braves this season. Outside of a 2.2 innings, five-run explosion against the Red Sox, he tossed 17.2 innings of 3-run baseball against the Mets, Nats and Phil, back in the spring, and he hasn’t faced an MLB lineup since June 18. The Astros’ hitting skills are unlike anything this kid has ever faced. He’ll also have a quick hook in this game and get pulled at the first sign of trouble.
Conclusion: Offensively, both of these teams came into tjis series loaded, but as good as the Braves were, the Astros were even better during the regular season. The Astros had the best offense in baseball. From top to bottom, the Astros’ lineup was a tough one for any pitcher. They work counts, don't swing at bad pitches, and when you throw strikes, they usually hit them, and they struck out less often than any other team in baseball. When we look at the situational metrics. The Astros usually punish lefties, posting a .338 wOBA (rank #4) and a 117 wRC+ (rank #1). The Braves struggle more against lefties posting a .315 wOBA (rank #20) and just a 93 wRC+ (rank #25), The Astros were also very good on the road with a league leading .335 wOBA and 113 wRC+, which are both better than the Braves .325 wOBA (rank #8) and 99 wRC+ (rank #17) at home. Both teams have continued to hit fairly well in the playoffs, at least until this series, with the Astros averaging 5.57 RPG with a .261 BA and a .779 OPS. That compares to the Braves who are averaging just 3.79 RPG with a .250 BA and a .733 OPS. Neither team has been very clutch is thi series with the Astros going just 4 for 31 with runner in scoring position, and the Brave, just marginally better, going 5 for 27.
As for the bullpens, neither pen was all that good or reliable during the regular season. However, both have performed much better than expected in these playoffs with the Astros giving up 0.41 earned runs per inning pitched with a 1.21 WHIP and 3.72 ERA. By contrast, the Braves are giving up a lower 0.36 earned runs per inning pitched, with a y lower 1.04 WHIP, and a lower 3.27 ERA.
That brings us to the starting pitchers and I’m not sure how much of an edge, if any, I should give the Astros. Three of Valdez’s 4 playoff starts were lousy and one was great, but he is at least experienced and capable. The only question is which Valdez we get tonight? Davidson is a complete unknown with just 4 MLB starts under his belt and none since May.
With the loss of Charlie Morton in Game 1, the Braves are suddenly without one of their top two starting pitchers and are probably looking at another bullpen games tonight, but how much becomes too much for the Braves pen? The Astros lost their top starting pitcher, Lance McCullers Jr earlier in the playoffs leaving them with just the three legitimate starters, and Zack Greinke who has struggled down the stretch, but gave them 5 scoreless innings last night.
I’m going right back to the same two wells in this game. This is a “must win” game for the Astros. Despite being down 3-1, I still think that they are actually the better team here, mostly because the numbers all say that they should have the better offense, both overall and situationally. However, so far in this series it hasn’t worked out that way. The Astros scored 2, 7, 0, and 2 runs, while the Braves scored 6, 2, 2, and 3. I have no logical explanation fon for this, nor can I give you a solid reason why that changes tonight, but I think that it does. I still expect the Astros offense to snap out of their funk and beat the crap out of the Braves and it better be tonight. I don’t know if they can do it for three straight games, but I do expect them to do it tonight. They’re just too damned good not to.
Tonight, I am again also playing over the total of 8.5. Regardless of what happened in the first four games of this series, these are still two very good offenses, with two heavily used bullpens that are pitching way over their heads, and two starting pitchers that I don’t trust. As for the weather forecast, it is expected to remain chilly and breezy tonight with temperatures in the -50s and dry will very light wind.
Pick – HTN ML (-116 for 2 unit) and Over 8.5 (-105 for 2 units)