For what it’s worth, yesterday was a truly frustrating day, thanks mostly to the Astros who suffered through their third straight day of impotence. I won more bets (4) than I lost (3) but thanks to two big bets on the Astros, I finished down 2.24 units.
Just 4 days ago the Astros were rolling. They came into Sunday’s game at home with the Blue Jay on a 15-5 tear. They got blown out 12-0 by the Jays, and have now lost back to back games to the Reds 3-2 and 4-3. I still don’t get it. Yeah, I know that they’re still missing some big bats in the middle of that order, but they had several opportunities in both of those games and just did not take advantage.
My other loser was the Brewers, who I may well have overrated. The winners were, the Mets 1st 5, the Cubs 1st 5 the A’s 1st 5 and the Dodgers 1st 5. The Red Sox 1st 5 was a push.
Let’s move on to today’s card.
HTN @ CIN
Yesterday, Justin Verlander gave up 3 HRs and that was just too many.
Starting Pitchers
12:35
|
SP 2019
|
Team W/L
|
QS
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
HC%
|
GB %
|
HTN
|
Cole - R
|
(10-5)
|
(12/15)
|
(3/15)
|
0.99
|
3.67
|
3.02
|
2.47
|
2.61
|
13.90
|
2.18
|
1.49
|
0.202
|
0.291
|
69.0%
|
37.1%
|
39.8%
|
CIN
|
Mahle - R
|
(3/10)
|
(6/13)
|
(5/13)
|
1.25
|
4.33
|
4.20
|
3.71
|
3.88
|
9.30
|
2.17
|
1.53
|
0.257
|
0.309
|
74.5%
|
37.9%
|
45.0%
|
Gerrit Cole has now thrown 12 quality starts in his 15 outings, and just 3 poor ones. He has given up at total of 43 runs (37 earned) on 68 hits and 22 walks over 90.2 innings. Cole has a stellar WHIP and a good ERA, and his ERA metrics are close to a run lower his solid ERA. Cole has also notched 140 Ks, giving him an incredibly good 140/22 K/BB ratio, and a 0.16 BB/K. Basewinners keeps telling me how important that stat is. Here’s the link: https://www.cleardatasports.com/basewinner-data-studies/ Those kind of numbers tell me that some big time positive regression should be coming for Cole. That’s also supported by a strand rate that is still about 5.2% lower than his career rate. Yet, all Cole has to show for his fine numbers is a 6-5 record along with 4 no decisions. Better times are coming for Gerrit Cole.
Tyler Mahle opened the season with 2 solid outings, but since then he’s mostly struggled, with just 4 more good outings and 5 poor ones. Mahle has given up 35 runs (34 earned) 71 hits and 17 walks over 70.2 innings. Mahle’s WHIP is solid, but his ERA is a little high, but his ERA metrics are all a little lower than his mediocre ERA, so there is some reason to believe that we could see some positive regression from Mahle. That said, there is also reason to expect some negative regression. Mahle, who has a career 17% HR/FB rate had only given up 7 HRs in his first 9 starts. That was unlikely to continue, and over his last 4 starts Mahle gave up 5 HRs. That could be problematic against the Astros.His K rate is solid and his 73/17 K/BB ratio is good, with a 0.23 BB/K.
Edge - HTN
Bullpens
The Astros have one of the best bullpens in baseball. They rank #1 in WHIP and #4 in ERA.
Edge HTN
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
HTN
|
5.24
|
8
|
66.3
|
2
|
0.344
|
2
|
120
|
2
|
0.206
|
3
|
-4.4
|
25
|
7.8%
|
22
|
17.8%
|
2
|
16.0
|
3
|
CIN
|
4.29
|
23
|
-70.0
|
26
|
0.302
|
24
|
82
|
26
|
0.173
|
19
|
-8.4
|
30
|
9.7%
|
7
|
23.3%
|
16
|
3.3
|
25
|
The Astros rank 4th in HRs, but they’ve been missing some important bats such as Jose Altuve, George Springer, and Carlos Correa. That’s a combined 37 HRs and 99 RBIs. In the first two games of this series the Astros were just 2 for 14 with runners in scoring position. That’s atrocious, but Altuve is back and that should help some.. The Reds, on the other hand, simply have not hit well. This Reds lineup really hasn’t delivered much power, but they are better at home. Great American is a small park and the Reds are 12th in SLG% at home. That’s decent, but not anywhere near as good as they should be in that park. Tha Astros also have a 0.56 BB/K, while the Red have a 0.35.
