For what it’s worth, yesterday was another win one/lose one sort of a day. All my plays were 1st 5s. My winners were the Phils, the Indians and the White Sox (game1). My one loser was the Marlins. Fortunately, I always make my bets pitcher specific, so that when the Nats scratched Stephen Strasburg, my Nats parlays were voided. I also had two pushes with both the Yankees and the Brewers. I finished +6.46 units for the day and am now morning I’m now only -3.78 units for the season. That’s not good, but it sure as hell is better than it was just a few days ago.
The Phils got a stellar complete game 2-hit shutout and 10 Ks from Aaron Nola in a 2-0 win over the Cards.
Shane Bieber, the 2020 AL Cy Young Award winner, continued his record K run, fanning 13 in the Indians 6-3 win over the Reds in CIN. Bieber became the first pitcher in MLB history to open the season with four straight starts with at least 10 Ks since the mound was moved to its current distance back in 1893. He now has 48 Ks this season, matching Hall of Famer Nolan Ryan for the most through their first four starts. Bieber has now fanned at least eight in 16 straight starts, one short of Randy Johnson's major league record.
Dallas Keuchel was solid, giving up just 1 run over 5 innings as the White Sox put up 3 runs in their 3-2 win at the Red Sox.
I certainly can’t blame the Marlins loss on Pablo Lopez. All he did was give up 1 unearned run over 6 innings while strijing out 9. The Giants got their one run when with 2 out and a runner on 1st, an error by Marlins 1B Aguilar jepts the inning alive while moving the run to 2nd. He scored when the next batter, Dickerson, single. Unfortunately for Lopez, the Marlins were hels scoreless by Alex Wood.
As for the two pushes, I guess you could say that I was lucky there too, since both the Yanks and the Brewers ended up losing their games. The Yanks, who just aren’t hitting, managed to push across a run in the bottom of the 5th to ties the game at 2-2 and save me form a loss. The Brwers, who squandered an early 2-0 lead, also need a run in the bottom of the 4th to get me a 3-3 push. First 5s can be flukey and as I mentioned in yesterday’s post, pushes are a downside of betting 1st 5 MLs. Full games ML bets are either winners or losers, but a game can be tied at the end of 5, so first 5 ML bets are more likely to push.
Let’s move on to today’s card. It’s a small card and we have an 11:00 game in BOS, where they’re celebrating Patriots Day with the tradition late morning game.
Here’s my breakdown of this morning’s game. Everything else is at night so I’ll be back later. BOL all.
CHI WS @ BOS
Starting Pitchers
Lucas Giolito ® v Nathan Eovalsi (R)
Giolito (1-0)) has started three games for the White Sox and all three were good. In the season opener, Gioilito retired the Angels' first 11 batters he faced and pitched 2-hit ball into the 6th inning. He followed than up by giving up 3 runs on 4 hits and a walk, while notching 10 Ks in the White Sox 10-4 win in SEA. In his last start at home against the Indians, Giolito tossed 7 scorekss innings giving up just 3 hits and 2 walks, with 8 Ks. He started 12 games for the White Sox last season, posting a 4-3 record with 10 good starts including his last 7, and just 2 poor ones. Giolito’s 1.04 WHIP and 3.48 ERA were both excellent and his ERA metrics ERA metrics were mostly a little lower than his fine ERA. His career best 33.7% K rate was superb and he combined it with a solid GB rate, but his 28 walks in just over 72 innings was still high, but that’s about it for the negatives. In 2019, Giolito added almost 2 mph to his FB thanks to an offseason training regimen. His added velocity transformed his four--seamer from pitiful into legitimately above-average, and that helped his secondary pitches play up from merely good to excellent. He also completely ditched his 2-seamer. All that turned Giolito into the ace everyone once hoped he could be.
Eovaldi (1-1) has started three games for the Red Sox this season and all three were good. In his first start against the Orioles, Eovaldi gave up just 1 run on 4 hits and a walk over 5.1 innings with 4 Ks and 9 GBs in a tough 3-0 loss. He followed that up with another strong outing against the Rays in which he gave up just 1 run on 3 hits and 3 walks over 7 innings, with 7 Ks and 10 GBs. In his last start in MINN, Eovaldi gave up 2 runs on 5 hits and 2 walks over 5 innings with 3 Ks. in the Red Sox 3-2 win. He still possesses a 98-mph heater and now mixes in a more diverse pitch mix that makes the heater look even better. That and not seeing a lineup a third time has really helped him.
Eovaldi started 9 games for the Red Sox last season this season, finishing 4-2 with 6 good starts and 2 poor ones. He gave up 20 runs on 51 hits (8 HRs) and 7 walks over 48.1 innings, with 52 Hs . The Ks are impressive, especially when combined with a nice 48.9% GB rate. Giving up more hits than innings pitched is a concern, but a lot less so with a very low 3.5%walk rate. That’s left him with a solid 1.20 WHIP and a 3.72 ERA. Eovali’s ERA metrics are all even lower than his ERA. That’s probably because his .336 BABIP was almost 30 points higher than his career average. If that normalizes the ERA should go down, closer to where his metrics say he should be. After years of falling short, Eovaldi finally showed some signs of living up to expectations.
I’m still not sold on Eovaldi, but I am a believer in Giolito
Edge – CHI WS
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV/SVO
|
HLDs
|
LOB%
|
R/IP
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
CHW
|
2
|
6
|
(1/6)
|
4
|
76.3%
|
0.66
|
0.6
|
6
|
1.23
|
11
|
4.20
|
17
|
31.3%
|
3
|
8.5%
|
6
|
BOS
|
3
|
1
|
(3/4)
|
6
|
79.9%
|
0.43
|
0.9
|
3
|
1.35
|
17
|
3.35
|
7
|
25.3%
|
12
|
12.2%
|
24
|
If the White Sox underachieve this season, their bullpen will be the main culprit.
Edge – BOS
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BOS
|
5.86
|
3
|
0.344
|
4
|
117
|
3
|
10.2
|
3
|
0.182
|
6
|
7.4%
|
28
|
22.2%
|
6
|
CHW
|
4.93
|
7
|
0.318
|
9
|
105
|
9
|
3.0
|
8
|
0.133
|
28
|
11.7%
|
3
|
22.5%
|
8
|
Both teams are hitting a ton.
Edge – BOS slight
Conclusion: The offenses are both very potent and very close. The White Sox bullpen has been problematic, but I like and trust Giolito a hell of a lot more than I do Nathan Eovaldi, and I still don’t believe th Red Sox are that good. , I’ll take Giolito and lay the half run to get the better price.
Pick CHI WS 1st 5 RL (+118 for 2 units)