For what it’s worth, we only had one game last night, but it was a huge one, Game 5 of the NLDS series between the Dodgers and the Giants. The two best teams in baseball met in one final winner-take-all game. I really did not know who would win this game, but I felt strongly that the game would be very low scoring, especially early on, so I made one bet on the 1st 5 to stay under 3.5. The Dodgers got a scoreless 1st inning from Corey Knebel, a scoreless 2nd from Brusdar Graterol and three scoreless innings from Julio Urias. The Giants got 5 scoreless innings from Logan Webb and my 1st 5 under cashed easily. That left me +1.72 units for the day and +60.27 units for the season.
The only thing that bothered me about this game was the 1st base umpire’s call on that check-swing strikeout that ended the game. This was a great game and it should never have ended on that kind of call. With a runner aboard, Max Scherzer apparently struck out Wikmer Flores on a check-swing for the final out (or did he?). Plate umpire Doug Eddings checked with first base ump Gabe Morales, who ruled Flores swung, but on television replays, it certainly appeared the Flores had indeed held up. Morales told a pool reporter that "I don't have the benefit of multiple camera angles when I'm watching it live. When it happened live, I thought he went, so that's why I called it a swing." Allow me to translate – At the time I thought that I made the right call, but after seeing the replay I think that I might have gotten it wrong and blown the call. Oops! Sorry! Even some of the Dodgers wouldn’t go so far as to say that it was the right call. Cody Bellinger, who drove in the winning run said “the umpire said it was a swing, so it was a swing". How's that for logic? Again, allow me to translate - I don’t want to talk about whether the call was right. The ump made the call and it went our way. Let’s focus on my game winning hit and not the ump’s call.
It's a damned shame that such a great series had to end on such a really questionable call. If that ump wasn’t absolutely, positively sure, he should not have made the call. Let the players decide the outcome, not the umps.
We have just one game tonight, Game 1 of the ALCS between the Red Sox and the Astros.
BOS @ HTN
The Red Sox got here by clinching the top AL wild card spot in the final weekend of the season. They then took out the Yankees in the wild card game and went on to upset the defending AL Cham pion Rays, by winning three straight after dropping the first game of that series.
The Astros got here by winning the AL West by 5 games. They then disposed of the AL Central Champion White Sox 3 games to one to advance to th ALCS.
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wRAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BOS
|
5.12
|
4
|
0.333
|
3
|
107
|
6
|
93.1
|
3
|
8.4%
|
19
|
33.2%
|
6
|
22.6%
|
9
|
HTN
|
5.33
|
1
|
0.336
|
2
|
116
|
1
|
114.7
|
2
|
9.0%
|
11
|
33.2%
|
6
|
19.4%
|
1
|
Edge – HTN
Bullpens
Team
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
SV %
|
Rank
|
W/L %
|
Rank
|
BOS
|
0.516
|
18
|
1.39
|
22
|
3.99
|
13
|
72.7%
|
10
|
25.6%
|
8
|
10.8%
|
24
|
66.2%
|
7
|
64.6%
|
4
|
HOU
|
0.511
|
17
|
1.30
|
12
|
4.06
|
15
|
72.4%
|
14
|
25.7%
|
7
|
10.4%
|
19
|
55.7%
|
25
|
50.8%
|
22
|
Edge – None
Starting Pitchers: Chris Sale (L) v Framber Valdez (R)
Chris Sale finally returned from the IL on August 14 and started 9 regular season games for the Red Sox, with 6 grading as above average and just 3 grading as below average. In those 9 starts, Sale gave up a total of 19 runs (15 earned) on 45 hits (6 HRS) and 12 walks over 42.2 innings, while striking out 52. That left him with a mediocre 1.34 WHIP, but a good 3.16 ERA. However, Sale’s 3.49 xERA and ERA metrics, while still good, were still about a third of a run higher than his ERA. Strangely, that pattern doesn’t hold up when we look at Sale’s .287 xWOBA, which was almost 40 points lower than his .326 wOBA. Sale’s 28.4% K rate, while still very good, was more than 2% lower than his 30.6% career rate, and his 6.6% walk rate was also good. The one thing that really stands out is that Sale averaged just over 4.1 innings per start this season as compared to 6 innings per start back in 2019, before the TJ surgery. Sale did not face the Astros his season. Sale did make one postseason start in the Red Sox ALDS series against the Rays and it was ugly. He lasted just 1 inning, giving up 5 1st inning runs on 4 hits and 1 walk. With the exception of that start against the Ryas, Sale hasn’t been all that bad, but he obviously hasn’t as good as the Chris Sale that we’re used to seeing and we may not see that Sale again until next season, if ever.
Framber Valdez, who missed all of April and most of May with a fractured left ring finger, started 22 regular season games for the Astros this season, with 17 grading as above average, and just 5 grading as below average. His 1.25 WHIP was decent, but his 3.14 ERA was very good. Valdez’s 3.78 xERA and his ERA metrics were all more than a half a run higher than his ERA, but still solid. His .288 wOBA was about 25 points lower than league average and his .298 xwOBA was just slightly higher. Valdez’s 21.9% K rate was not great, but he compensated with an unbelievably high 70.3% GB rate. That is an amazing number, but his career GB rate is 65.1%, so maybe it was that Valdez is simply a lot better at generating GBs than most pitchers. The only e negative that I see was Valdez’s 10.1% walk rate, which is very high. He walked 58 in just under 135 innings. That’s closing in on a walk every other inning, and when he got into trouble, that was usually why. In his 5 below average starts Valdez issued 16 free passes. Valedz faced the Red Sox twice in early June this season and both starts graded as above average, as he gave up just 2 runs on 10 hits and 2 walks over 14.1 innings, while striking out 18. That comes out to a stellar 0.84 WHIP and 1.26 ERA in those 2 starts. However, in his one postseason start against the White Sox in the ALDS, he also struggled,giving up 4 runs on 7 hits over 4.1 innings, while striking out 6.
Conclusion: Offensively, both of these teams are loaded, but as good as the Red Sox are, the Astros are even better. The have arguably the best offense in baseball. Both teams also hit lefties well, but while the Red Sox posted a .326 WOBA (rank #6) and a 102 wRC+ (ranks #10), the Astros posted an even better .338 wOBA (ranks #4) and a 117 wRC+ (rank #1).
As for the bullpens, neither pen is all that good or reliable, but while the Astros pen has been suspect all season long, the Red Sox pen just fell apart during the second half of the season. That why manager Alex Cora was forced to use his starting pitchers out of the bullpen during the Red Sox stretch run and ALDS series upset of the Rays. I would expect more of the same in this series.
That brings us to the pitchers and while there’s a lot to like about both Chris Sale and Framber Valdez, Valdez had the better season. Sale is still recovering from TJ surgery last March and simply hasn’t been as effective since returning and that’s understandable. Recovery from that type of surgery can take one to two years and is not guaranteed.
Both offenses are potent and dangerous, but the Astros offense is the better of the two. Neither bullpen can be counted on and while both starting pitchers are good, Valdez has had the better season, but the walks are always a concern and against a team that hits as well as the Red Sox, that could cost him dearly. As for Sale, he’ still recovering from TJ surgery, and even if he pitches well, and that’s not guaranteed, he probably won’t good deep and that means too many innings from a less than stellar Red Sox pens. I don’t have a strong enough feel for either side to put money on it, but I think we see runs scored in this one.
Pick – Over 8.5 (-114 for 2 units)