Edge – HTN
Conclusion: Offensively, even missing some important bats the Astros should still be better than the Reds who have struggled all season. The Astros have had their chances in this series, but just haven’t taken advantage. With Altuve back, they should be better. The Reds bullpen has been surprisingly effective, but with a few exceptions, like Sunday’s hiccup against the Jays, the Astros pen has been very effective. As for the two starting pitcher, Gerrit Cole is obviously the much better pitcher. The Astros should have a big edge there. Of course if the numbers were always right, the Astros would have won the first two games of this series and they didn’t. Call me crazy, but despite what they’ve cost me in the last 3 days, I’m backing the Astros big again. I grabbed this first thing this morning and it has gone up. I may be crazy, but I’m not alone. Sometimes, you just have to stick to your convictions.
Pick – HTN 1st 5 RL (-125) for 3 units) and full game ML (-166 for 3 units)
TB @ NYY
Starting Pitchers
1:05
|
SP 2019
|
Team W/L
|
QS
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
HC%
|
GB %
|
TB
|
Snell - L
|
(7-7)
|
(9/14)
|
(5/14)
|
1.17
|
3.70
|
3.03
|
2.94
|
3.27
|
12.07
|
2.87
|
1.08
|
0.230
|
0.327
|
73.3%
|
31.6%
|
43.8%
|
NYY
|
Sabathia - L
|
(6-5)
|
(6/11)
|
(5/11)
|
1.40
|
4.42
|
5.99
|
5.01
|
4.82
|
7.89
|
3.32
|
2.37
|
0.265
|
0.278
|
81.7%
|
44.5%
|
39.2%
|
Blake Snell, may well be the reigning AL Cy Young award winner, but he’s not pitching as well as he did a seasob ago, and he’s not having nearly as much luck either. Snell got off to a very shaky start. In his opening day start, the Astros roughed him up scoring 5 runs on 6 hits and 2 walks in 6 ugly innings of work in a 5-1 Rays loss. Snell only notched 2 Ks and took the loss. However, Snell quickly righted the ship with three stellar outings against the Rockies, at the White Sox, and at the Blue Jays. In those three starts, Snell gave up just 1 run (a solo HR) on 9 hits and 2 walks over 19 innings, with 33 Ks. Unfortunately, Snell fractured a toe on Aril 13 and missed his next start, and when Snell did return, he looked rusty, giving up 3 runs over 3.1 innings in a loss to the Royals, and in his next start also against the Royals in KC, Snell got lit up for 7 runs on 6 hits and 3 walks in just 3 innings. However, in his next 5 starts, Snell looked like he was completely back, giving up a total of 6 runs (2 earned) on 20 hits and 8 walks over 30.1 innings , with 42 Ks. Howeverr that was followed by another poor start against the Angels in which Snell gave up 4 runs (3 earned) on 5 hits and 4 walks in just 3,1 innings. Snell’s WHIP is still very good, and his ERA is also solid. As for his ERA metrics, they are all lower than his ERA, a sign pointing to good things on the horizon for Snell. Snell also has a .257 xwOBA as opposed to his .289 wOBA.snothe sign pointing to positive regression. His K rate remains elite with a 101/24 K/BB ratio and a 0.24 BB/K. Snell also gives up very little hard contact. Snell’s numbers don’t look as impressive as last season, and h hasn’t been anywhere near as consistet, but they do look a lot more sustainable. Snell had a .241 BABIP against last season and an 88% strand rate. This season, those numbers aren’t as good, but look more like what we should expect going forward. Snell has great stuff, including a 94-95 mph heater, and a big curveball. This season Snell is getting ahead 0-1 over 70% of the time. Last season, he was only doing that at a 57.1%. clip. Hitters are swinging more, chasing more, and are making a lot less contact. By getting ahead more, Snell has been able to use his dominant curveball more, over 31% of the time, and hitters are struggling with it.
