ATN said : Your theory is flawed because the winner of game 1 wins game 2 60% of the time.
So 40% of the time I win the "unit" right away on game 2
Question, of the 60% of the time it loses and the team goes up 2-0 in the series, what percentage of the time do they lose game 3 and the series is 2-1 ? or they win again and be up 3-0 ?
That is the real percentage I'm curious about because that is the real percentage of ultimately winning that "unit"
what I like about the bet now is I'm betting the dog so I currently only have to risk about .75 of a unit initially.
Finally, of the times the team wins and goes up 3-0, what's the percentage of them ultimately sweeping the series?
The only recent sweep that comes to my recollection was about 14 or 15 years ago when Boston swept the Rockies.
I like my chances of the Rays at least winning one game, but if you can pull it up lets calculate the actual chances.
Always appreciate your input Norm. Thanks for weighing in.
I'll be trying this strategy,
RAYS +134 tonight
I'll actually hold off until about game time to hopefully get even better odds because Dodgers are a publicly backed team and the money may very well be pouring in on them.