I apologize for not getting my TB/BALT Game #1 write up posted in time. I just lost tract of time. Here a my three 7 PM game write ups.
TOR @ NYY
Starting Pitchers
7:05
|
2020
|
|
GOOD
|
BAD
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
GB%
|
HC%
|
TOR
|
Anderson - R (0-1)
|
|
(2/7)
|
(2/7)
|
1.56
|
5.81
|
5.28
|
4.38
|
4.47
|
0.371
|
8.54
|
2.73
|
2.05
|
0.346
|
68.5%
|
40.5%
|
29.8%
|
NYY
|
Tanaka - R (2-2)
|
|
(6/8)
|
(1/8)
|
1.03
|
3.16
|
4.03
|
4.33
|
4.01
|
0.285
|
8.27
|
1.22
|
1.46
|
0.270
|
72.8%
|
37.5%
|
31.1%
|
Edge – NYY
Bullpens
Edge – None
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wRAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
TOR
|
4.81
|
12
|
0.327
|
12
|
105
|
11
|
7.0
|
12
|
0.183
|
13
|
36.9%
|
13
|
9.6%
|
13
|
22.1%
|
10
|
NYY
|
5.22
|
6
|
0.329
|
10
|
107
|
9
|
10.7
|
10
|
0.192
|
6
|
35.6%
|
18
|
9.0%
|
16
|
22.4%
|
12
|
Edge – NYY
Conclusion: Both the Yankees (28-21) and the Blue Jays (26-22) appear likely to make the AL playoffs. Offensively, the Yanks are getting healthy at exactly the right time. They got Giancarlo Stanton back from a strained hamstring and Aaron Judge has also been actiivated. The Yanks put up 20 runs on Tuesday and another 13 yesterday. The Jays possess an above average offense, but it’s no match for a health Yankee team. As for the two bullpens, the Yanks have underachieved and the Jays have overachieved. The stats tell me that they’re even. That leaves the two starting pitchers and that matchup should favor the Yankees.
Chase Anderson has now started 7 games for the Blue Jays with 2 good starts and 2 poor ones. He didn’t go deep enough to even qualify one way or the other in any of his first 3 starts maxing out at 3.2 innings. Anderson has given up a total of 19 runs (17 earned) on 33 hits and 8 walks over 26.1 innings with 25 Ks. That’s more hits than innings pitched and it’s left him with a high 1.56 WHIP and 5.81 ERA. His ERA metrics are all a little lower than hos ERA, but still not very good.
Masahiro Tanaka has now started 8 games for the Yankees this season and 6 of them were good, including his last 4m and just 2 were poor. That left him with an excellent 1.03 WHIP and 3.16 ERA. His ERA metrics are all about a run higher than his ERA, but still decent. That’s probably because he doesn’t have a great K rate, but on the plus side Tanaka is not giving up a lot of hard contact or walking a lot of batters. At 31, I think that this 60 game season has actually helped Tanaka
The Yankees have the better offense and Tanaka is still a better pitcher than Anderson.
Pick – NYY 1st 5 ML and full game ML
CLEV @ DET
Starting Pitchers
7:10
|
2020
|
|
GOOD
|
BAD
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
GB%
|
HC%
|
CLEV
|
Bieber - R (7-1)
|
|
(10/10)
|
(0/10)
|
0.87
|
1.53
|
2.03
|
1.93
|
2.43
|
0.220
|
14.20
|
2.23
|
0.84
|
0.279
|
94.7%
|
48.4%
|
30.5%
|
DET
|
Mize - R (0-0)
|
|
(1/5)
|
(0/5)
|
1.40
|
5.85
|
4.84
|
4.93
|
4.52
|
0.334
|
9.45
|
3.60
|
1.35
|
0.304
|
64.8%
|
42.4%
|
28.8%
|
Edge – CLEV big
Bullpens
Edge – CLEV
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wRAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
CLEV
|
4.00
|
27
|
0.301
|
27
|
84
|
26
|
-31.2
|
27
|
0.137
|
28
|
34.1%
|
26
|
7.0%
|
30
|
23.5%
|
15
|
DET
|
4.44
|
21
|
0.309
|
24
|
92
|
23
|
-17.2
|
24
|
0.168
|
20
|
35.1%
|
24
|
11.5%
|
1
|
26.8%
|
30
|
Edge – DET small
Conclusion: The Indians (26-23) will probably grab one of the two final AL playoff spots. As for the Tigers (21-27), they are 4.5 games out in the AL wild card race with 12 games left to play. I don’t like their chances. Offensively, neither of these teams is very good, but of the two, the Tigers are probably slightly less putrid than the Indians. As for the two bullpens, they’re not close at all. The Indians have an elite pen and the Tigers don’t. That brings us to the two starting pitchers and that looks like a huge mismatch as well.