I still don’t think much of CC Sabathia. At one time he was an excellent starting pitcher, but that time is long gone. The only problem is that almost every time that I’ve faded him, I get clobbered, so this season I’ve pretty much stayed far away from Sabathia. CC has started 11 games for the Yankees, with 6 good starts and 5 bad ones. His WHIP and ERA are both high, and his ERA metrics are all around a full run or more higher than his already high ERA. They are alarmingly high, and scream negative regression for Sabathia. A BABIP that is still 28 points lower than his career average and a strand rate that is 18.3% higher that his career rate, both scream the same message. Regression has begun and it could get ugly. Sabsthia is not missing many bats these days, and his 121walks in 57 innings is high, as are his 15 HRs and high hard contact rate. There are a lot of valid reasons to be very skeptical of CC Sabathia going forward.
Edge – TB
Bullpens
These are two good bullpens
Edge TB slight
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
TB
|
4.64
|
18
|
34.8
|
5
|
0.330
|
10
|
109
|
5
|
0.177
|
17
|
2.4
|
11
|
8.1%
|
20
|
24.2%
|
23
|
13.3
|
4
|
NYY
|
5.39
|
5
|
22.7
|
7
|
0.332
|
7
|
107
|
7
|
0.190
|
10
|
0.4
|
15
|
8.4%
|
17
|
22.6%
|
12
|
10.3
|
11
|
The numbers say that this is actually close, but, I don’t think that I agree. The Rays put a lot of balls in play, and that makes they dangerous, but a lot of that in GBs and that makes the DP prone. It also means they lack power. By contrast, the Yanks who were very injured, still hit, and now theur big bats are getting healthy. In the poswer department, the Yanks have a big edge.
Edge – NYY
Conclusion: Offensively, I think the Yankees are clearly the bettr team. Is this game is decided by offense, the Yankees should win. However both bullpens are very good, and as far as the starting pitchers go, even with a more inconsistent Snell, the Rays have a huge edge over the Yanks and the fast fading CC Sabathia.
Pick – TB 1st 5 RL -0.5 (-115 for 2 units)
BALT @ OAK
Starting Pitchers
3:37
|
SP 2019
|
TeamW/L
|
QS
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
HC%
|
GB %
|
BALT
|
Yacabonus - R*
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
1.41
|
4.76
|
5.38
|
5.36
|
4.91
|
6.99
|
3.49
|
1.59
|
0.261
|
0.286
|
75.0%
|
23.5%
|
40.2%
|
OAK
|
Bassitt - R
|
(4-6)
|
(7/10)
|
(2/10)
|
1.19
|
3.68
|
4.43
|
4.66
|
4.61
|
8.74
|
3.68
|
1.23
|
0.209
|
0.245
|
78.0%
|
32.5%
|
42.0%
|
*2018
Jimmy Yacabonis will be making his first start of the season after 13 appearances out of the Orioles pen. This season, Yacabonis has given up 12 runs on 22 hits and 10 walks over 20 innings. Those are not impressive numbers. The 10 walks in 20 innings really stands out, as does Yacabonis’ 12/10 K/BB ratio. Looks like another garbage BALT pitcher/
After a line drive off his knee in an exhibition game in Japan delayed his season, Chris Bassitt has now made 10 starts for the A’s with 7 good starts and just 2 poor ones. Bassitt has given up 25 runs (24 earned) on 46 hits and 24 walks over 58.2 innings, with 57 Ks. The result is a good WHIP and ERA. Bassitt’s ERA metrics however, are ala amost a full run higher than his ERA. That’s because of his walks, a low BABIP, which is 42 points lower than his career average, and his high strand rate, that is 4.1% higher than his career rate. That’s may not be sustainable, and both numbers should regress, but even with some regression, Bassitt still appears headed for a solid season, two years after undergoing TJ surgery.
