For what it’s worth, yesterday was another good day. I finished the day +5.70 units and am now +2.63 units for the season. It may not sound like much, but damn, it sure feels good to finally be able to finally put a plus sign in front of my 2021 unit count.
It started with a split result in the Giants/Phillies game. I had the Giants 1st 5 ML. The Phils staked Zach Eflin to a 3-0 2nd inning lead, courtesy of CF Mickey Moniak’s first HR of the season, a 3-run shot off Anthony DeSclafani. Eflin scattered 5 hits over those first 5 innings but gave up just 1 run and my 1st 5 Giants was dead. In hindsight, the full game ML was probably the better bet, or at least that was the oddsmakers opinion (+11 v +116). Fortotunately, I also had the 1st 5 under 4.5. The way I figured it, neither team was hitting well, both starting pitchers were pitching well, and 4.5 is a little high for that combo. DeSclafani just made that one mistake with two men on that cost him, but the 1st 5 stayed under and I came out of the game with a split.
I next had the Marlins 1st 5 RL. The Marlins made me sweat this one out. It was 0-0 entering the bottom of the 5th. Was the danger of betting a 1st 5 RL (the push) going to bite me in the ass? The Marlins had runners on 1st and 2nd with two outs in the bottom of the 5th. They had already squandered several opportunities like this in the first 4 innings. Would they squander another? No! 1B Jesus Aguilar doubled and it was 2-0. That was followed by an Adam Duval single that brought in Aguilar and I had a 3-0 winner. So far so good.
Next, I had the Nats 1st 5. My first three bets were all just 1 unit because I thought they were close. I made this one a 2 unit play. The Nats were my highest confidence play of the day. How could they not be? I was getting a starting pitcher (Max Scherzer) that I still considered elite facing a very mediocre Cards offense. It seemed like a “no brainer”. As it turned out, it was anything but. Scherzer started the 1st by digging himself into a nasty hole by hitting a batter, then giving up an infield single and a walk. Just that fact, the Cards had the bases loaded with just 1 out. Then, in typical Scherzer fashion, he struck out the next two batters to end the threat. Scherzer caught another break in the top of the 2nd. LF Justin Williams led off the inning with a single, but was caught trying to steal 2nd while Scherzer was striking out the next batter. As a result, when the next batter (P carlos Martinez) doubled, there was no one to drive in. The Nats got 1their first and only run in the bottom of the 2nd on an infield single and an Alex Avila double. Scherzer settled down nicely, allowing just 1 more hit and 0 runs over the next 4 innings and I had a much closer than expected 1-0 winner. BTW, Scherzer finished with 9 Ks in his 6 innings. The lesson to remember here is to never underestimate the importance of being able to get Ks. That ability can get pitchers out of jams.
My final play was on the Braves 1st 5 ML. I liked it, but it still scared the hell out of me because I didn’t understand the line. Why were the Yankees favored? The Braves were without Acuna, but the Yanks are not hitting at all right now and there’s no way of predicting when that will change. Yes, they had “the great” Corey Kluber on the mound, but Kluber hasn’t been great since 2018. Hell, he’s barely pitched since then and he hasn’t pictched very well this season. And what about the Braves starting pitcher, young Ian Anderson? We all got a sample of what he’s capable of during the Braves 2020 playoff run. What were the oddsmakers seeing that I was missing? That troubled me because usually when that happens, I’m the one who’s wrong. Since I was assured of at least a small profit even if I lost this game, I went ahead and made it a 2-unit play. Fortunately, this time I was right and the oddsmaker were wrong. Anderson pitched well. He tossed 6.2 scoreless innings, scattering 4 hits and 4 walks, while striking out 4. Kluber was the best that he’s been all season, matching 0s with Anderson for 4 innings, but in the top of the 5th, after a single and two walks loaded the bases with just 1 out, a sac fly brought in the first run of the game. Another walk loaded the bases again and ended Kluber’s evening. In came young Nick Nelson out of the bullpen and he promptly did what he absolutely could not afford to do. He walked the first batter he faced. That made it 2-0 Braves and I had another winner. It was indeed another good day.
Let’s move on to today’s card. It’s small and there’s no a lot that I like.
NYY @ CLEV
Starting Pitchers
Domingo German (R) v Aaron Civale
6:10
|
SP 2021
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
wOBA
|
HC %
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
GB%
|
NYY
|
German
|
2.00
|
9.00
|
9.37
|
5.40
|
4.43
|
9.00
|
2.57
|
5.14
|
0.476
|
40.7%
|
0.348
|
83.3%
|
37.0%
|
CKEV
|
Civale
|
0.73
|
2.18
|
4.30
|
3.92
|
3.99
|
6.97
|
2.18
|
1.31
|
0.227
|
35.3%
|
0.146
|
93.2%
|
48.0%
|
German (0-1), who missed all of 2020 after his suspension, will return from the Yankees' alternate training site to start tonight’s game in CLEV. He started one game for the Yanks back on April 4, and it did not go well. German only lasted 3 innings giving up 3 runs on 4 hits (2 HRs) and a walk, while striking out 2.
Civale (3-0) has started 3 games for the Indians this season and all three were very good. He has given up a total of just 5 runs on 10 hits and 5 walks over 20.2 innings, while striking out 16. That’s left Civale with an excellent WHIP and ERA. However his ERA metrics are all well over a full run higher than his ERA, but still decent. That can be explained by Civale’s unsustainably low BABIP and unsustainably high strand rate. As those numbers normalize I would expect Civale’s ERA to rise and move closer to his metrics. Civale’s 21.9% K rate is mediocre, but he is combining it with a solid close to 50% GB rate. Civale’s stuff has good spin rates and he has a solid command profile. He’s just not a particularly hard thrower, with his FB clocking in at 91.5 mph.
Civale’s been consistent and we just don’t know what to expect from German.
Edge – CLEV
Bullpens
Right now the only real strength on this team, other tha Gerrit Cole is the Ynks’ pan.
Edge – NYY
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
NYY
|
3.47
|
27
|
0.284
|
29
|
83
|
26
|
-16.3
|
28
|
0.129
|
27
|
10.9%
|
4
|
24.2%
|
15
|
CLE
|
3.88
|
24
|
0.299
|
22
|
89
|
22
|
-7.5
|
20
|
0.180
|
6
|
10.1%
|
7
|
23.4%
|
11
|
The Indians don’t have a very good offense, but right now they’re still hitting better that the Yanks are. Eventually, the Yanks should hit and when they do, they should be much better than the Indians, but I’m sure as hell not counting on that happening tonight.
Edge – CLEV
Conclusion: Both offenses are bad, but right now the Yanks are worse, As for the two starting pitchers, German had a solid 2919 season, but missed all of 2020 and didn’t pitch very well in his one start this season and that ewas almost 3 weeks ago. Civale’s been very effective in all three of his starts. He won’t dominate with Ks, but he should be able to limit the hard contact and keep the ball on the ground, and the way the Yanks are hitting right now that should be enough.
Pick – CLEV 1st 5 RL (+120 for 2 units)
There won't be many more plays today, maybe one or two more later.
BOL all!