For what it’s worth I finally got some redemption last night. In the first two games of this World Series, I absolutely sucked. Lasr night I finally got it right. I was on the Astros and they grabbed a 4-1 win in WASH, to cut their series deficit down to 1 game and save their season in the process. Undaunted by my failures in Games 1 and 2, I put 5 units on the Astros and picked up 3.76 units. That leaves me -5.24 units for this series,+3.61 units for the postseason, and +231.73 units for the season. Of course it’s much easier to be “undaunted” whem you’re playing with house money. I built up a nice bankroll during the regular season, so no matter what happens from here on out, I’ll still finish the season way ahead.
The Astros, who looked listless at home in Games 1 and 2, were suddenly aggressive, energetic., and right back in the thick of this World Series. George Springer had two of the Astros four steals. Jose Altuve doubled twice, scoring each time, and Zack Greinke repeatedly worked out of trouble, as the Astros beat the Nats 4-1 last night to cut their Series deficit to 2-1. Greinke, the 2009 AL Cy Young Award winner, allowed 7 hits and 3 walks in 4 .2 innings, but somehow managed to give up just 1 run. He was followed by five relievers who combined to give up 2 hits and 0 runs the rest of the way. The Nats 8-game winning streak, tied for the longest in a single postseason, ended with a lackluster, sloppy performance. The Astros scored all 4 runs off Anibal Sanchez, who had taken a no-hitter into the 8th inning of his previous start against the Cards in the NLCS. After the Nats seemingly could do no wrong in Games 1 and 2, they could do nothing right last night, making 2 errors and at least t3 other misplays on what were ruled hits. Rookie sensation Juan Soto who was charged with an error for a wild throw home, and also let another ball trickle past his glove, went 0 for 4 with 3 Ks.
I think that tonight’s Game 4 will be pivotal. It’s the first time in this series that the Nats were actually favored when I bet it. The Astros chose to go with a basically untested rookie who has just 7 MLB starts under his belt, rather than bring back ace Gerrit Cole on short rest. I think that’s a smart decision. The Nats will counter with Patrick Corbin who’s coming off a great season. If the Astros can win this game, the series will be tied with two of the final three games in HTN, and with Cole. Verlander and Greinke (their big 3) going on normal rest. If that happens, I really like their changes. If the Astros don’t win tonight, they’ll be down three games to one with one more game in WASH. They’ll still have their big three, but they’ll have to win all three. There will be mo margin for error. I guess that’s why the series price on the Astros, which was -215 before this series started, is now +120. Despite the obvious starting pitcher disparity tonight, the Astros were just a very small dog. That’s why I put a couple of units on the Astros to win this series last night.
As for what I think of tonight’s game, much of this write up will be repetitive. The offenses and bullpens haven’t changed. I just updated a few stats after last night game.
HTN @ WASH
Starting Pitchers
8:07
|
SP 2019
|
GOOD
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
BB/K
|
HC
|
GB
|
HTN
|
Urquidy - R
|
(4/7)
|
(2/7)
|
1.12
|
4.24
|
3.54
|
3.77
|
9.53
|
1.59
|
1.32
|
0.241
|
0.293
|
71.0%
|
0.19
|
37.1%
|
44.`%
|
WASH
|
Corbin - L
|
26/33)
|
(6/33)
|
1.18
|
3.25
|
3.49
|
3.88
|
10.60
|
3.12
|
1.07
|
0.222
|
0.290
|
77.3%
|
0.30
|
34.5%
|
49.5%
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Edge – WASH
Bullpens
Edge – HTN
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
HC%
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
HTN
|
5.68
|
3
|
196.6
|
1
|
0.355
|
1
|
125
|
1
|
0.221
|
3
|
10.1%
|
1
|
18.2%
|
1
|
38.9%
|
8
|
-9.5
|
26
|
WASH
|
5.38
|
6
|
29.0
|
7
|
0.336
|
6
|
103
|
8
|
0.190
|
11
|
9.3%
|
8
|
20.9%
|
4
|
36.1%
|
24
|
3.7
|
12
|
Edge – HTN
Conclusion: At the start of June The Nats were just 24-33. They weren’t a .500 team until June 27, yet they still managed to win 93 regular season games. That’s .657 ball over their last 105 games. That was an impressive turnaround, but still not enough to catch the Braves in the NL East. That meant that the Nats had to host the Brewers in a Wild Card game just to get into the NLDS, where they upset the heavily favored Dodgers 3 games to 2. The narrative coming out of that upset was that the Dodgers blew it, and that’s not necessarily wrong. However, let’s not forget that the Nats still had to actually win it. They won despite having to play and win a wild card game just to get there, and despite two cross-country flights. They also won two games at Dodger Stadium, where the Dodgers went 59-22 during the regular season. The Nats then proceeded to sweep the Cardinals, and now they’ve taken Games 1 and 2 on the road, against the heavily favored Astros, before losing Game 3 last night, making them 10-3 in 13 postseason games.
