For what it’s worth, yesterday was a miserable day for me. I used three teams, the Giants, Yankees, and Astros on my parlay card, playing both 1st 5 and full game MLs on all of them. The only winner was the Astros and when you only use only three teams, 1-2 is no better than 0-3, maybe even worse psychologically.
I don’t mind losing. It happens. It comes with the turf. However, I hate losing because of stupidity. The f***ing Yankees should have won last night. They led 2-1 going into the bottom of the 9th. With one out, reliever Clay Holmes gives up a single and then uncorks a wild pitch, moving the runner to 2nd. A ground out moves the runner to 3rd, and then Holmes uncorks another wild pitch allowing the tying run to score! What an idiot! Why is Clay Holmes still on the roster this morning? They should have tossed that worthless piece of shit off the GW Bridge after the game last night! The Yanks begin the top of the 10th win a man on 2nd, but rather than sacrifice him to 3rd and maybe manufacture a run, Boone lets Aaron judge hit a away and he does one of the worst things he can possibly do in that situation. He grounds out to 3rd insuring that the runner can’t advance. Rizzo flies out and Torres lines out to end the inning. In comes the eminently hittable Wandy Peralta to pitch the bottom of the 10th. . Why would you possibly bring in a guy with a lifetime 1.48 WHIP and 4.52 ERA, when your team is tied with two other teams in a heated battle for one of two wild card spots and desperately needs this game. The O’s use a bunt sacrifice to move the runner to 3rd and he eventually scores the winning run. They Yankees lose another game that they should have won. I really hope that this team doesn’t make the playoffs. They don’t deserve to, and just maybe they’ll finally throw Boone off the GW bridge along with Holmes. He is a piss-poor excuse for a manager.
As you can see, my day sucked. I lost 24 units, leaving me +30.42 units for the month of September, and +55.28 units for the season. Unrelated, I also lost with the WASH Football Team -3. It was one of those days.
Today we have a full card, but I only like five teams 1st 5 and full games, the Blue Jays, the Dodgers, the Phils (1st 5 only) the Red Sox (1st 5 only)and the Giants. Despite getting my head handed to me yesterday, I’m going the parlay route again tonight. Hopefully, it doesn’t happen again. Here is the card.
ML Parlays
|
Team #1
|
Team 2
|
Odds
|
Units
|
|
TOR 1st 5
|
LAD 1st 5
|
155
|
2
|
|
TOR 1st 5
|
LAD full gane
|
146
|
2
|
|
TOR 1st 5
|
PHIL 1st 5
|
160
|
2
|
|
TOR 1st 5
|
SF 1st 5
|
151
|
2
|
|
TOR 1st 5
|
SF full game
|
152
|
2
|
|
TOR full game
|
LAD 1st 5
|
144
|
2
|
|
TOR full game
|
LAD full gane
|
135
|
2
|
|
TOR full game
|
PHIL 1st 5
|
149
|
2
|
|
TOR full game
|
SF 1st 5
|
141
|
2
|
|
TOR full game
|
SF full game
|
142
|
2
|
|
LAD 1st 5
|
PHIL 1st 5
|
176
|
2
|
|
LAD 1st 5
|
SF 1st 5
|
166
|
2
|
|
LAD 1st 5
|
SF full game
|
168
|
2
|
|
LAD full gane
|
PHIL 1st 5
|
166
|
2
|
|
LAD full gane
|
SF 1st 5
|
157
|
2
|
|
LAD full gane
|
SF full game
|
158
|
2
|
|
PHIL 1st 5
|
SF 1st 5
|
172
|
2
|
|
PHIL 1st 5
|
SF full game
|
173
|
2
|
|
BOS 1st 5 |
TOR 1st 5 |
104 |
2 |
|
BOS 1st 5 |
TOR ML |
-105 |
2 |
|
BOS 1st 5 |
LAD 1st 5 |
116 |
2 |
|
BOS 1st 5 |
LAD ML |
108 |
2 |
|
BOS 1st 5 |
PHIL 1st 5 |
120 |
2 |
|
BOS 1st 5 |
SF 1st 5 |
113 |
2 |
|
BOS 1st 5 |
SF ML |
114 |
2 |
MINN @ TOR
Starting Pitchers: Michael Pineda (R) v Hyun-Jin Ryu (L)
The Blue Jays, are fighting for an AL wild card spot. They are tied with the Red Sox at the top of the standings, but with the Ynks just a half a game behind them. The Twins are just playing out the string.
