Damn,
When the Padres took a 5-4 lead in the top of the 4th, I expected them to hold it for at least an inning. They didn't. Snell wasn;t good...agqin and the bullpen's looked awful in this series.
Here are my write-ups on my early evening games.
NYY @ TOR
Starting Pitchers
7:07
|
SP 2021
|
|
GS +50
|
GS -50
|
GS
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
NYY
|
Cole - R
|
|
(11/13)
|
(2/13)
|
66
|
0.87
|
2.31
|
2.37
|
2.11
|
2.37
|
2.35
|
0.242
|
,246
|
12.45
|
1.21
|
TOR
|
Stripling - R
|
|
(4/9)
|
(5/9)
|
43
|
1.38
|
4.91
|
4.86
|
4.57
|
4.35
|
3.98
|
0.353
|
0.345
|
9.25
|
2.64
|
Edge – NYY big
Bullpens
Team
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
SV
|
BS
|
W
|
L
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
NYY
|
0.43
|
5
|
1.11
|
2
|
3.20
|
4
|
72.5%
|
11
|
2.8
|
4
|
16
|
6
|
14
|
12
|
25.6%
|
9
|
8.8%
|
8
|
TOR
|
0.47
|
7
|
1.28
|
11
|
3.72
|
9
|
73.1%
|
9
|
0.8
|
19
|
11
|
8
|
14
|
14
|
25.0%
|
13
|
11.2%
|
23
|
Edge – NYY
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
NYY
|
3.88
|
26
|
0.309
|
14
|
97
|
15
|
-21.8
|
19
|
0.152
|
19
|
-13.1
|
30
|
10.3%
|
3
|
24.7%
|
20
|
TOR
|
5.03
|
4
|
0.335
|
2
|
111
|
3
|
31.5
|
4
|
0.188
|
3
|
-1.8
|
22
|
7.9%
|
26
|
22.4%
|
5
|
Edge – TOR
Conclusion: The Yanks came back from down 5-2 to edge the Jays 6-5 last night.
Offensively, this looks like a mismatch, but it looked that way yesterday as well. The Jays have a top 5 offense, while the Yanks continue to struggle more than anyone expected, but they found a way last night..
Both team have above average bullpens, but the Yanks pen ranks as a top 5 unit and is clearly the better unit of the two. The Jays pen end3d giving up 3 decisive runs includsing the winning run last night.
That leaves the two starting pitchers and there I am giving Gerrti Cole a huge edge over Ross Stripling.
Cole is still one of the best starting pitchers in baseball. He has started 13 games for the Yanks and 11 of them graded as well above average, with only 2 grading as below average. He has given up a total of just 22 runs (21 earned) on 60 hits (8 HRs) and 11 walks over 81.2 innings, with an impressive 113 Ks. Cole’s WHIP, ERA and wOBA are all superb, and his ERA metrics are totally consistent with his miniscule ERA. Cole’s expected wOBA is almost identical to his superb actual one. He ranks 6th in WHIP, 11th in ERA, and 2nd in K rate. He’s not giving walks, HRs or hard contact. Cole is elite and so far, the foreign substance crackdown hasn’t appeared to affect him.
Stripling has started 9 games for the Blue Jays, with more below average starts (5) than above average ones (4). He has given up 26 runs on 52 hits and 14 walks over 47.2 innings, with 49 Ks. Stripling’s WHIP ERA and WOBA are all high and his ERA metrics, while a little better that his high ERA are still not very good. Stripling’s 23.9 K rate is solid, and his 6.8% walk rate isn’t bad either.
The Jays have the offensive edge. Both bullpens are good, but the Yanks pen is just better, abut the biggest mismatch is at starting pitcher, while we have an elite Gerrit Cole facing a mediocre Ross Stripling. I don’t trust the Yanks offense enough for a full game bet, but for 5 innings, I’ll take Cole over Stripling.
Pick – NYY 1st 5 in a series of ML parlays
CHI C @ NYM
Starting Pitchers
7:10
|
SP 2021
|
|
50+ GS
|
50- GS
|
GS
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
CHI C
|
Stock - R
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NYM
|
deGrom - R
|
|
(10/10)
|
(0/10)
|
76
|
0.53
|
0.56
|
1.29
|
0.93
|
1.54
|
1.60
|
0.163
|
0.179
|
14.48
|
1.13
|
Edge – NYM huge
Bullpens
Team
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
SV
|
BS
|
W
|
L
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
CHI C
|
0.34
|
1
|
1.19
|
5
|
2.59
|
2
|
80.7%
|
2
|
3.0
|
2
|
21
|
6
|
13
|
6
|
29.1%
|
1
|
11.8%
|
27
|
NYM
|
0.47
|
7
|
1.30
|
14
|
3.70
|
8
|
71.7%
|
12
|
2.9
|
3
|
16
|
9
|
14
|
8
|
26.2%
|
7
|
9.2%
|
11
|
Edge – CHI C
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
CHI C
|
4.58
|
11
|
0.314
|
12
|
99
|
13
|
-1.5
|
13
|
0.178
|
7
|
1.5
|
11
|
8.8%
|
13
|
25.4%
|
22
|
NYM
|
3.86
|
27
|
0.305
|
16
|
98
|
14
|
-13.9
|
15
|
0.145
|
24
|
-8.6
|
29
|
8.9%
|
11
|
23.9%
|
18
|
Edge – CHI C
Conclusion: The red hot Mets won the first game of this series 5-2 on Monday night snapping the Cubs 5-game winning streak, and followed that up with a 3-2 win last night.
