Going with this team total tonight. Feel free to share your thoughts and BOL everyone!!
Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies
My Pick: Milwaukee Brewers Team Total Over 4 Runs (-120) - W @Bovada
Jake Arrieta will be on the bump for Philadelphia tonight and he owns a 3.78 ERA overall (3.66 at home). Arrieta has allowed at least 3 ER in three of his last four starts while failing to top 6.0 innings in any of those. That's a big change from the 4 starts before that where he allowed 2 ER or less in three out of four while pitching at least 7.0 innings in three of them. In those last four games teams have scored 5, 10 and 9 runs against the Phillies. His matchup tonight figures to be another tough one versus a Milwaukee team that has annihilated him the previous 4 times he's played them outside of Miller Park. Last year as a Philly the Brewers scored 12 total when Arrieta pitched. Three matchups prior to that as a Cub the Brewers scored 6, 11 and 6 in games Arrieta pitched. It hasn't really mattered where they've played, though. He's 7-1-1 Over/Under his last nine matchups against the Brewers and Milwaukee has reached the 4 run mark in six of those. Reaching 4 runs isn't a real big stretch for the Brewers in this spot, either. The team has reached 4 runs in both games thus far in the series and in five of the previous seven matchups these two have played inside Citizens Bank Park. We've seen Milwaukee reach 4 runs in five of their last eight on the road now (2 out of 3 when the total was 8 or higher) and offensive run support for Gio Gonzalez has also been good (4+ runs in two out of his three starts). Philadelphia does have a strong bullpen (3.78 ERA - 7th in the league), but that same bullpen ranks below average in OPS (.731 - 18th in the league) and could certainly give up another run or two against a strong-hitting Brewers team. Temperatures should be a nice 70 degrees with wind blowing SSE in Citizens Bank Park tonight, and that favors hitters. The Brewers really should be able to reach at least 4 runs again versus a pitcher with the second worst home ERA of all 4 healthy starters in Philadelphia..