Apache John juust asked me if I was going to hedge my series bet on the Astros. I've never been a big fan of hedging so I didn't realy consider it. Hower, it makes sense. I just go the Nats at +125. Id the Astros win. I end up +0.40 units. If the Nats win, I end up +0.50 units.
Pick - WASH M: (+125 for 2 units)
Thank you Apache John
Appache John askedFor what it’s worth last night’s game 6 didn’t go quite as expected. I put 2 units on the Astros ML and ended the day -2 units, which left me -1.41 units for this series, +7.44 units for the postseason, and +235.51 for the seaon.
Last night, I expected that Stephen Strasburg, would pitch well, and he was even better. After a shaky 1st inning in which he gave up 2 quick runs, Strasburg was absolutely masterful, throwing 7.1 shutout innings and giving up just 3 more hits and 2 walks with 7 Ks.
I also expected that Justin Verlander would pitch well. Verlander didn’t pitch poorly, but he didn’t pitch all that well either. After a shaky 1st inning in which he gave up 2 hits and 1 run, Verlander settled down and breezed through the next 3 innings. However, his proclivity for giving up the long ball reared its ugly head again in the 5th. Solo shots by Adam Eaton and Juan Soto turned a 2-1 HTN lead into a 3-2 WASH lead. Verlander finished the inning, but after 93 pitches he was gone, as manager AJ Hinch opted to go to his pen.
I expected that the Astros would make some hay when the Nats went to their wretched pen, but they never got the chance to do that, thanks to Strasburg who went 8.1 innings. By the time Sean Doolittle entered the game with 1 out in the 9th, it was already 7-2. Doolitle did give up a hit, but got the 2 outs that ended the game.
If you’re looking for culprit here, look no further than the Astros middle relievers. We already knew that middle relief was the weakness in the Astros pen. Brad Peacock and Will Harris each gave up a run in their 2 innings in relief of Verlander. That made it 5-2 WASH. Then Chris Devenski, who wasn’t even on the ALCS roster and probably shouldn’t have been on the roster for this series either, sealed the Astros fate by giving up 2 more 9th inning runs.
Want a second culprit? How about Justin Verlander and his surprising inability to go deep in either of his two starts? During his tremendous regular season, Verlander averaged just under 6.2 innings per start. As a result, the Astros only needed 1-2 late innings from their pen in most of his starts. However, in this series, he only went 6 and 5 innings in his two starts. That may not sound like a big deal, but it is when your middle relievers aren’t all that good. Maybe it’s his age (36), or the 258.1 innings he’s thrown, or maybe it’s a combination of both. Whatever the reason, Verlander has been less than stellar in this series and the Astros lost both of his starts. I can’t say that it was really his fault, but I think it was definitely a contributing factor.
As for what I think of tonight’s game, my answer is not much. Yesterday I expected that we’d probably see Anibal Sanchez v Zack Greinke. I’d have put some money on the Astros with that matchup. Now, I see that it will be Max Scherzer v Greinke, and that’s an entirely different animal, one that I want no part of.
Officially, this game is a PASS for me. I might be willing to bet “pizza money”, but I won’t put even a single unit on this game. I’ll be pulling for the Astros because I did put 2 units on the Astros to win this series at +120 after Game 3, so I guess that I’m sort of on HTN, but I won’t bet on this game and here’s why.