Edge – OAK
Bullpens
Edge – OAK big
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
BALT
|
4.90
|
26
|
-48.7
|
25
|
0.300
|
26
|
86
|
23
|
0.162
|
23
|
-0.2
|
17
|
6.9%
|
27
|
23.9%
|
22
|
2.1
|
26
|
OAK
|
4.90
|
15
|
4.0
|
12
|
0.319
|
16
|
101
|
12
|
0.185
|
13
|
-0.8
|
18
|
7.6%
|
25
|
20.3%
|
4
|
10.2
|
12
|
Edge – OAK
Conclusion: The A’s have the much better offense and the much better bullpen. As for the starting pitching matchup, Bassitt’s been decent, but not exceptional, but I’m not buying Jimmy Yacabonis at all. His propensity for walks could really hurt him against this A’s team. Apparent the market’s not buying Yacabonis either. This line keeps rising. I only bet it about an hour ago, and it’s gone up since.
Pick – OAK 1st 5 RL (-170 for 3 units) and full game RL (-145 for 2 units)
PHIL @ WASH
Starting Pitchers
7:05
|
SP 2019
|
W/L
|
QS
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
HC%
|
GB %
|
PHIL
|
Arrieta - R
|
(8-6)
|
(9/14)
|
(5/14)
|
1.45
|
4.31
|
5.04
|
4.49
|
4.87
|
7.35
|
3.78
|
1.47
|
0.266
|
0.300
|
77.3%
|
38.3%
|
50.8%
|
WAS
|
Scherzer
|
(5-10)
|
(13/15)
|
(2/15)
|
1.08
|
2.81
|
2.26
|
2.84
|
2.96
|
12.32
|
1.81
|
0.72
|
0.230
|
0.336
|
77.6%
|
39.3%
|
42.3%
|
Jake Arrieta is having a decent season. He does have 9 good starts in his 14 outings, as compared to 5 poor ones, so that’s a plus. However, Arietta’s WHIP and ERA are both high, and his ERA metrics, are all even higher than his already high ERA. That’s troubling and makes him a prime candidate for negative regression. Arrieta’s K rate is pedestrian and his 36 walks in just under 86 innings is very high. His 70/36 K/BB ratio leaves a lot to be desired as does his 0.51 BB/K. On the plus side, he is still generating a lot of GBs.
Max Scherzer is supposed to be an elite starting pitcher, and his numbers say that he still is. Scherzer has certainly encountered more than his share of bad luck so far this season, but he also has not pitched quite as well as I expected him to, at least early one, and I certainly did not expect the Nats to be just 5-10 in his starts. Yet, Scherzer has now tossed 13quality starts to just 2 poor ones in his 13 outings, including each of his last 10. Scherzer’s WHIP is very good, as is his ERA. When we look at his ERA metrics we find that they are all really good, so,e even better than his already very good ERA, Scherzer’s BABIP is a ridiculous 47 points higher than his career average. That’s just bad luck, and points to continued positive regression for him going forward. Scherzer’s K rate is still elite and he has limited his walks (20), and HRs (8). Sherzer’s 136/20 K/BB ratio is superb, as is his 0.15 BB/K. By all rights, Scherzer’s results should be much better than they actually have been. He pitching great!.
Edge – WASH
Bullpens
The Phils pen isn’t all that good, but the Nats pen has been horrible.
