OAK @ SEA
Starting Pitchers
9:10
|
|
|
GOOD
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K %
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BB %
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HR/9
|
wOBA
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
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BB/K
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HC
|
GB
|
OAK
|
Fiers – R
|
|
24
|
7
|
1.19
|
3.90
|
4.97
|
5.19
|
6.19
|
16.7%
|
7.0%
|
1.46
|
0.303
|
0.254
|
78.5%
|
0.42
|
30.3%
|
39.9%
|
SEA
|
Kikuchi - L
|
|
15
|
13
|
1.52
|
5.46
|
5.71
|
5.18
|
5.17
|
16.1%
|
6.9%
|
2.00
|
0.339
|
0.310
|
70.8%
|
0.43
|
37.7%
|
44.0%
|
Mike Fiers did not get off to a good start this season. He gave up 4 runs on 7 hits over 4 innings to the Angels. Whistleblower Fiers started 33 games for the A’s last season, producing a 15-4 record with 24 good starts and 7 poor ones. He was the first player to publicly out the Astros for their sign-stealing operation, Fiers posted a solid 1.19 WHIP and 3.90 ERA, but his ERA metrics, a 4.97 FIP, a 5.79 xFIP, and a 5.19 SIERA, were all more than a full run higher than his ERA. Discrepancies like that make Fiers one of the biggest potential regression candidates in baseball this season. Another sign pointing the same way is Fiers’ really low .254 BABIP which was 40 points lower than his career average. That all tells me that Fiers was exceedingly lucky last season. With a measly 16.7% K rate, Fiers doesn’t miss many bats these days (not that he ever really did) , and his 7% walk rate is high for a pitch to contact type like Fiers. He also posted a high 1.46 HR/9 rate that resulted in 30 HRs. So how in the hell did he do it? Of the 104 pitchers with 120 innings last season, Fiers was one of the 43 who had an ERA under 4.00, but his ERA metrics were all at or above 5.00. That’s awful! His K rate had dropped over the past two seasons, and of the 104 pitchers with at least 120 innings his K rate was the 8th lowest. Walks weren't a problem but his 1.5 HR/9 could have been. Fiers avoided that by posting the 14th highest (78.5%) strand rate. The numbers clearly say that Fiers should not have been as good as he was. The only answer that makes any sense is that he was very lucky. He also limited his hard contact to under 40% (39%) and playing his home games in the spacious Oakland ballpark didn’t hurt either. I’m looking for regression from Fiers.
Yusei Kikuchi’s first sytart of the season was even worse than Fiers. He was shelled for 5 runs on 5 hits and 4 walks over 3.2 innings. Of course, he was facing the Astros. Unlike Fiers, Kikuchi’s rookie season was less than stellar. Kikuchi made 32 starts, finishing 6-11 with 15 good outings and 13 poor ones. That’s hardly an impressive ratio of good starts to bad. Kikuchi’s 1.52 WHIP and 5.46 ERA were both very high, and his ERA metrics, a 5.71 FIP, a 5.18 xFIP and a 5.17 SIERA tell me that his high ERA was richly deserved. His 16.1% K rate % was low, and he lost velocity as the season progressed. Kikuchi also allowed way too many HRs, 36, in just under 162 innings, for a whopping 2.0 HR/9 rate. The only thing close to a positive was Kikuchi’s marginally adequate 6.9% walk rate. Kikuchi just didn’t miss enough bats, and really struggled with the long ball. That’s a lousy combination that puts his team in unfavorable situations way too often. He allowed a .380 wOBA the first time through the batting order! It should also be noted that Kikuchi had a 6.78 ERA against AL West teams in 15 starts, but was actually halfway decent against everybody else, allowing 47 earned runs in 94 innings for a 4.50 ERA. The point is that Kikuchi got lit up by the teams that saw him the most. That doesn’t bode well for him in this matchup and going forward. If anything, it makes it more likely that he gets worse against everybody else as they a;so become more familiar with him and with better advance scouting reports. Kikucki may well turn out to be a complete bust.
I give the edge to the lesser of two evils. Edge – OAK
Bullpens
The A’s pen has been pretty good, while the Mariners pen has sucked. The two numbers that hit me were the half a run discrepancy in R/IP and the 35% discrepancy in BB/K.
Edge – OAK big
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
HC%
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
OAK
|
3.43
|
27
|
-7.7
|
27
|
0.334
|
9
|
118
|
7
|
0.169
|
19
|
10.0%
|
12
|
25,3%
|
21
|
41.4%
|
15
|
0.3
|
6
|
SEA
|
5.12
|
11
|
7.5
|
4
|
0.268
|
27
|
74
|
27
|
0.111
|
28
|
9.4%
|
16
|
25.6%
|
23
|
42.4%
|
13
|
0.6
|
4
|
The A;s flat out aren’t hitting. Last season, the A’s were the better hitting team, ranking 5th in wOBA and 10th in wRC+. By cantrast, the Mariners ranked 18th in both. Both offenses basically stood pat during the offseason, so I can’t say why the A’s are struggling so much, but they are/
Edge SEA right now.
Conclusion” The A;s problem is simple. They’re just not hitting. They also ran into a superb pitching pergormance by Walker (7 IP 1 h). I’ve got the perfect cure. His name is Yusei Kikuchi, The A’s have the better starting pitcher, albeit by default. The have the much better bullpen, and they should have the better offense.
Pick - OAK