For what it’s worth, yesterday was a terrible day. I really thought that it would be a good one, but thanks to the Dodgers and the Red Sox, it turned to complete crap. I ended up losing 9.49 units, and 9 of those units were directly attributable to the Dodgers and the Red Sox.
We’ll start with the Dodgers. They were facing a bad PHIL team, a team that they had blown out the night before on very short rest. They had one of the best pitchers in the league on the hill. How do they not win this game going away? Well, for starters, Buehler had a very rare awful start. He gave up 3 HRs in the first 2 innings, two solo shots and a 3-4un blast from Bryce Harper. All of a sudden the Dodgers found themselves down 6-1, but they came back. It was 6-5 PHIL going into the top of the 9th. A walk and a singleput men on 1st and 2nd. PH Matt Beaty launched a 3-run shot, and that fast it was 8-6 LA. Hallelujah! I had a 2 run lead going into the bottom of the 9th. I would at least win the full game ML. Unfortunately, the Dodgers shaky bullpen came back to bite them in the ass once again. Closer Kenley Jansen was awful giving up a double, 2 singles and another double to tun an 8-6 Dodger lead into a 9-8 Dodger loss. The bullpen is a glaring weakness on an otherwise elite Dodger team, and if they don’t fix it fast, they could end up losing another WS, that’s if they make it that far, and don’t get knocked off by an inferior team in the NL playoffs. Teah, I know that they have a huge lead in the NL West, but this has to be a disheartening loss. The fought hard to come back and then blow it so badly. That should never happen to a team this good.
Then there was the Red Sox. This team is in trouble. They’re 10 games out in the AL East and won’t catch the Yankees. They are also 3 out in the AL wild card race. This team should be better than they have played, but they aren’t, and I’m not sure that’s going to change. The Sox were hoping to catch lightening in a bottle when they picked up Andrew Cashner from the Orioles last week. I’ve seen this happen many times before. A pitcher performs faily well for a really bad team, and a contender picks him up up expecting that he’ll be even better now that he finally has a good team behind him. It’s a nice story, but it rarely works out that way. Cashner is not a good starting pitcher, and I doubt that changes because he’s now on the Red Sox. Cashner gave up 6 runs (5 earned) on 6 hits and 2 walks in just 5 innings. The Sox were down 4-1 early but manged to tie ia at 4-4 after 5, but Cashner gave up 2 more in the 6th. Then the Red Sox shaky bullpen got involved, as Heath Hembree and Ryan Weber combined to give up 4 more runs in the 9th, as the light hitting Blue Jays turned the game into a rout. The Red Sox had no business losing to this pile of crap, but they did. Now they face the very real prospect of completely missing the playoffs, just a year after winning it all. That’s inexcusable!
Very little went right for me yesterday. Fortunately, the Nats and Indians both won, and I cashed bets on both as well as a parlay.
On that subject, I’m beginning to believe that two-team parlays might be a more profitable way to go more often. I played two last night and split them, but still finished up about half a unit on the two combined. That’s why I’m starting to really like them. They offer much better odds. You can win money by hitting 50%. The argument that it’s tough enough to pick one winner, without compounding the problem by trying to pick two has some validity, but that logic suggests that we’re better off just looking for and playing dogs, but big favorites have a really good track record, so fading them might not be such a good idea. We’ll see.
Let’s move on to today’s card. There’s not a lot that I like this afternoon, but I liked a lot last night and that didn’t go so well. Here’s one that I do like.
ATL @ MIL
Starting Pitchers
2:10
|
SP 2019
|
Team W/L
|
GOOD
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
BB/K
|
HC%
|
GB %
|
ATL
|
Keuchel – L
|
(3-2)
|
(4/5)
|
(0/5)
|
1.31
|
3.09
|
4.90
|
4.51
|
4.78
|
4.78
|
2.81
|
1.13
|
0.258
|
0.272
|
83.3%
|
0.59
|
38.3%
|
61.3%
|
MIL
|
Anderson – R
|
(6/7)
|
(6/13)
|
(4/13)
|
1.23
|
4.23
|
4.10
|
4.69
|
4.50
|
8.61
|
2.77
|
1.17
|
0.237
|
0.282
|
71.2%
|
0.32
|
39.6%
|
37.8%
|
Edge – ATL
Bullpens
Team
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
R/IP
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
BB/K
|
K%
|
BB%
|
ATL
|
21
|
0.5
|
25
|
12
|
29
|
15
|
0.32
|
76.1%
|
1.37
|
3.74
|
4.55
|
4.62
|
4.30
|
0.44
|
24.2%
|
10.6%
|
MIL
|
9
|
3.0
|
21
|
20
|
26
|
12
|
0.53
|
69.9%
|
1.32
|
4.59
|
4.17
|
4.08
|
3.97
|
0.38
|
26.0%
|
9.9%
|
Edge – MIL small
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB/K
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
ATL
|
5.33
|
7
|
15.0
|
11
|
0.334
|
6
|
103
|
10
|
0.198
|
8
|
0.34
|
21
|
9.1%
|
12
|
22.3%
|
12
|
2.0
|
11
|
MIL
|
4.81
|
16
|
-1.0
|
12
|
0.327
|
9
|
99
|
13
|
0.200
|
4
|
0.41
|
8
|
9.7%
|
3
|
24.4%
|
24
|
4.7
|
8
|
Edge – ATL
Conclusion: The Braves have the better offense and the more consistent offense. It’s not that the Brewers can’t hit, they can, but they run so hot and cold. With the exception of last night against Brandon Woodruff, the Braves have been on a tear. As for the bullpens, the numbers give the Brewers the end, and I can’t disagree. However, the Brewers pen has struggled recently and the Braves have seemingly gotten better. I’m nor prepared to call it even, but I won’t give the Brewers a huge edge either. That leaves the two starting pitchers.