Edge – PHIL
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
PHIL
|
4.87
|
16
|
-27.4
|
19
|
0.314
|
18
|
92
|
19
|
0.175
|
18
|
0.0
|
16
|
8.5%
|
16
|
22.3%
|
10
|
9.1
|
14
|
WASH
|
4.96
|
15
|
-19.9
|
18
|
0.322
|
15
|
95
|
16
|
0.178
|
16
|
-1.2
|
19
|
9.7%
|
7
|
23.0%
|
14
|
6.5
|
19
|
The Nats are getting healthy and they are hitting the way I expected
Edge – WASH close
Conclusion: The Nats have the better offense, the the Phils do get an edge in the bullpen. That said the biggest difference in this game is the two starting pitchers. Arrieta may still be a decent middle to back of the rotation type pitchers, who better days are well past him. Scherzer is elite and he is once again pitching like the ace his is. Unfortunately, the 1st 5 ML is priced that way. I won’t play the full game because of the WASH pen. That means layin the half a run on the 1st 5 RL
Pick – wASH 1st 5 RL -0.5 (-155 for 3 units)
LAA @ TOR
Starting Pitchers
7:07
|
SP 2019
|
W/L
|
QS
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
HC%
|
GB %
|
LAA
|
Heaney - L
|
(2-2)
|
(3/4)
|
(1/4)
|
0.97
|
4.57
|
4.97
|
4.13
|
3.34
|
12.46
|
2.49
|
2.49
|
0.185
|
0.200
|
80.9%
|
49.0%
|
27.6%
|
TOR
|
Sanchez - T
|
(5-10)
|
(5/15)
|
(6/15)
|
1.60
|
5.04
|
5.17
|
5.18
|
5.32
|
7.80
|
5.16
|
1.20
|
0.265
|
0.310
|
70.8%
|
35.4%
|
50.0%
|
Andrew Heaney has only started 4 games, but3 of them have been good. Heaney has given up a total of 11 runs on 15 hits and 6 walks, with 308 Ks in his 21.2 innings. Heaney’s WHIP is superb, but his ERA is high. That probably exaggerated because of his one bad outing. With just 4 starts, one bad pne can warp a oitcher’s stats for a while. Heaney’s ERA metrics are mostly lower than his ERA and probably a more accurate reflection of how he’s actually pitched. His K rate is elite, with a very good 30/6 K/BB ratio, and a 0.20 BB/K. Heaney had a pretty good 2-18 seasson, He was only 9-10, but has 18 quality starts in his 30 outings to just 10 poor ones. His WHIP was good, and his ERA was slightly higher than league average, but his ERA metricswere close to half a run better than his ERA, and that’ bodes well for 2019. He fanned batters at better than league average rate, while limiting the walks and HRs.
Aaron Sanchez has started 15 games for the Blue Jays and just 5 have been good, 6 were poor and 4 were mediocre. However, Sanchez has been trending in the wrong direction, with 3 of his poor starts coming in his last 3 outings. Sanchez has given up 47 runs (42 earned) on 71 hits and a whopping 43 walks over 75 innings. That’s a hell of a lot of baserunners (114) for 75 innings. It makes me think that Sanchez has been damn lucky that more of them didn’t score. That may explain the 17 runs (10 walks) in his last 3 starts (14 innings). You put that many men on base, and sooner or later, you’re gonna get burned. That’s why Sanchez has such a high WHIP and ERA. It also explains why his ERA metrics are all even higher than his very high ERA. A 65/43 K/BB ratio is pretty bad, as is his 0.66 bb/K. All that makes Sanchez a prime candidate for some serious negative regression. We’ve already seen it happening and it could get worse.
Edge – LAA big
Bullpens
Edge – None
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
LAA
|
5.04
|
13
|
27.3
|
6
|
0.327
|
13
|
108
|
6
|
0.179
|
15
|
-1.9
|
21
|
9.5%
|
11
|
17.0%
|
1
|
11.6
|
10
|
TOR
|
3.94
|
27
|
-73.1
|
27
|
0.289
|
27
|
79
|
27
|
0.163
|
21
|
-3.5
|
23
|
10.0%
|
4
|
24.6%
|
25
|
1.1
|
28
|
Edge – LAA
Conclusion: Don’t be fooled by the Jays 12 run outburst on Sunday. That was the exception to the rule. The Lays are a lousy offensive team, while the Amgels are above average offensively. The bullpens look pretty even. As for the two starting pitchers, Heaney has pitched pretty damn well, and Sanchez has been such a complete disaster that he won’t even bring anything in the upcoming trade deadline market. I’m going with the better team and the better starting pitcher. I grabber the full game ML thius morning bfore it really starterd rising and the 1st 4 RL as soon as it because available.
