TOR @ CHI WS
Starting Pitchers
8:10
|
SP 2021
|
|
GS +50
|
GS -50
|
GS
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
TOR
|
Ryu - L
|
|
(8/11)
|
(3/11)
|
55
|
1.11
|
3.23
|
3.52
|
3.44
|
3.56
|
3.69
|
0.294
|
0.298
|
8.30
|
1.55
|
CHI WS
|
Keuchel - L
|
|
(5/12)
|
(7/12)
|
47
|
1.29
|
4.25
|
6.18
|
4.88
|
4.26
|
4.53
|
0.325
|
0.382
|
4.52
|
2.62
|
Edge – TOR???
Bullpens
Team
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
SV
|
BS
|
W
|
L
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
TOR
|
0.47
|
11
|
1.18
|
3
|
3.86
|
13
|
66.5%
|
28
|
2.4
|
5
|
11
|
15
|
13
|
14
|
23.0%
|
23
|
7.3%
|
1
|
CHI WS
|
0.46
|
7
|
1.22
|
7
|
3.71
|
11
|
71.5%
|
13
|
2.0
|
10
|
8
|
3
|
12
|
6
|
24.4%
|
17
|
9.8%
|
14
|
Edge – CHI WS slight
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
TOR
|
4.95
|
6
|
0.330
|
2
|
110
|
3
|
23.6
|
4
|
0.182
|
4
|
-1.8
|
22
|
8.0%
|
24
|
22.1%
|
3
|
CHI WS
|
4.93
|
7
|
0.330
|
2
|
113
|
2
|
40.4
|
2
|
0.154
|
18
|
5.4
|
4
|
10.4%
|
4
|
23.6%
|
13
|
Edfge – CHI WS razon thin
Conclusion: The Jays came from behind with 5 runs in the final two innings to gain a 6-2 win ovr the White Sos last night. Offensively, both of these teams can put up runs in bunches. They both rank in the top 10 in runs per ga,e, wOBA, wRC+ and ORAA. The White Sox walk more, but the Jays strike out less.
As for the two bullpens, it is again extremely close. Last night it was the Jays who teed off on the White Sox pen, and on Tuesday it was the White Sox winning lat against the Jays pen. Both bullpens look mediocre.
That leaves the two starting pitchers, both lefties, and I have a problem there as well. On paper the numbers all point to Ryue having a significant edge, and if I was sure that he’s completely healthy, I would agree. However I’m not sure. Last season Ryu dropped 1 mph on his FB and this season, he’s lost another mph? The second problem is that he’s a lefty, and the White SSox hit lefties better than any other team, with a .357 wOBA and 131 wRC+ (both ranked #1) against them.
As for Keuchel, he’s struggled all season with more below average outings than above average ones. His WHIP and ERA are both mediocre and hid ERA metrics are all higher than his mediocre ERA. The same pattern holds true form Keuchel’s WOB, which is slightly higher than league average, but his expected wOBA is a lot higher, and he’s got a lousy 12% K rate, but he does generate a 59.5% GB rate. Keuchel is also a lefty, and while the Jays don’t hit lefties as well as the White Sox do, they still have a .323 wOBA (rank #13) and a 105 wRC+ (rank #11) against them.
Between the question marks with the two starting pitchers, the issues with both bullpens and the potency and explosiveness of both offenses, this total looks low to me and I risk a couple of units on that opinion.
Pick – OVER 9 (-107 for 2 units)