The Astros have, for the most part, been dominant, winning their second AL pennant in three years. They won 107 regular season games to set a franchise record. It was the 3rd straight season in which they won at least 100 games, despite a myriad of injuries. Alex Bregman was their only player to play in more than 150 games. Michael Brantley, Josh Reddick, and Yuli Gurriel all played over 140. However, George Springer missed 40 games. Jose Altuve missed 38 games. Carlos Correa only played 75 games, and Yordan Alvarez wasn’t called up until midseason. The Astros also lost SPs Charlie Morton and Dallas Keuchel to free agency and SP Lance McCullers to injury. None of it seemed to matter. The A’s provided little more than token resistance in the AL West, and the Astros juggernaut rolled into the postseason. They were pushed to the limit by the pesky Rays in a tough 5-game ALDS, but then polished off the potent Yankees in 6 games despite a stunning Game 1 loss in HTN. Now, they find themselves down two games to one, and on the road, trying to just even this series up.
The Nats can hit and they’ve shown that in this series. Their offense was not as good as the Astros during the regular season, but in this series they’ve score 18 runs (15 earned), 0n 32 hits and 11 walks in 110 ABs, with 4 HRs and 126 Ks. The Nats posted a .350 wOBA in the second half of the season along with a 113 wRC+. Only the Astros and Yankees had better wOBAs. However, the Nats were also somewhat lucky. They benefitted greatly from a .316 BABIP over the second half, which tied with the Rockies for the highest in the league. In othe words, tjheve been very lucky on batter balls in play. Look no further than that decisive 7th inning in Game 2.
The Astros had the best offense in baseball during the regular season. However, they’ve scored just 11 runs in the first three games of this series on 30 hits and 10 walks in 111 ABs, with 4 HRs and 25 Ks. The Astros ranked 3rd in runs per game during the regular season, while the Nats ranked 6th . They ranked 1st in ORAA, wOBA, and wRC+, while the Nats ranked 6th, 6th and 8th respectively. The Astros ranked 3rd in ISO and HRs, and the Nats ranked 11th and 13th respectively. The Astros walked 0.8% more and struck out 2.7% less. However, the Astros have struggled with RISP (7/27) in this series, after going just 5-for-44 in those situations in the ALCS. The Nats haven’t fared much better going 0 for 10 last night and just 7 for 29 with RISP in this series. Both pitching staff haves done a good job of shutting down the other team’s offense. Never underestimate how far good pitching can take you.
Except for base running, the Astros did everything else a little bit better than the Nats in the regular season. Even when adjusted for non-pitcher offensive stats, the Astros had 455 more plate appearances, hit 58 more HRs, posted a 1.8% lower K rate, a 0.4% higher walk rate, a 2 point higher BA, a 1 point higher on-base percentage, a 26 point higher SLG, a 9 point higher wOBA, and a 15 point higher wRC+. Of course, in a small 7-game sample size, stats don’t mean as much. Anything can happen, and since both of these teams make a lot of contact, batted ball luck played a big part in Game 2 and could impact this series even more in the remaining games. Now, the Astros have to play without a DH for the next two games in WASH. It wasn’t a factor last night, but could still be a factor because AL teams really do miss the DH when they have to play without one. In the Astros’ case, that means either playing Yordan Alvarez in the OF (a defensive liabi.ity) or just using him as a pinch hit in high leverage situations. Last night he pinch hit. Either way, it’s not a positive for a team already struggling.