Pick – LAA 1st 5 RL -0.5 (-130 for 3 units) and full game ML (-146 for 3 units)
CHI WS @ CHI C
Starting Pitchers
8:05
|
SP 2019
|
Team W/L
|
QS
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
HC%
|
GB %
|
CHI WS
|
Giolitto - R
|
(10-3)
|
(10/13)
|
(2/13)
|
0.95
|
2.22
|
2.70
|
3.71
|
3.67
|
10.56
|
2.89
|
0.56
|
0.179
|
0.249
|
79.5%
|
30.5%
|
37.4%
|
CHI C
|
Lester - L
|
(7-6)
|
(7/13)
|
(5/13)
|
1.31
|
3.32
|
4.39
|
4.43
|
4.57
|
6.38
|
3.17
|
1.19
|
0.252
|
0.290
|
80.3%
|
42.1%
|
41,8%
|
Last season, some of the metrics guys called Lucas Giolitto the worst starting pitcher is baseball. That was obviously a huge exaggeration or at least very premature. Right now, Giolitto has already delivers 10 quality starts in his 13 outings, including each of his last 9. That compares to just 2 poor starts and 1 mediocre one. On May 7, Giolito threw 7.1 shutout innings against the Indians, All of a sudden everything clicked. He had an elite changeup in that game and he’s been using that changeup ever since. In his last 9 starts, Giolito has a 0.76 ERA and a 0.94 ERA, with 65 Ks and 14 walks 57.1 innings of work. He’s only allowed 2 HRs. Overall, Giolitto has given up 22 runs (20 earned)on 51 hits and 26 walks over 81 innings with95 Ks. HIS WHIP and ERA. are both very good, and his ERA metrics, while higher than his stellar ERA are also quite good. Guilito has an elite K rate, with a 95/26 K/BB ratio and a 0,27 BB/K. He has done a very good jobs on limiting the hard contact and HRs (5). The 26 walks in81 innings is high but not awful. Maybe Giolitto is finally starting to live up to the potential that scouts raved about during his minor league career..
Jon Lester has delivered 7 quality starts in his 13 outings this season. However he now also has 5 poor outings. For a couple of seasons now, Lester’s numbers have all been pointing squarely to regression. That’s the reason that the “metrics folks” lkept fading him. Yet somehow, he managed to outperform those numbers, and he was doing it again this season, at least through his first 7 starts. His last 6 starts have been a different story. He did have a quality start against the Angels three starts ago, but in the other 5, Lester got lit up at WASH, v PHIL, at HTN, v STL and at LAD. In his last 6 starts, Lester has given up 30 runs (27 earned) on 43 hits and 9 walks over 32 innings. Lester’s WHIP is still decent and his ERA is still good, but his ERA metrics are mostly over a full run higher than his ERA, so Lester could regression has hit Lester badly, and he could be in lime for a little more. . His 59.17 K.BB ratio isn’t bad, but it’s nowhere near what Lester used to produce. Lester is definitely not be the same dominant ace that he was a few years ago. So far, he’s still been more good than bad, but that’s changing fast..
Edge – CHI WS
Bullpens
I haven’t been high on this Cubs bullpen all season, but Craig Kimbrel is scheduled to join the team by the end of the month, so maybe there’s hope on the horizon. However, as shaky as the Cubs pen is, the White Sox pen is worse.
Edge – CHI C
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
CHI WS
|
4.31
|
22
|
-17.0
|
17
|
0.307
|
22
|
93
|
17
|
0.151
|
27
|
6.6
|
2
|
8.6%
|
15
|
25.3%
|
27
|
4.7
|
23
|
CHI C
|
5.11
|
10
|
8.6
|
11
|
0.332
|
7
|
104
|
10
|
0.196
|
7
|
-4.2
|
24
|
8.3%
|
18
|
23.2%
|
15
|
11.7
|
9
|
The Cubs have a top notch offense. The White Sox aren’t exactly toothless, but they’re not n the Cubs class either.
