SEA @ TEX
Starting Pitchers
7:05
|
SP 2021
|
GS
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
SEA
|
T Anderson - L
|
50
|
(9/18)
|
(9/18)
|
1.20
|
4.35
|
4.30
|
4.26
|
4.41
|
4.43
|
0.309
|
0.318
|
20.0%
|
5.8%
|
TEX
|
Hearn - L
|
39
|
(1/2)
|
(1/2)
|
1.37
|
4.41
|
4.71
|
4.97
|
4.37
|
4.18
|
0.316
|
0.331
|
25.1%
|
11.8%
|
Edge – SEA
Bullpens
Team
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
SV
|
BS
|
W
|
L
|
SEA
|
0.484
|
10
|
1.46
|
27
|
3.96
|
12
|
69.2%
|
22
|
23.0%
|
24
|
10.9%
|
21
|
29
|
17
|
27
|
14
|
TEX
|
0.556
|
21
|
1.52
|
29
|
4.50
|
20
|
68.9%
|
25
|
22.4%
|
26
|
11.6%
|
27
|
18
|
12
|
16
|
22
|
Edge – SEA
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
HC%
|
Rank
|
SEA
|
4.19
|
21
|
0.296
|
28
|
91
|
21
|
-40.4
|
21
|
8.7%
|
17
|
26.5%
|
30
|
30.7%
|
24
|
TEX
|
3.83
|
29
|
0.293
|
30
|
85
|
28
|
-72.3
|
29
|
8.2%
|
21
|
24.2%
|
20
|
32.0%
|
15
|
Edge – SEA
Conclusion: The Mariners jumped on the Ranggers early last night rolling to an 8-5 win and are now an amazing 8 games over .500 for the season. I still don’t know how in the hell they are doing it, but they are still only 8 games behind the Astros in the AL West. They won’t catch the Astros, but they are still in contention for a wild card spot. The Rangers sit squarely at the bottom of the AL West and are going nowhere fast, now 31 games below .500 and 27.5 games behind the Astros. Just when we didn’t think that it could get much worse, they traded the best starting pitcher, their closer and their best hitter.
Offensively, the Mariners aren’t very good, but the Rangers are much worse. The Pirates may be the only offense worse than the Rangers, and with Gallo now in pinstripes the Ranger might even be worse than the Pirates. .
As for the two bullpens, The Mariners have a decent one, and that’s more than I can say about the Rangers crappy pen, that got even worse with the trade of closer Ian Kennedy.
That leaves the two starting pitchers, and I give the edge to the Mariners with newly acquired Tyler Anderson v Taylor Hearn.
Anderson started 18 games for the Pirates this season, with 9 above average starts and 9 below average ones. His WHIP is solid, but his ERA is mediocre, and his ERA metrics are all consistent with that ERA. Anderson’s wOBA is a little lower than league averave and his expected wOBA is just a little higher than his actual one. Anderson’s K rate is pedestrian, but his walk rate is fairly low. By trading for him, the Mariners gave Anderson a get out of jail (PITT) card. He should benefit from pitching for a better team that’s actually playing for something.
Hearn has spent most of the season in the Rangers pen. He’s started just 2 games for the Rangers with 1 grading as above average and 1 grading as below average, but even in his above average start, while he didn’t give up anything, he only went 3 innings. In his other start, he gave up 2 runs on 4 hits and 3 walks in just 0.2 innings. Hearn has a mediocre WHIP, ERA and ERA metrics. His wOBA is right around league average, while his expected wOBA is a little higher. Hearns has a solid K rate, but 25 walks in 49 innings is a lot.
Anderson has the better numbers and they are based on a much bigger sample size, but even if we called the starting pitchers even, Hearn probably won’t go long and the bullpen and offensive edges all belong to the Mariners. The Rangers might now be the worst team in the league.
Pick – SEA ML (-130 for 2 units)
CLEV @ CHI WS
Starting Pitchers
7:10
|
SP 2021
|
GS
|
50+ GS
|
50- GS
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
CLEV
|
McKenzie - R
|
46
|
(5/14)
|
(7/13)
|
1.42
|
5.61
|
4.61
|
5.15
|
4.81
|
4.69
|
0.318
|
0.326
|
29.8%
|
16.3%
|
CHI WS
|
Keuchel - L
|
48
|
(9/19)
|
(8/18)
|
1.36
|
4.32
|
5.78
|
4.99
|
4.46
|
4.74
|
0.331
|
0.362
|
14.4%
|
7.3%
|
Edge – CHI WS
Bullpens
Team
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
SV
|
BS
|
W
|
L
|
CLEV
|
0.445
|
5
|
1.27
|
9
|
3.58
|
7
|
76.8%
|
3
|
25.1%
|
11
|
10.5%
|
18
|
26
|
12
|
22
|
17
|
CHI WS
|
0.509
|
14
|
1.29
|
11
|
4.12
|
15
|
73.0%
|
9
|
27.7%
|
3
|
10.6%
|
19
|
28
|
16
|
19
|
16
|
Edge – CLEV
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
HC%
|
Rank
|
CLEV
|
4.28
|
19
|
0.299
|
26
|
86
|
27
|
-55.9
|
26
|
7.7%
|
26
|
23.8%
|
17
|
31.7%
|
20
|
CHI WS
|
4.94
|
5
|
0.327
|
6
|
110
|
3
|
49.3
|
2
|
10.0%
|
6
|
23.4%
|
15
|
31.8%
|
19
|
Edge – CHI WS
Conclusion: The White Sox took the first games of this series last night 6-4. The Indians now trail the White Sox by 9 games in the AL Central and any chance of catching the White Sox got even slimmer.