First of all, I have no idea what to expect from Max Scherzer. On Sunday, Scherzer was scratched from his scheduled start because of spasms in his upper right trapezius. Three days ago, Scherzer couldn't move his right arm. He got a cortisone shot that relieved pressure on the nerve that was causing the pain. He got treatment from the team's chiropractor. He threw in the outfield before last night’s game and even started getting ready in the bullpen at one point. Scherzer was quoted as saying "when I was warming up tonight, I felt really good. I’m good to go tomorrow”. Is he really? Damned if I know, but I’m sure as hell not willing to bet on it. Scherzer wasn’t all that sharp in Game 1 of this series, but he hung in there and gutted it out, giving up 5 hits and 3 walks in 5 innings (112 pitches) , but just 2 runs, and he also fanned 7. In his other postseason outings, Scherzer gave up 3 runs on 4 hits and 3 walks over 5 innings, with 6 Ks, in a decent but lackluster effort in his WC start against the Brewers. He followed that up just two days later, by striking out the side in 1 inning out of the bullpen against the Dodgers in the NLDS. He returned just 4 days later, giving up just 4 hits and 1 run over 7 innings, with 7 Ks, in the Nats 6-1 Game 6 win against the Dodgers, keeping the Nats season alive. Then in his NLCS start against the Cards, Shcerzer was absolutely dominant, giving up just 1 run on 1 hit and 2 walks over 7 inning with 11 Ks in a 3-1 Nats win. That’s 6 runs on 14 hits and 11 walks over 25 postseason innings with 34 Ks. That translates to a 1.00 WHIP amd a 2.16 ERA. Opposing batter are hitting just .161 against Scherzer in the postseason. If I was sure that I was getting a healthy Scherzer, I’d have at least a first 5, if not a full game wager on the Nats. However, I’m not sure.
Secondly, I don’t have a lot of confidence in Zack Greinke. Greinke pitched OK in his Game 3 start in WASH, giving up just 1 run, but did allow 7 hits and 3 walks in just 4.2 innings, with 5 Ks. Greinke struggled in his ALDS start against the Rays, giving up 6 runs on 5 hits (3 HRs) and a walk in just 3.2 innings. His ALCS start against the Yankees in Game 1 was better, but still not really good. Greinke gave up 3 runs on 7 hits (2 HR) over 6 innings, with 6 Ks in the Astros 7-0 loss. The same holds true for Greinke’s 2nd ALCS start at Yankee Stadium. He only gave up 1 run, but 3 hits and 4 walks in just 4.1 innings, with 5 Ks. That’s a total of 11 runs on 22 hits (5 HRs) and 19 walks over 18.2 postseason innings, with 22 Ks. That translates to any ugly 1.61 WHIP and a high 5.30 ERA. The 5 HRs and 19 walks are particularly troubling since he only allowed 21 HRs and 30 walks in 208.2 innings during the regular season. So far in the postseason, Greinke has been pulled before completing even 5 innings in three of his four starts. In the last two, he was pulled despite giving up just 1 run. I would expect the sane tonight. Greinke is still a solid starting pitcher and will again have the luxury of going righty vs. righty in most of his plate appearances, but he does pitch to more contact than either Cole or Verlander, and hence he is more dependent on batted ball luck.
Third, the bullpens could be very important tonight. They haven’t mattered all that much in this series but that could change in a heartbeat, and it will be all hands on deck for both teams. If Nats manager Dave Martinez stays true to form, he’ll rely on just four relievers, starters Patrick, Corbin and Anibal Sanchez, and relievers Daniel Hudson and Sean Doolittle. It’s obvious that Martinez doesn’t trust the rest of his pen, and with good reason. As for the Astros, everyone is available, even Game 6 starter Verlander. Among the Astros high-leverage relievers, only Will Harris worked last night, and he threw just 5 pitches. Harris, Joe Smith, Josh James, and Roberto Osuna should all be ready to go tonight. Game 5 starter, Gerrit Cole will have had two days' rest under his belt after throwing 110 pitches on Sunday. I expect that we’ll see Cole tonight, probably right after Greinke is pulled. He might be a better option than the Astros suspect middle relievers to bridge the gap and get to the Astros top late inning relievers.
Fourth, the team that hits the most HRs will probably win this game. The team that hits the most HRs in a game is now 26-6 this postseason. The problem is that I really don’t know which team that will be tonight. The Nats hit 3 last night and the Astros hit 1. In this series, the Nats have hit 8 HRs and the Astros have hit 10. Who hits more HRs tonight? Your guess is as good as mine.
It all adds up to a PASS for me on tonight’s game, but I do have that series bet on the Astros pending, so that’s who I will be rooting for tonight. This will be my final MLB post for this season. It’s been a great season. Thanks and BOL to all. Be back in the spring, “God willing and if the creek don’t rise” God Bless