Offensively, while the Cubs possess an above league average offense, the Mets have mostly struggled to score runs despite that fact that their metrics (wOBA, wRC+ and ORAA) are all very close to the Cubs offensive metrics. The Mets should be hitting better than they actually are.
As for the two bullpens, both bullpens have performed a lot better than expected this season, but of the two, the Cubs hold most of the statistical edges.
That brings us to the two starting pitchers, and there, I give the Mets a huge edge with Jacob deGrom facing off with Robert Stock.
Staock was called up from AAA to make this start. He appeared as a reliever in 20 MLB ganes, 10 for the Padres in 2019 and 10 for thew Red Sox last aeason. He has complied a career 2-2 record, with a 1.54 WHIPand a 4.24 ERA over 63.2 MLB innings with a solid 23.6% K rate, but a high 10.9% walk rate.
deGrom’s numbers are absolutely incredible. He has a WHIP of 0.53, an ERA of 0.56, a wOBA and expected wOBA both under .200, ERA metrics that are all under 2.00, an elite 46.2% K rate, a low 3.6% walk rate and a 103/8 K/BB ratio!. If the Mets just give him a couple of runs early, this one should be an easy win.
I’m staying on the deGrom bandwagon and I’ll just pray he gets a couple of runs.
Pick – NYM 1st 5 ML in a series of ML parlays.
TEX @ HTN
Starting Pitchers
8:10
|
SP 2021
|
|
50+ GS
|
50- GS
|
GS
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
TEX
|
Lyles - R
|
|
(5/13)
|
(8/13)
|
44
|
1.52
|
5.37
|
5.47
|
4.91
|
4.69
|
4.70
|
0.362
|
0.363
|
7.66
|
3.22
|
HTN
|
Greinke - R
|
|
(9/14)
|
(5/14)
|
54
|
1.14
|
3.68
|
4.02
|
4.01
|
4.22
|
4.43
|
0.299
|
0.317
|
6.51
|
1.79
|
Edge – HTN big
Bullpens
Team
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
SV
|
BS
|
W
|
L
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
HTN
|
0.58
|
23
|
1.34
|
18
|
4.36
|
18
|
68.9%
|
22
|
-0.3
|
28
|
14
|
12
|
12
|
15
|
23.2%
|
22
|
10.4%
|
19
|
TEX
|
0.56
|
20
|
1.37
|
20
|
4.56
|
22
|
70.0%
|
18
|
0.7
|
20
|
13
|
8
|
13
|
16
|
23.7%
|
19
|
8.4%
|
4
|
Edge – TEX slight
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
TEX
|
3.97
|
23
|
0.296
|
24
|
88
|
23
|
-38.1
|
24
|
0.143
|
26
|
-3.9
|
25
|
8.2%
|
20
|
25.5%
|
23
|
HTN
|
5.51
|
1
|
0.341
|
1
|
122
|
1
|
61.0
|
1
|
0.171
|
10
|
-6.0
|
27
|
9.0%
|
10
|
18.4%
|
1
|
Edge – HTN big
Conclusion: The Astros, who trailed 1-0 after 5 inning last night, came roaring back for a 6-3 win over the Rangers. The Astros have the best offense in baseball. They rank 1st in runs per game, wOBA, wRC+ and ORAA, while the Rangers rank in the bottom third of the league in all three categories.
As for the two bullpens, that seems to be the Astros’ weakness. The Rangers atually rank a little better than the Astros in in RIP, strand rate, save rate, K rate and walk rate.
That leaves the two starting pitchers and I think that the Astros have a clear edge there with Zack Greinke facing Jordan Lyles.
Lyles hasn’t been a complete disaster for the Rangers, but he certainly leaves a lot to be desired. He has started 13 games for the Rangers, with more below average outings (8) than above average ones (5). His WHIP, ERA and wOBA are all very high and his ERA metrics and expected wOBA aren’t any better. His 19.3% K rate is pedestrian and he’s not compensating with a lot of GBs (36.5%) either. Aside from Lyles’ outrageously high WHIP, ERA and metrics, there’s also Lyles8.1% walk rate that gives him a poor 57/24 K/BB ratio. He somehow managed to outpitch Gerrit Cole (on his worst day) in one this season, but that was the rare exception and I doubt that we see a repeat performance anytime soon. I’m always looking to fade Lyles.
Greinke has now started 14 games for the Astros this season, with 9 above average starts and 5 below average ones. Greinke owns a good WHIP and ERA, and his wOBA and expected wOBA are both lower than league average. However, his ERA metrics are all a little higher than his ERA. That’s probably due to his poor 18.1% K rate which is about 4% lower than his career rate, and 40.5% GB rate, which is also lower than his career rate. Greinke’s biggest strength has always been that he doesn’t create problems by walking a lot of batters and that’s still the case. He’s walked just 17 in 85.2 innings this season and he’s also done a good job of limiting the long ball (11) and the hard contact (26.2%). At 37, Greinke is obviously facing some age-related decline and it’s shown up in some of his starts. He doesn’t throw very hard these days. His FB, which averaged over 92 mph over his career, now tops out at barely 89 mph. Greinke’s also not quite as consistent as he used to be, but his repertoire and his approach have helped him weather his decline and at least limit his risk. Greinke is coming of a bad start at the Red Sox, in which he gave up 4 runs on 7 hits and a walk and lasted just 3 innings. I’m looking for him to bounce back tonight and for the Astros to rack up some runs against Lyles..
Pick – HTN 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of ML parlays