Dallas Keuchel has made 5 sdtarts and 4 of them have been good. He has yet to give up more than 3 runs in any start, in in his last 3, he’s gone 7 innings o more in all 3, and given up no more tan 2 runs in any of them . In those 3 starts, Keuchel has given up just 5 total runs on 16 hitsa and 7 walks over 21.1 innings with 12 Ks and just 1 HR. Keuchel isn’t getting the Ks yet, but he is getting a ton of GBs. His walks are high, but that’s it for problem areas.
Chase Anderson has 6 good starts and 4 poor ones in his 13 outings. That’s not all that impressive. Anderson rarely goes deep. He;s averaging just over 4,2 innings per start. Anderson hasn’t given up more than 2 run in his last 4 starts, but that was against the Mariners, Reds, Pirates and Giants, hardly a murder’s row. The Brave will be a big step up in class.
I took a shot on Keuchel, who seems to be rounding into form, this morning. He’s just better than Anderson.
Pick – ATL 1st 5 ML (-112 for 2 units)
SEA @ OAK
Starting Pitchers
10:07
|
SP 2019
|
Team W/L
|
GOOD
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
BB/K
|
HC%
|
GB %
|
SEA
|
Swanson - R
|
(1-5)
|
(2/6)
|
(4/6)
|
1.36
|
7.98
|
7.03
|
5.18
|
4.99
|
6.14
|
0.92
|
3.38
|
0.289
|
0.268
|
40.7%
|
0.21
|
34.3%
|
33.0%
|
OAK
|
Bailey – R
|
((8-10)
|
(10/18)
|
(7/18)
|
1.41
|
4.80
|
4.48
|
4.63
|
4.88
|
8.10
|
3.80
|
1.20
|
0.255
|
0.301
|
71.3%
|
0.47
|
44.9%
|
45.8%
|
Edge – OAK
Bullpens
Team
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
R/IP
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
BB/K
|
K%
|
BB%
|
SEA
|
30
|
-0.2
|
13
|
20
|
20
|
18
|
0.63
|
68.7%
|
1.45
|
5.06
|
5.09
|
4.87
|
4.62
|
0.51
|
21.8%
|
11.1%
|
OAK
|
7
|
4.6
|
14
|
17
|
22
|
16
|
0.46
|
73.5%
|
1.28
|
3.91
|
3.89
|
4.81
|
4.25
|
0.39
|
23.7%
|
9.3%
|
Edge – OAK
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB/K
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
SEA
|
4.96
|
13
|
30.0
|
7
|
0.322
|
14
|
105
|
7
|
0.203
|
3
|
0.38
|
14
|
9.4%
|
10
|
25.0%
|
26
|
5.3
|
7
|
OAK
|
5.18
|
9
|
19.8
|
10
|
0.325
|
11
|
105
|
7
|
0.197
|
9
|
0.40
|
10
|
8.7%
|
14
|
20.0%
|
3
|
-2.2
|
21
|
Edge – None
Conclusion: The A’s are on a tear right now. They’ve won 5 in a row and 8 of their last 10. The Mariners are the exact opposite, having lost 5 in a row, and 8 of their last 10. On paper the offenses are close, but the A’s are hot and the Mariners are not. As for the two bullpens, that’s a mismatch. It’s not so cuch that the A’s are that good, but the Mariners are that bad. Clears Data Sports ranks them #30, dead last. The Mariners pen is a train wreck. As for the two starting pitchers, the A’s get the edge there, mostly by default.
When last seen, back in May, Erik Swanson was just awful. He made 6 starts for the Mariners before getting demoted. Of those 6 starts, 4 were poor and just 1 was good. In those 6 games, Swanson gave up 32 runs (28 earned) on 40 hits and 5 walks over 31.1 innings. As a result Swanson had a high WHIP, a lousy ERA and ERA metrics. A a very lower BABIP say Swanson was lucky. It could have been even worse. Swanson is a fly ball pitcher who doesn’t miss many bats, and he’s given up 11 HRs in his 6 starts. That not a good combination to have when facing an A’s team that ranks 6th in HRs with 152.
