LAA @ SEA
The Angels are struggling at 4-8 and the Mariners at 5-8 aren’t much better. These two teams have split the first two games of this series.
Starting Pitchers
4:10
|
2020
|
|
GOOD
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
HR/9
|
wOBA
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
K/BB
|
HC %
|
GB%
|
LAA
|
Bundy
|
|
2
|
0
|
0.71
|
2.84
|
2.35
|
3.15
|
2.80
|
31.3%
|
4.2%
|
0.71
|
0.207
|
0.207
|
69.8%
|
0.13
|
36.7%
|
26.7%
|
SEA
|
Walker
|
|
1
|
1
|
1.06
|
4.35
|
3.66
|
4.81
|
4.32
|
22.0%
|
7.3%
|
0.87
|
0.281
|
0.259
|
66.0%
|
0.33
|
50.0%
|
25.0%
|
Dylan Bundy has started 2 games for the Angels and both have been good. In his first start at the OAK, Bundy held the A’s to 1 run on 3 hits, with 7 Ks over 6.2 innings. He follow that up with another solid startagainst these Mariners, giving up 3 runs (a3-run HR) on 4 hits and 2 walks, with 8 K over 6 innings. The 15 Ks in 12.2 innings is impressive, as is the 15/2 K/BB ratio. Bundy is one mistake away from being 2-0.
I’m still not sure what in the hell was going on with Bundy last season in BALT. What I do know is that up to this point, the 27-year-old Bundy had performed progressively worse each season since he’s been the majors. Part of the problem was that his average FB velocity was down 2.5 mph from what it was when he debuted. Another issue was that it’s tough to be a fly ball pitcher in a bandbox with a juiced ball, especially in the AL East. Truth be told, Bundy actually didn’t pitch all that badly last season, after a really horrendous start. He started 30 games for the Orioles last season and only produced a 7-14 record, but he did have 17 good starts and 12 poor ones. That may not look all that impressive until you consider just how bad the O’s really were. Bundy’s 1.35 WHIP was mediocre and his 4.79 ERA was high, as were his ERA metrics, a 4.73 FIP, a 4.58 xFIP and a 4.54 SIERA. However, even with the decline in velocity, Bundy was able to post an impressive 23.1% K rate, his second-highest, by reducing his FB usage to 50%. Instead he attacked hitters with his slider and change. The other major change Bundy made was a sinker that he started using about 15% of the time beginning on August 9th. From that game on, Bundy posted a 4.05 ERA and a 50% GB% which helped him limit the HRs to a 0.8 HR/9) ratio. Before the adjustment, Bundy had a 37% GB rate, a 2.0 HR/9, and 5.10 ERA. He still posted a high 8.3% walk rate and a higher than league average 1.6 HR/9 ratio. On the plus side, Bundy only gave up a 31.2% hard contact rate. The biggest problem was that the O’s were such a bad team that Bundy had virtually no margin for error. Getting out of Camden Yards, not to mention the rest of the AL East with parks like Yankee Stadium and Fenway, should help in a big way. Angel Stadium is a good park for a fly ball pitcher like Bundy, with that marine air. The ball also doesn’t carry well in other AL West parks like OAK and SEA. Another plus is that Bundy has also been consistently healthy, making 89 starts over the last three seasons. The Angels shouldn’t have to play musical chairs with this spot in their starting rotation again this season. As hard as it is to believe, some late-season changes make Bundy a sleeper with solidt upside coming into this season.
Tajuan Walker has also started 2 games for the Mariners, but with very mixed results. In his first start in HTN, Walker got lit up for 5 runs on 7 hits and a walk, with 1 K, over just 3.1 innings. Of course it was the Astros, a superb hitting team. However, in his next start against the A’s, Walker tossed a gem, giving up just 1 hit and two walks, with 8 Ks, over 7 shutout innings. Because of injuries, Walker has started a grand total of just 7 games between 2018 and now. In those 7 starts, Walker has given up 10 runs on 24 hits and 8 walks, along with 19 Ks over 24.1 innings.
Edge – LAA
Bullpens
Both of these bullpens have stunk out the loint. I don’t trust either one.
Edge – None
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
HC%
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
LAA
|
5.00
|
9
|
4.2
|
9
|
0.310
|
15
|
105
|
12
|
0.190
|
6
|
11.4%
|
5
|
21.1%
|
5
|
45.1%
|
5
|
1.4
|
5
|
SEA
|
4.31
|
16
|
3.7
|
11
|
0.306
|
17
|
104
|
13
|
0.143
|
24
|
9.5%
|
14
|
25.2%
|
22
|
39.3%
|
20
|
1.7
|
2
|
The Angels have most of the edges, but many are very close. What not close is the power numbers, the walk rares, the K rate, and the hard contact. The Angles generate a lot more power, a @% higher walk rate, a 4% lower K rate and make 16% more hard contact. The Angels had about a league average offense last season without Anthoy Redon and with Mike Trout only playing in 114 games and Jutin Upton only playing 63. They started the season without Redon, but he’s now back, and so is Trout who missed a few games while on paternity leave. The Angels will go as far as Trout takes them, but he can’t do it alone. Trout’s been carrying this team forever and they still can’t get anywhere. It’s not his fault! Since 2012, Trout posted wOBAs of .409, .423, .402, .415, .418, .437, .447, and .436. He has been at least 67% above league average offensively in each of his eight seasons. He’s a freak and he’s the best player in the league. Add Rndon and Upton to the mix and the Angels just might have a much unproved offense despite the detrimental effects of their home park. By contrast, The Mariners hit well last season,…for the first 15 games. Then it all fell apart and their offense disappeared. There’s no reason to expect real improvement this season.
Edge – LAA
Conclusion: This is a tough call, but the Angels do have the better offense, and just as importantly, they hsave Trout, Rendon and Upton and the Mariner don’t. Both bullpens pretty much suck. That leaves the two starting pitchers, and I have more faith in Bundy.
Pick - LAA