For what it’s worth, yesterday was a real ball-buster. First the Mets game was postponed. Next, the Nats and the Giants both pushed on 1st 5 bets. Finally, to top it all off, the Dodgers beat the Padres 11-6, but lost the 1st 5 2-1. First 5 wagers can be a two-edged sword. Yes, you avoid those unpredictable bullpens, but pushes are more likely to occur. You also sometimes take at-bats away from the better hitting team. Yesterday the Dodgers were a classic example of this. They were clearly the better hitting team and they finally showed it, but they trailed 2-1 after 5 and then scored 3 in the 6th, one inning too late for my 1st 5. At the evening’s end, I was up a whopping +0.10 units. This morning I’m only -9.46 units for the season. It’s not good, but it’s a hell of a lot better than it was just a few days ago.
Let’s move on to two early games that I like.
TB @ NYY
TB - Tyler Glasnow (R) v NY - Jordan Montgomery (L)
Glasnow has now started 3 games for the Rays this season and all 3 were very good. In those 3 starts, Glasnow has given up just 1 run on 7 hits and 3 walks with 6 Ks and 8 GBs. He followed that up with another strong outing at the Red Sox, giving up just 1 run on 4 hits (0 HRS) and 2 walks over 19.2 innings, with an impressive 29 Ks. That leaves him with a miniscule 0.51 WHIP and 0.46 ERA. His ERA metrics are all under 2.00. Now throw in a 38.2% K rate and a 29/3 K/BB ratio and it’s obvious that Glasnow’s off to one hell of a start. One concern that I had going into this season was that with Snell and Morton, both gone, Glasnow would have to be the ace of the staff and that’s a role he’s never had to play before. It’s still early and the Rays may be struggling, but Glasnow’s dealing it.
Montgomery (1-0) was very good in his first start against the Orioles, scattering 4 hits and no walks over 6 scoreless innings with 7 Ks. However, Montgomery wasn’t as sharp in his second start at these Rays, giving up 4 runs on 5 hits (2 HRs) and 2 walks over 5 innings with 4 Ks. His 1.00 WHIP and 3.27 ERA are both very good. Montgomery’s ERA metrics are a little higher, but still good as is his 24.4% K rate and 30% hard hit rate.
Montgomery’s been solid so far, but Glasnow’s been spectacular.
Edge – TB
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV/SVO
|
HLDs
|
LOB%
|
R/IP
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
NYY
|
2
|
3
|
(2/2)
|
4
|
71.1%
|
0.34
|
1.5
|
1
|
0.83
|
1
|
2.04
|
2
|
32.7%
|
2
|
5.9%
|
2
|
TBR
|
3
|
4
|
(3/7)
|
7
|
65.3%
|
0.74
|
0.0
|
17
|
1.62
|
28
|
5.70
|
28
|
21.8%
|
27
|
10.5%
|
15
|
The Rays pen has struggled a lot more than the Yanks pen has. They’ve giving up a whopping 0.40 more runs per inning pitched than the Yanks do. The Yanks also have the better WAR, WHIP and ERA, with a higher K rate and a lower walk rate.
Edge – NYY
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
TBR
|
4.14
|
19
|
0.300
|
22
|
95
|
16
|
-3.4
|
21
|
0.149
|
17
|
9.1%
|
15
|
26.3%
|
23
|
NYY
|
3.85
|
24
|
0.308
|
19
|
97
|
12
|
-1.6
|
12
|
0.140
|
22
|
10.6%
|
5
|
22.6%
|
10
|
The Rays have scored a few more runs, but the underlying metrics say that the Yanks have been slightly better. Based on last season’s numbers, both team should be hitting a lot better than they are, especially the Yanks. You wouldn’t reach this conclusion based on last night’s 8-2 Rays win, but…
Edge – NYY
Conclusion: Both of these teams have struggled so far. The Yanks aren’t hitting and the starting pitching, other than Gerrit Cole, has been spotty. The Rays aren’t hitting either and their usually solid bullpen hasn’d been very good. As for the starting rotation, it’s been Glasnow and a bunch of question makrs., For me this one comes down to the two starting pitchers. Montgomery’s been OK, but Glasnow’s beet great. I’ll put my money on Glasnow for five innings and hope the Rays give him a few runs.
Pick – TB 1st 5 ML (-125 for 2 units)
ATL @ CHI C
Starting Pitchers
ATL – Huascar Ynoa (R) v CHI C – Trevor Williams (R)
Ynoa has now started 2 games for the Braves and also made 1 appearance out of the ATL pen. Both of his starts were very good. Ynoa pitched well in his first start at WASH, tossing 5 scoreless innings while just 2 hits and a walk with 5 Ks. His second start against the Marlins was also good. He gave up just 1run on 3 hits ( HR) and 1 walk over 6 inings with an impressive 10Ks. That’s left him with a stellar 0.67 WHIP, 0.75 ERA and great ERA metrics. Ynoa was considered the most underrated prospect in the Braves farm system despite not posting flashy numbers. He was originally a signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2014 by the Twins. Ynoa has had a relatively quick trip up the ladder, and although the numbers don’t necessarily justify it, the general feeling is that his stuff is better than his numbers have indicated. In 2018, Williams had what I would consider a career season. He started 31 games, delivering a 14-10 record with a 1.18 WHIP and a 3.11 ERA. I never really bought into it. His ERA metrics told me that he was pitching way over his head. Williams needed a career low .261 BABIP, 30 points lower that his next best number, and a career low 8.0% HR/FB to do it. A repeat seemed highly unlikely, and sure enough, he hasn’t come close to that since. Williams is a pitch to contact guy. What he has been able to do throughout his career is limit the amount of hard contact (30.3%) that he gives up, It’s his contact management skills that keep him relevant.
Williams is what he is a pitch to contact type with limited upside, while Ynoa is still underrated with decent upside.
Edge – ATL
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV/SVO
|
HLDs
|
LOB%
|
R/IP
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
ATL
|
4
|
6
|
(2/6)
|
8
|
81.4%
|
0.36
|
0.6
|
6
|
1.37
|
19
|
3.61
|
11
|
27.2%
|
5
|
12.1%
|
23
|
CHC
|
1
|
1
|
(4/5)
|
8
|
77.3%
|
0.42
|
0.7
|
4
|
1.35
|
17
|
3.19
|
6
|
33.5%
|
1
|
15.3%
|
30
|
Edge – None
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
ATL
|
4.57
|
11
|
0.313
|
13
|
93
|
21
|
-4.2
|
22
|
0.200
|
3
|
8.4%
|
22
|
25.9%
|
19
|
CHC
|
2.62
|
30
|
0.254
|
30
|
57
|
30
|
-22.2
|
30
|
0.144
|
19
|
8.9%
|
17
|
29.4%
|
30
|
The Cubs haven’t hit worth crap this season. The Braves started slowly, but are hitting better. Last season’s numbers say that the Braves will hit. The same can’t be said of the Cubs.
Edge – ATL
Conclusion: The Braves have the better offense and I think they aso have the better starting pitcher today.
Pick – ATL ML (-110 for 2 units)
I’ll be back with more later