As for Homer Bailey, superficially Bailey looks pretty mediocre. He has 10 good starts, but 7 poor one in his 18 outings. His WHIP is mediocre and his ERA is too. His ERA metrics are mostly a little lower than his ERA, but all better than Swanson’s, but still mediocre. Bailey’s K and HR rate are both appreciably better than Swanson’s, but his walk rate is worse. He gives up a little more hard contact, but also generates a lot more more GBs. However, 5 of Bailey’s 10 good starts were all in June and July , with just 2 poor ones, so he’s trending the in the right direction. Bailey’s no prize. But he is certainly better than what we’ve seen so far of Swanson.
The A’s have all the edges here. That’s why the ML is so damn high.
Pick –OAK + BOS MLs (+116 for 2 units)
I’ll write up the 2nd half of the parlay later
I’ve been at my cardiologist’s office most of the afternoon, so I do not have the time for write ups , For what it’s worth, here are my picks for tonight.
LAD @ PHIL
The Dodgers are still the better team despite blowing that game last night. I bet this one this morning
Pick – LAD ML (-146 for 4 units)
WASH @ BALT
The Nats are the better team, but I’m not overly fond of Erik Fedde. However, as little as I think of Fedde, I think less of Aaron Brooks. Still two lousy pitchers.
Pick WASH ML (-172 for 2 units)
DET @ CLEV
The Indians are the much better team, and Clevingers in finally over his hijury with back to back quality starts but I refuse to lay -254 so I’ll use the Indians in a parlay.
Pick – CLEV ML
TOR @ BOS
The Red Sox off a bad loss, but Rodriguez has been very good after a very poor start. Aaron Sanchez is a total wreck, but BOS like CLEv BOS is too expensive. I’ll use the Red Sox as a parlay
Pick- BOS ML
Parlay #1 – CLEV ML + BOS ML (+100 for 3 units)
Parlay #2 – LAD ML + WASH ML (+166 for 2 units)
Parlay #3 CLEV ML + HTN ML (+117 for 2 units)
3 TEAM Parlay CLEV ML + BOS ML + HTN ML (+211 for 2 units)
ARIZ @ TEX
The Rangers have the better offense on paper, but not against lefties. The Rangers went into last night’s game rank #22nd in wOBA and 26th in wRC+ against lefties. Last night, they managed just 1 hit and 3 runs off of young lefty Alex Young in 5.1 innings. The Diamondback might have a small edge in the bullpen, but if so it’s very marginal. That leaves the two starting pitchers.
Lefty Robbie Ray Robbie Ray is on the trade block, so any start he makes could be his last with the Dbacks. Ray has 13 good starts in his 20 outings to just 4 poor ones. The Rangers also have the league’s highest K% against lefties. That should bode well for Ray tonight. He has 145 K in 1his 11 innings this season. Ray’s K rate is elite, but his 56 walks is high. Ray doesn’t give up many hits (89), but he does walk a lot of batters and that can be very problematic. Ray’s walks almost always put a lot of runners on base, but his FB and nasty slider gets him out of a lot of jams with a lot of timely Ks. Hitters often can’t catch up to his FB, or miss wildly on the slider, but when they make contact, they hit it hard and long. That also means that Ray has to throw a lot of pitches and as a result rarely goes deep into a start.
Jesse Chavez is no longer an opene. Chavez is now a full-fledged starter, as he’s worked at least five innings in his last five appearances, four of them starts. He’s also allowed 13 earned runs on 17 hits over his last 16.1 inningsas a full-time starter. Granted, He’s faced the Astros, Twins, and Rays in that role, so he hasn’t any creampiuffs, but the Dbacks aren’t creampuffsa either. Chavez he doesn’t have a great starter’s profile. His arsenal isn’t rall that deep, but he does have a plus slider. Of those 5 outing 2 have been good, but 3 have been poor.
Pick – ARIZ 1st 5 ML (-125 for 2 units)
HTN @ LAA
The Anges have been playing over their heads and out of their minds. It’s been a tremendous tribute to late teammate Tyler Skaggs, but the fact of the matter is that the Astros are still the much better team here, and tonight the Aglens won’t be facing a bullpen plug-i. They will be facing Gerrit Cole. The Astros have the better offense and the much better bullpen. They also have Cole on the hill. Cole strugglged in his lasat start. He was given lead on 3 separate occasions and could not hold anu of them, but that has been the exception rather than the rule. Cole Cole has now thrown 16 quality starts in his 20 outings, and just 4 poor ones. Cole has had just 1 poor start since May 22and that was his last one. He has a stellar WHIP and a very good ERA, His ERA metrics are even lower than his stellar ERA. Cole has also notched 183 Ks in his 1122.2 innings, with only 32 wlks, giving him a great BB/K.
Felix Pena will probably be preceded by an opener. He is coming off that combined no hitter by the Angels pen, but he’s not really that good. His WHIP is solid, but his ERA is high. His ERA metrics are consistent with his ERA and his 27 walks in just over 81 innings in a little high.
I say Cole bounces back tonight and the Astros avoid the sweep. They’ve only been swept once all season.
Pick – HTN 1st 5 RL (-125 for 2 units) and full game ML (-180 for 3 units)