Since Corbin is left handed, it’s also important to consider how the Astros offense has fared against lefties. The Astros ranked 1st against LHP with a .363 wOBA, and a 131 wRC+. They also ranked 1st against RHP with a slightly lower .351 wOBA and a 123 wRC+. The Nats were 8th against RHP with a .332 wOBA and 11th with a 101 wRC+.
Another factor to consider is the capacity to make adjustments. The Astros would seem to have that edge. They were 3rd in OPS against a starting pitcher for a 3rd time at .907. The Nats, on the other hand, ranked 16th at .802. Astros pitchers allowed the lowest OPS at .642 with a pitcher facing a batter for the 3rd time. The Nats allowed the fourth-lowest OPS at .732. The Nationals had a 2.68 K/BB ratio in those plate appearances, while the Astros had a 5.41 K/BB, easily the best in baseball. The Astros rotation would appear to be a little better when it comes to turning the lineup over a 3rd time, but they weren’t facing pitchers of the caliber of Scherzer, Strasburg and Corbin. Strasburg allowed a .590 OPS in that split. Scherzer a .619, and Corbin a .620. It was Anibal Sanchez’s .923 that skewed the numbers, along with that of the other non-primary Nats starters.
Bullpens are usually even more important in the playoffs. As for these two, this is the one area where I thought that the Astros would have a significant edge, but so far it hasn’t worked out that way.
During the regular season, while the Nats starting rotation was a huge asset, their bullpen was a huge liability. Fortunately, the Nats haven’t had to rely on their bullpen extensively so far in these playoffs. In Game 1, the Nats handed their pen a 5-2 lead, then saw it dwindle down to a 1-run lead before Sean Doolitttle finally closed it out. In Game 2, it didn’t matter because the Nats handed their bullpen a huge 8-2 lead, and last night, the Nats pen delivered 3.2 shutout innings of 1 hit ball after the Astro had already taken a 4-1 lead. In the Wild Card Game, Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg (out of the pen and Daniel Hudson recorded all 27 outs, with 15 from Scherzer, 9 from Strasburg, and3 from Hudson. In the NLDS, the Nats needed 135 outs. They got 102 of them from Scherzer, Strasburg, Patrick Corbin, Sean Doolittle and Hudson. In the NLCS, the Nats needed 108 outs and 76 came from those five pitchers, although they got a surprisingly great start from Anibal Sanchez and Tanner Rainey contributed a little out of the bullpen. It’s quite clear that Nat’s manager Dave has very little faith in most of his bullpen options, and that’s understandable. As a result Scherzer, Strasburg, Corbin, Doollitle and Hudson will be asked to carry the load again in this series. Corbin was again used out of the pen for an inning in Game 1, and Doolittle got it done in the 9th in Game 2, but I still believe that at some point, the Nats bullpen is going to have to get outs with a game on the line from guys like Hunter Strickland, Wander Suero, and Rainey, and that could still be problematic.
The Astros bullpen is solid, but top-heavy. Their late inning relief trio of Roberto Osuna, Ryan Pressley, and Will Harris were excellent during the regular season, although Pressley did struggle in Game 1 of the ALDS and again in Game 2. Osuna also gave up that 2-run blast in the 9th inning of Game 6 in the ALCS, before Altuve saved his ass with a 2-run HR in the bottom of the inning. Last night five relievers combined to give up 2 hits and 0 runs in relief of Greinke and preserve HTN’s win. The long ball has been a problem for several Astro relievers, including the aforementioned Osuna at times. Chris Devenski was left off of the roster, due in large part to his HR issues. Josh James has shown his propensity for giving up the long ball and issuing walks. Brad Peacock struggled badly in his 11 relief innings in the ALDS. Joe Smith has pitched well, but the Astros lack matchup lefties. They only have Wade Miley, Cionel Perez and Framber Valdez to use against leftues. Fortunately, the Nats have just two left-handed batters in the regular lineup, Adam Eaton and Juan Soto, but Soto was a 1-man wrecking crew in game 1. They also have Matt Adams, Asdrubal Cabrera (S), and Gerardo Parra as bench lefties or as mix and match starters.
That brings us to the two starting pitchers, and tonight I think that the Nats should have an edge there.