Edge – CHI WS
Conclusion: In this matchup, the Cubs have the better offense, and while I still don’t trust their bullpen, it is clearly better than the White Sox pen. As for the two starting pitchers, these are two guys going iun opposite directions. Giolitto is dominating and Lester is drowning. I’ll ride the wave with Giolitto for 5 innings, especially with what is supposed to be a rough night in Chicago with cloudy skies, cooler temps, and a stiff wind blowing in from left.
Pick – CHI WS 1st 5 ML (-103 for 2 units)
COL @ ARIZ
Starting Pitchers
9:40
|
SP 2019
|
W/L
|
QS
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
HC%
|
GB %
|
COL
|
Gray - R
|
(8-6)
|
(8/14)
|
(6/14)
|
1.35
|
4.39
|
4.18
|
3.64
|
4.01
|
9.96
|
3.32
|
1.39
|
0.258
|
0.325
|
76.7%
|
37.8%
|
47.1%
|
ARIZ
|
Gerinke - R
|
(10-5)
|
(13/15)
|
(2/15)
|
0.88
|
2.65
|
3.36
|
3.66
|
3.85
|
8.05
|
1.33
|
1.04
|
0.203
|
0.238
|
80.5%
|
35.1%
|
41.9%
|
Edge – ARIZ
Bullpens
Edge – ARIZ small
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
COL
|
5.74
|
2
|
-38.9
|
21
|
0.335
|
5
|
90
|
21
|
0.194
|
8
|
-1.8
|
20
|
6.9%
|
27
|
23.8%
|
21
|
6.3
|
20
|
ARIZ
|
5.20
|
7
|
-1.8
|
14
|
0.328
|
12
|
99
|
14
|
0.203
|
4
|
0.9
|
13
|
9.6%
|
9
|
21.8%
|
9
|
12.3
|
6
|
Edge – ARIZ
Conclusion: The Dbacks have most of the edges but they are all small. The biggest edge is at starting pitcher. Jon Gray the bum who walked in the winning run (a pitcher no less) in Sunda’s fiasco, should be better than he is. But he usually underperforms. Greinke’s been money, especially at home.
Pick – ARIZ 1st 5 -0.5 (-115 for 2 units)
SF @ LAD
Starting Pitchers
SP 2019
|
Team W/L
|
QS
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
HC%
|
GB %
|
Pomeranz - L
|
(6-6)
|
(5/12)
|
(4/12)
|
1.73
|
6.43
|
5.55
|
4.61
|
4.65
|
10.10
|
4.59
|
2.02
|
0.294
|
0.355
|
70.3%
|
35.6%
|
41.1%
|
Hill - L
|
(6/3)
|
(7/9)
|
(1/9)
|
1.13
|
2.60
|
4.21
|
3.34
|
3.53
|
10.21
|
2.08
|
1.73
|
0.235
|
0.282
|
89.4%
|
36.9%
|
49.3%
|
Edge - LAD
Bullpens
Edge – SF
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
SF
|
2.86
|
28
|
-84.3
|
29
|
0.285
|
28
|
76
|
28
|
0.144
|
29
|
-2.6
|
22
|
8.8%
|
14
|
23.6%
|
18
|
2.1
|
26
|
LAD
|
5.15
|
10
|
51.3
|
3
|
0.340
|
3
|
112
|
3
|
0.200
|
6
|
6.4
|
4
|
8.0%
|
21
|
20.3%
|
4
|
17.6
|
1
|
Edge – LAD big
Conclusion: The ML in this game is just too expensive. The Dodgers hadn’t hit much lately, scoring just 5r uns in the the first two games of this series, before erupting for 9 last night. They still have the much better offense. The Giants do have the better bullpen, and the Dodger pen has been meltdown prone, so I’m reluctant to play a full game RL here. As for the two starting pitchers, the Dodgers have the edge, but I don’t think it’s as big as it seems. Pomeranz took a while to find his grove, but has been very good in his last 2 starts, one of which was against these Dodgers in LA. He’s also a lefty and the Dodger struggle more with lefties, and this is a pitcher’s park. Hill been mostl very good, and the sF offense usually struggles.
Pick – 1st 5 Under 4.5 (-111 for 2 units)