For what it’s worth, for a while yesterday looked like it might turn out to be a rare good day, but it just ended up being another disappointing one mainly because of parlay plays on the Dodgers (game 1) and Padres.
My sided plays were all very good, going 5-2. I cashed sides with the White Sox, Giants (game 1), Braves and Yankees, as well as push on a total in the white Sox/Reds game. My only losers were the Rangers and Giants (game 2).
I believe that my three-team 1st 5 parlay would have worked out geat, but for the postponement of the Mets game at STL. Both the Phils and Marlins covered.
The huge disappointment came in my series of parlays on the Dodgers and Padres. I lost the first batch when Clayton Kershw and the Dodgers bats crapped the bed in game 1. I then lost the second batch when the Padres couldn’t manage a run off the dreadful Mitch Keller. Because of those two games, a really good day that should have been, wasn’t.
Let’s move on to today;s games. I’m not confident about anything these days, but we’ll keep ttrying.
Here’s the first game:
CHI WS @ CIN
Starting Pitchers
12:35
|
SP 2021
|
GS 50+
|
GS 50-
|
GS
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
HC%
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
CHI WS
|
Keuchel - L
|
(2/6)
|
(4/6)
|
47
|
1.32
|
4.65
|
4.50
|
4.45
|
4.85
|
0.312
|
0.378
|
27.5%
|
4.65
|
3.19
|
0.87
|
CIN
|
Gray - R
|
(1/3)
|
(2/3)
|
42
|
1.76
|
5.93
|
4.35
|
3.20
|
3.39
|
0.392
|
0.347
|
27.3%
|
15.15
|
5.27
|
1.98
|
Keuchel has started 6 games for the WHite Sox and just 2 of them have been above average. He’s given up a total of 18 runs (16 earned) on 30 hits and 11 walks over 31 innings with 16 Ks. That’s a lot of walks for 31 innings. His WHIP, ERA and metrics are all hig, with a lousy K rate and a high wak rate. Keuchel should be better than that.
Gray, hampered by a spring back injury, has made just 3 starts this season. In his first start against the Indians, Gray gave up 2 runs on 6 hits and 2 walks over just 4.1 innings. Grays next start at the Cards was worse. Gray gave up 5 runs on 6 hits and 3 walks over just 3.1 innings, but he did notch 6 Ks. Is Gray that bad? I doubt it. In his last start at the DodgersHray seemed to be rounding into form. He gave up 2 runs over 5.2 innings with 4 hits and 3 walks, with a whopping 11 Ks. Gary is coming off a fine 2020, and appears to be getting back to where he was in 2020.
Edge - CIN
Bullpens
Team
|
RIP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLD
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
CHW
|
0.55
|
19
|
1.30
|
19
|
0.6
|
11
|
5
|
7
|
5
|
7
|
9
|
69.1%
|
22
|
27.7%
|
5
|
7.9%
|
3
|
CIN
|
0.68
|
29
|
1.42
|
24
|
-0.3
|
27
|
6
|
4
|
5
|
7
|
10
|
64.6%
|
29
|
25.3%
|
12
|
14.2%
|
30
|
My seach for a bullpen that’s worse than the White Sox is over. It’s the Reds’ pen!
Edge – CHI WS (I can’t believe that I wrote than!)
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
ARIZ
|
5.36
|
2
|
0.325
|
5
|
103
|
9
|
3.6
|
10
|
0.185
|
3
|
10.0%
|
4
|
22.4%
|
5
|
MIA
|
3.96
|
22
|
0.292
|
26
|
87
|
23
|
-16.4
|
26
|
0.132
|
27
|
8.9%
|
12
|
26.1%
|
23
|
Both of these teams can hit a ton, but the White Sox have had some injuroes.
Edge – None
Conclusion: The offenses are both potent, but I don’t trust either bullpen. However, I;m giving the starting pitching edge to Gray today over a struggling Keuche, and I'll risk a unit on Gray for 5 innings.l.
Pick – CIN 1st 5 ML (-126 for 1 unit)