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wRAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
MIN
|
4.49
|
14
|
0.318
|
11
|
101
|
9
|
19.2
|
11
|
8.9%
|
13
|
33.8%
|
2
|
23.0%
|
11
|
TOR
|
5.28
|
3
|
0.337
|
1
|
112
|
2
|
96.1
|
1
|
8.2%
|
20
|
33.1%
|
6
|
20.6%
|
2
|
Edge – TOR
Bullpens
Team
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
SV %
|
Rank
|
W %
|
Rank
|
MIN
|
0.574
|
23
|
1.32
|
15
|
4.56
|
22
|
69.2%
|
24
|
23.5%
|
18
|
9.3%
|
10
|
64.8%
|
10
|
46.4%
|
14
|
TOR
|
0.503
|
13
|
1.28
|
10
|
4.02
|
12
|
72.3%
|
10
|
24.9%
|
13
|
9.8%
|
13
|
60.5%
|
19
|
51.9%
|
6
|
Edge - TOR
Starting Pitchers
Injuries have limited Michael Pineda to just 18 games for the Twins this season. with 11 grading as above average, and 7 grading as below average. His 1,22 WHIP and 3.87 ERA are both solid, but his 4.82 xERA is almost a full run higher than his ERA, whihe his ERA metrics are all around a half a run higher. His .332 xwOBA is also higher than his .318 wOBA and both are slightly higher than league average. Pineda’s 20.4% K rate is mediocre, but his 4.7% walk rate is very low and that’s certainly helped him. The metrics seem to all be saying that Pinenda has not pitched quite as well as his superficial numbers indicate. The total package looks mediocre.
Hyun-Jin Ryu really hasn’t been himself this season. He has started 28 games for the Blue Jays this season, with 10 grading as above average, and 9 grading as below average. Ryu’s 1.19 WHIP remains good, but his 4.11 ERA is mediocre and almost a full run higher than his career ERA. Ryu’s 4,32 xERA is even higher than his ERA, but his ERA metrics are mostly a little lower. Ryu’s .304 wOBA is still a little lower than league average, and his .316 xwOBA is not that much higher. Ryu’s numbers are still solid, but there are some real concerns. Ryu’s FB velocity is down more than 1% from what it was in 2019. His 20.3% K rate is down about 6% from last season, and almost 2% lower than his career rate. Ryu is still generating a solid 46.9% GB rate and a good 5.3% walk rate. Ryu still throws a near 90-mph FB and a good change, along with a decent cutter, curve, and sinker, and he still pounds the strike zone with all of them, so he doesn’t create problems for himself. He makes hitters earn everything that they get, but he just hasn’t been as consistent as he used to be with just a 6 to 4 ratio of above average to below average starts, including 3 in which he gave up 7 runs. Over those 10 starts Ryu has a very mediocre 1.31 WHIP and very high 5.71 ERA. He’s no longer an automatic bet on.
The Blue Jays have the better of two potent offenses. Although I don’t really like or trust the Jays bullpen , it is still better than the Twins wretched pen. As for the two starting pitchers, Ryu’s been very inconsistent this season, but he’s still been better than Pineda. If Ryu happens to be on, he will shut down the Twins, and if he’s not this game becomes a slugfest and I still have the better of two good offenses and the better of two shaky bullpens
Pick – TOR 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays
LAD @ CIN
Starting Pitchers: Walker Buehler (R) v Luis Castillo (R)
The Dodgers are now just 1 game behind the Giants in the wild NL West division race. The Reds are still just 1 game out in the equally wind NL wild card race, after a much needed 1-0 win over the pesky Piratesbehind a strong outing by Tyler Nahle.
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wRAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
LAD
|
5.03
|
4
|
0.324
|
8
|
105
|
7
|
41.4
|
8
|
9.9%
|
3
|
35.2%
|
1
|
23.1%
|
12
|
CIN
|
4.87
|
9
|
0.328
|
4
|
101
|
9
|
58.9
|
4
|
9.0%
|
10
|
33.4%
|
3
|
23.5%
|
17
|
Edge – LAD close
Bullpens
Team
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
SV %
|
Rank
|
W %
|
Rank
|
CIN
|
0.635
|
28
|
1.43
|
27
|
5.19
|
28
|
68.0%
|
27
|
26.3%
|
4
|
11.8%
|
29
|
61.3%
|
18
|
46.7%
|
13
|
LAD
|
0.439
|
4
|
1.21
|
4
|
3.18
|
3
|
73.2%
|
6
|
25.3%
|
11
|
10.6%
|
21
|
62.9%
|
13
|
43.3%
|
19
|
Edge - LAD
Starting Pitchers
Walker Buehler has started 29 games for the Dodgers this season, with 23 grading as above average, including 11 of his last 12, 1 grading as average, and just 5 grading as below average. He has given up more than 3 runs just four times all season. His 0.95 WHIP and 2.32 ERA are both superb and his 3.10 xERA ERA metrics, while all higher than his ERA, are all still very good. That discrepancy can be traced to Buehler’s low .239 BABIP, which is about 20 points lower than his already low career rate. His 26% K rate is down about 2.5% from last season, and it is accompanied by a solid 6.5% walk rate that is also down about 1% from las seasont. Buehler’s decreased K rate was a concern early on, but it appears that he has made some adjustments and is now willing to accept a few less Ks, for better command. That’s apparently the case as evidenced by his excellent 189/47 K/BB ratio. With Jacob deFrom apparently done for the season, you have to consider Buehler to be a leading candidate for the NL Cy Young award.