The White Sox have the much better offense, but, despite the White sox acquisition of Craig Kimbtrrel, I still give the bullpen edge to the Indians.
That leaves the two starting pitchers.
Triston McKenzie has now started 14 games for the Indians, with just 5 grading as above average,2 that graded as average, and 7 that graded as below average. McKenzie has some talent, but his WHIP and ERA are both very high. His ERA metrics, despite all being lower than his ERA, are all still high. McKenzie’s low .244 BABIP is certain a factor there, but a bigger factor is his ridiculously high walk rate. McKenzie is generating Ks at an elite rate, but 42 walks on just over 59 innings is way too many and just begging for trouble.
Dallas Keuchel has struggled a lot more than usual this season. He has started 19 games for the White Sox with 9 that graded as above average, 2 that graded as average and 8 that graded as below average. His WHIP and ERA are both mediocre and his expected ERA says that his ERA should be even higher than it is. All of Keuchel’s ERA metrics are also higher than his mediocre ERA. The same pattern holds true for Keuchel’s wOBA, which is already higher than league average, but his expected wOBA is about 20 points higher than his actual one. Keuchel has never missed a lot of bats, so his poor K rate is not all that surprising, and he does generate an impressive 54.5% GB rate and doesn’t walk an excessive number of batters. Still, that’s not a profile that I’m usually anxious to on.
However in this case, I’m doing just that. When I look at these two pitchers, what really sticks out in McKenzie’s truly ugly walk rate. He just puts too many men on base (84 in just over 59 innings) and with the White Sox potent offense, too many of those baserunners should score.
Picjk – CHI WS 1st 5 ML (-123 for 2 units)
MIL @ ATL
Starting Pitchers
7:20
|
SP 2021
|
GS
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
MIL
|
Woodruff - R
|
66
|
(18/20)
|
(2/20)
|
0.84
|
2.14
|
2.75
|
2.60
|
2.95
|
3.23
|
0.220
|
0.257
|
30.4%
|
6.4%
|
ATL
|
Muller - L
|
58
|
(4/5)
|
(1/5)
|
1.14
|
2.55
|
3.40
|
3.16
|
4.80
|
4.56
|
0.246
|
0.285
|
25.7%
|
12.9%
|
Edge – MIL
Bullpens
Team
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
SV
|
BS
|
W
|
L
|
MIL
|
0.456
|
7
|
1.26
|
8
|
3.60
|
8
|
78.1%
|
2
|
20.4%
|
29
|
8.9%
|
6
|
25
|
19
|
28
|
13
|
ATL
|
0.550
|
20
|
1.23
|
6
|
4.49
|
19
|
70.5%
|
17
|
23.9%
|
16
|
8.5%
|
4
|
21
|
15
|
12
|
23
|
Edge – MIL
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
HC%
|
Rank
|
MIL
|
4.53
|
13
|
0.307
|
19
|
90
|
22
|
-40.9
|
22
|
10.2%
|
3
|
25.7%
|
25
|
33.4%
|
3
|
ATL
|
4.75
|
11
|
0.323
|
10
|
99
|
14
|
2.9
|
12
|
9.6%
|
8
|
24.5%
|
22
|
33.1%
|
4
|
Edge – ATL
Conclusion: The Brewers spotted the Braves a 4-0 lead early last night before roaring back in an impressive 9-5 win. The Brewers now lead the NL Central by 7 games over the Reds, while the Braves now only trail the Mets by 4 games in the NL East.
On paper the Braves have the better offense, but it’s a lot closer than I would have expected, and last night it was the Brewers who exploded for 9 runs.
As for the two bullpens, that’s also closer than I expected, but the Brewers pen gets the edge.
As for the two starting pitchers, while they are both pitching well, I’m giving a clear edge to the Brewers.
Woodruff is elite. Out of his 20 starts, 18 have graded as above average, while just 2 graded as below average, his first start of the season, against the Twins, and one at Coors. Other than those two, Woodruff’s been great! Woodruff’s WHIP and ERA are both superb, and while his ERA metrics are all a little higher than his miniscule ERA, they are all really good, and the same holds true for incredibly low wOBA as compared to his expected wOBA, which is almost 40 points higher than his actual wOBA, but still almost 70 points lower than the league average. Has Woodruff been the beneficiary of some good luck? Ablsolutely. That’s born out by his low .227 BABIP, which is close to 60 points lower than his career average, but even with some regression likely, Woodruff is still having one hell of a fine season. He also sports an elite K rate, a low walk rate and a 45.8% GR rate. There’s nothing phony about how well Woodruff is pitching. It’s Cy Young caliber.
Kyle Muller has only started just 5 games, so we still have a very small sample size. However, but 4 of them graded as above average, while just 1 graded as below average. In those44 starts, Muller has only given up 5 runs on 11 hits and 13 walks over 23.2 innings, while striking out 25. His WHIP and ERA are both good despite the walks, and his expected ERA and FIP are both consistent with his fine ERA. Muller’s wOBA is excellent, but his expected wOBA is about 40 points higher than his actual one , but still lower than league average. His K rate is fine, but his walk rate is high.
Muller has pitched well, but he’s not in Woodruff’s class. Woodruff is having a Cy Young worthy season. I’ll put my money on the guy, who put up the better numbers over 20 games rather than the guy who put up good numbers over 5.
Pick – MIL 1st 5 RL (-103 for 2 units)