As always I preface this by saying I'm a very "boring" capper that plays more against Vegas and less on teams per se, as betting in a team agnostic world is what I find to the most lucrative nature. Sure I utilize a TON of analytics and the whatnot...but sometimes paralysis by analysis only keeps you from winning wagers...
Since 2018 in AL games with a home dog, both teams over .500 ->
134 Overs, 134 Unders, average Vegas total 8.7
average final score 5.34-3.94
road chalk winning >60%, neither team even averages scoring in 3 separate innings,
neither team even averages 2 extra base hits per contest!
Make 1 single, simple, small adjustment to the trend...totals 10 or higher...and the same period of time ->
32 Overs, 11 Unders (74.4% Over), average Vegas total 10.6,
average final score 7.14-6.79
both teams average scoring in MORE than 3 innings
both teams average MORE than 2 extra base hits
ROI- +42% - then toss in non-divisional game and it ticks up every so slightly to 12-4 Over
Then take into account for the game we have Tony Randazzo, and ADI south of 60, Rasmussen v. Mejia, a VMI of +4 or better for each lineup and we likely have what some would call a BET OF THE "WHATEVER YOU WANNA CALL IT" with Rays @ Guardians Over 10