Luis Castillo really struggled early on this season, and his full season numbers reflect that bad start. While only 17 of his30 starts graded as above average, with 1 grading as average, and 12 grading as below average, Castillo has reeled off 16 above average starts in his last 19 outings. Over that span he has given up just 41 runs (38 earned) on 84 hits and 38 walks over 117.2 innings, while striking out 123. That’s comes out to a 1.09 WHIP and a 2.91 ERA over those 19 starts. In addition to a solid 23.5% K rate, Castillo is also generating an excellent 55.7% GB rate. However, his 9.2% walk rate is high, which is why his overall 1.36 WHIP and 4.24 ERA aren’t better, but his 3.67 xERA is more than a half a run lower, as are his ERA metrics. The same pattern applies to Castillo’s .293 xwOBA which is 27 points lower than his ,320 wOBA. After a really rocky start, Castillo has been very good since.
Offensively, this is actually close. The Reds hit much better at Great American scoring 1.24 more runs per game, but the Dodgers could well find Great American to their liking as well. As for the two bullpens, I don’t fully trust the Dodgers pen, but compared to the garbage in the Reds pen, it looks elite. As for the two starting pitchers, I’m pretty sure than Buehler will pitch well, bit Castillo’s is perfectly capable of doing so as well. I give Buehler the edge, but it is close. One other factor is that the Reds desperately need this game, so based on their performance so far this season, they’ll probably find a way to lose it.
Pick LAD 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays
PHIL @ NYM
Starting Pitchers: Zack Wheeler (R) v Tajuan Walker (R)
Th Phils are still very much alive in the NL playoff race. They trail the Braves by 3 games in the NL East and are just 2.5 games out in the L wild card race. The Mets look like they’re just about done. They are now 5.5 games out in the NL East and 5 games out in the NL wild card, with just 15 games left.
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wRAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
PHI
|
4.55
|
12
|
0.314
|
12
|
95
|
16
|
-2.1
|
15
|
9.4%
|
7
|
31.3%
|
23
|
23.1%
|
12
|
NYM
|
3.98
|
27
|
0.307
|
20
|
95
|
16
|
-30.7
|
21
|
8.4%
|
18
|
31.6%
|
21
|
23.6%
|
18
|
Edge – PHIL
Bullpens
Team
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
SV %
|
Rank
|
W %
|
Rank
|
PHI
|
0.577
|
24
|
1.39
|
23
|
4.55
|
21
|
70.7%
|
19
|
24.1%
|
14
|
9.8%
|
13
|
52.5%
|
27
|
38.3%
|
25
|
NYM
|
0.477
|
8
|
1.30
|
12
|
3.86
|
9
|
74.8%
|
4
|
25.8%
|
8
|
9.8%
|
13
|
62.7%
|
14
|
35.4%
|
28
|
Edge - NYM
Starting Pitchers
Zack Wheeler is having a great season and has put up some excellent numbers. He has started 29 games for the Phils with 21 above average outings, including his last 2 and just 8 below average ones. Wheeler sports a great 1.02 WHIP and 2.86 ERA. His 2.78 xERA and ERA metrics are mostly consistent with his ERA, and his .251 wOBA and .256 xWOBA are almost identical and both around 60 points lower than league average. Wheeler also has an excellent 28.9% K rate, and combines it with a very good 49.8% GB rate and a low 5.4% walk rate.
Tajuan Walker has started 26 games fot the Mets this season, with 15 of them grading as above average and 11 grading as below average, including his last 2. That’s left him with a solid 1.19 WHIP, but a mediocre 4.29 ERA. However, Walker’s 4.47 xERA and ERA metrics are all a little higher than his ERA. That discrepancy is probably due to Walker’s low .258 BABIP that is still about 20 points lower than his career average. As that normalizes, I would expect Walker’s ERA to rise a little, closer to where his metrics say it should be. Another factor is his relatively high 8.4% walk rate. His 22.9% K rate is OK, but the walks are a legitimate concern. Walker has walked 50 in just under 144 innings. So far that hasn’t hurt him too much, but down the road, it could. Walker has always shown flashes, but has never been able to put it all together on a consistent basis. He got off to a hell of a fine start this season, but over his last 10 starts, he has been less than stellar, giving up 43 runs (41 earned) on 52 hits and 20 walks over 49 innings. That comes out to a high 1.47 WHIP and very high 7.53 ERA over that span.
The Phils have a couple of edges in this game. The first in a much better offense than the weak hitting Mets, and the second is the much better starting pitcher. Zack Wheeler’s been near elite all season and Walker has struggled a lot more as the season has progressed. However, I want no part of the crappy Phils pen, so I’ll confine this to a 1st 5 only.
Pick – PHIL 1st 5 ML in a series of parlays.
LAST MINUTE ADDITION
BOS @ BALT
Starting PitchersL Chris Sale (L) v Keegan Aiken (L)
Bo Time doe write-up. This is Chris Sale v Keefgan Aiken - a hugemismatch
Pick - MOS 1st 5 ML in a series of parlays
I'll be back with the late game breakdown later.