Shane Bieber has now started 10 games for the Indians and every single one has been good. He’s averaging over 6.1 innings per start and has given up a total of just 11 runs on 40 hits (6 HRs) and 16 walks over 64.2 innings, with 102 Ks. Bieber’s 0.87 WHIP is miniscule as is his 1.53 ERA. His ERA metrics are slightly higher, but still great, as is his .220 wOBA against. Bieber’s 41.3% K rate is unbelievable and will probably come down some. Right now, Bieber has to be considered a Cy Young favorite.
Casey Mise is a highly touted prospect and he’s now started 5 games with just 1 good start, but no poor ones. That’s because the Tigers usually pull him at the first sign of trouble. Mize is averaging just 4 inings per start. He has given up a total of 14 runs (13 earned) on 20 hits and 8 walks over 20 innings with 21 Ks. The Ks are impressive, but the 1.40 WHIP and 5.85 ERA are not. His 8 walks and 3 HRs are both high for just 20 innings, but his 28.8% hard contact rate is excellent.
Bieber is the clearly better pitcher and he’s backed up by an elite bullpen. The Indians may not score much, but I think that they’ll score more than the Indians’ pitcher give up tonight.
Pick – CLEV 1st 5 ML and full game ML
TEX @ HTN
Starting Pitchers
7:10
|
2020
|
|
GOOD
|
BAD
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
GB%
|
HC%
|
lTEX
|
Lyles - R (1-4)
|
|
(1/6)
|
(5/6)
|
1.64
|
7.80
|
6.14
|
6.18
|
5.78
|
0.361
|
5.70
|
4.22
|
1.90
|
0.291
|
56.5%
|
39.9%
|
33.3%
|
HTN
|
Vsldez - L (3-3)
|
|
(4/8)
|
(4/8)
|
1.20
|
4.08
|
3.33
|
3.31
|
3.58
|
0.292
|
8.95
|
2.35
|
0.78
|
0.314
|
65.1%
|
58.8%
|
41.6%
|
Edge – HTN
Bullpens
Edge – TEX
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wRAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
TEX
|
3.73
|
29
|
0.285
|
29
|
68
|
30
|
-51.6
|
29
|
0.143
|
26
|
39.4%
|
4
|
9.5%
|
14
|
24.6%
|
24
|
HTN
|
4.96
|
9
|
0.315
|
19
|
101
|
15
|
-9.6
|
19
|
0.171
|
18
|
35.4%
|
21
|
11.2%
|
2
|
20.1%
|
1
|
Edge – HTN big
Conclusion: The Astros (25-25) will make the playoffs despite not being very good and the Rangers (18-31) won’t. You ceouldn’t tell it by last night’s pathetic performance, but on paper, the Astros should have the much better offense. The Astros may well be very mediocre with bats, but the Rangers are anemic. They win last night scoring just 1 run because for some unfathomable reason the Astros couldn’t hit Kyle Gibson. I can’t really explain that because everybody else has beaten the crap out of Gibson. As for the two bullpens, I decided to to completely bypass that hot mess and bet the 1st 5 only. That brings us to the two starting pitchers.
Jordan Lyles has started 6 games for the Rangers and 5 of them have been bad and just 1 was good. His WHIP sits at an ugly 1.64 and his ERA is a horrific 7.80. His ERA metrics are all around 6.00 and his wOBA against is a high .361. He doesn’t miss many bats and he’s walked 20 and given up 9 HRs in just under 43 innings. There’s nothing to like about this guy.
Framber Valdez has started 8 games this season with 4 good starts and 4 poor ones. He has a 1.20 WHIP and mediocre 4.08 ERA. However, his ERA metrics are all about a half a run lower than his ERA. That’s probably because of his low 65% strand rate which should normalize. Valdez is striking out just under a batter per inning, and combining it with an almost 60% GB rate.
I’ll take my chances with Valdez for 5 innings against Lyles.
Pick – HTN 1st 5 ML