Jose Urquidy has started just 7 games for the Astros, and has 4 good starts, including his last 2, and just 2 poor ones. In those 7 starts Urquidy gave up 16 runs on 23 hits and 6 walks over 34 innings, with 36 Ks. That left Urquidy with a good WHIP, a slightly better than league average ERA, but ERA metrics that are about ¾ of a run better than his ERA. In is two postseson appearances out of the Astros pen Urquidy has Igiven up 1 run of 6 hits and 2 walks over 4.1 innings with 8 Ks. It’s a small sample size, but so far it’s been mostly good. I don’t know what to expect from Urquidy tonight, but I do expect that manager AJ Hich will have a quick hook, and pull Urqiddy at the first sign of trouble.
Patrick Corbin struggled in his one start against the Cards in the NLCS, giving up 4 runs on 4 hits and 3 walks over 5 innings, with 12 Ks. He also started game 2 of the NLDS against the Dodgers, giving up 2 runs on 3 hits and 5 walks over 6 innings, with 9 Ks. That’s 6 runs, on 7 hits and 8 walks over 11 innings, with 21 Ks. Corbin has also made 4 appearances out of the Nats pen in these playoffs. He got shelled by the Dodgers to the tune of 5 runs on 4 hits and 2 walks in 0.2 innings in his first relief appearance, but then tossed 2.2 perfect innings in his next 3, with 6 Ks. Corbin finished an excellent regular season with 26 good starts, in his 33 outings, and just 6 poor ones. Corbin did have a really bad three start stretch from late May through early June in which he lost command of his fastball and slider, but except for that brief stretch Corbin pitched great. . When he commands those two pitches, Corbin can be damned near unhittable, but when he doesn’t, he can get rocked. Fortunately, Corbin rediscovered that command and pitched really well since that stretch. Overall, Corbin had a very good WHIP and ERA, with ERA metrics that were totally consistent with his ERA. In addition to his elite K rate, Corbin also limited his hard contact, and HRs (24), and generated a good number of GBs. As long as he has his command, Corbin has a pretty big margin for error because his stuff is just so damned good.
I really didn’t expect the Astros to lose both of the first two games in HTN. When I dug deep into Game 2, I still couldn’t believe the batted ball luck that the Nats had in that 7th inning. As for last night’s game, the Nats seemingly could do no wrong in Games 1 and 2, they could do nothing right last night. It all evened out. The numbers say that the Astros have the better offense, but not by a lot, and these two pitching staffs have done a very good job of neutralizing these two dangerous offenses. I also think that the Astros have the deeper and stronger bullpen. However, the used five pitchers to preserves last night’s win in a game they needed like blood. They may need a similar effort form their pen tonight. As for the Nats, their bullpen hasn’t hurt them so far, but that could still change. Scherzer and Strasburg are the Nats answer to the Astros Cole and Verlander. They makes the Nats one of the very few teams that can actually match up with the Astros. As for tonight’s two starting pitchers, although he hasn;’t pitched all that well in his first two postseason starts, I still think that Corbin is the better pitcher. The numbers are close, but Urquidy’s numbers are based on just 7 starts and that’s way too small a sample size for me to be comfortable with. By contrast Corbin;s excellent numbers are based on 33 regular season starts. I still believe that the Astros are the better team, not by a lot in any one area, except maybe the bullpen, but collectively. I think that still gives them the overall edge.
Another edge that I see for the Astros is that I think that they also have the better manager. I have no stats to back this, up but I believe that Dave Martinez is the inferior manager here. , I think that AJ Hinch is the better manager better, and some of the managerial decisions could be important in this series, like Martinez’s decision to use Corbin out of the pen 4 times in these playoffs.. Until last night, most everything has worked out for the Nats in this postseason. They had some very good luck on batted balls in game 2, and strangely enough, none of Martinez’s decision came back to bite him in the ass until Sanchez got hit last night. .
The Astros desperately need last night’s game and got it. If they can win again tonight, I think that they’ll win this series. I think that this game is so close it should be a pick em. Hell, this morning when I bet it, the Astros were small dogs, now they’re small favorites? I could justify a small wager on either side, and could easily justify passing completely on this game. Hell, I even toyed with the idea of taking the Nats 1st 5 becuase of Corbin, and the Astros full game because of the the Nats pen. Instead, this morning I decided to risk no more than 1 unit on the Astros as small dogs to even this series up, because I still think that they're the better team..
Pick – HTNML (+107 for 1 unit)