For what it’s worth, when two good pitchers both get shelled, it usually means trouble for me. That was the case last night, and I got my ass kicked. Both Chris Sale and Clayton Kershaw struggled. I though Sale might. I don’t think he;s healthy. However, I expected a better effort from Kershaw. He doesn’t have the heater to polidsh off batters, even when he gets ahead in the count.
We now move on to Game 2 of “the most expensive World Series in history”.
Starting Pitchers
SP 2018
|
W-L
|
QS
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
BAA
|
HC %
|
SC %
|
GB%
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Ryu - L
|
(8-4)
|
(10/18)
|
(3/18)
|
1.06
|
2.33
|
3.11
|
3.18
|
9.68
|
1.58
|
0.93
|
0.232
|
33.8%
|
20.1%
|
45.8%
|
0.281
|
85.4%
|
Price - L
|
17-8
|
19/33
|
(10/33)
|
1.16
|
3.68
|
3.95
|
3.82
|
9.60
|
2.68
|
1.34
|
0.228
|
32.2%
|
19.4%
|
40.1%
|
0.274
|
77.3%
|
Edge - LAD
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
HLD
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
xFIP
|
Rank
|
SIERA
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
LAD
|
35
|
33
|
48
|
26
|
64.9%
|
89
|
75.3%
|
9
|
1.21
|
4
|
3.72
|
8
|
3.77
|
5
|
3.43
|
5
|
25.7%
|
5
|
8.2%
|
5
|
3.4
|
16
|
BOS
|
40
|
16
|
46
|
20
|
69.7%
|
106
|
77.1%
|
3
|
1.30
|
12
|
3.74
|
9
|
4.05
|
10
|
3.70
|
8
|
25.1%
|
6
|
9.8%
|
21
|
4.9
|
9
|
Edge – None
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
LAD
|
4.70
|
6
|
99.0
|
1
|
111
|
1
|
0.333
|
3
|
0.191
|
2
|
11.4
|
5
|
10.2%
|
1
|
22.6%
|
17
|
33.0
|
1
|
BOS
|
5.45
|
1
|
71.7
|
3
|
110
|
3
|
0.340
|
1
|
0.185
|
4
|
-5.1
|
20
|
9.0%
|
8
|
19.9%
|
3
|
29.6
|
3
|
Edge – None
Conclusion
Offensively, these teams are very evenly matched. The Red Sox score 0.75 more runs per game. They also have a higher Weigted On Base Averagem and a lower strikeout rate. However the Dodgers have the higher Offensive Runs Above Average, the better Isolated Power number, the better Base Running Number , the higher walk rate and WAR. The interesting here is that when we factor in Home v Road performance, it’s even closer. The Red Sox score more runs per game at home (5.69 at home v 5.21 on the road), while the Dodger score more runs per game on th road(5.34 v 4.89). The same pattern holds when we look at batting average (BOS .278 at home v .257 on the road; LA .257 on the road v .239 at home), slugging % (BOS .474 at home v .429 on the road; LA .446 on the road v .428 at home) and OBP (BOS .345 at home v .333 on the road; LA .343 n the road v .320 at hoem).
When we look at the two bullpens, we again find that these two bullpens are also very evenly matched, even though it didn’t look that way last night. The Red Sox have the better W-l record, the better save rate, more holds, a higher strand rate, and a better WAR. However, the Dodgers have the better WHIP, a slightly bit better ERA, better ERA metrics, a slightly better K rate and a lower walk rate.
That leaves the two starting pitchers and they are both very good, but tonight I give the Dodgers the edge.
Hyun-Jin Ryu was awful in his first start, giving up 5 hits and 3 runs in 3.2 innings with 5 walks and 2 strikeouts. Ryu also struggled with injuries, missing almost three and a half months on the DL from early Nay until mid August. However, since returning to the Dodgers rotation on August 15, Ryu was tremendous. Over that 11 start span, Ryu delivered 7 quality starts and missed an 8th by just 1 out. That compared to just 2 poor outins. He gave up 3 runs over 4 innings in his one bad regular season outing over that span, but they got shelled for 7 hits and 5 runs in Game 6 of the NCLS against the Brewers. Ryu had given up 3 earned runs or less in 11 consecutive starts, with 65 Ks in 64 innings and just 5 walks, until he ran into that Brewers’ buzz saw in Game 6.
On the season Ryu is now 8-4 with 10 quality starts in his 18 outings and 2 near misses. That compared to just 3 poor outings. His 1.06 WHIP and 2.33 ERA were superb, and his ERA metrics while higher than his stellar ERA were both very good. His 104/17 K/BB rate in 96.2 innings is better than a 6 to 1 ratio, and he combined it with an almost 46% GB rate. I’m looking for a bounce back from Ryu tonight.
David Price has delivered a fine season. He’s now 17-8 with with 19 quality starts in his 33 outings. He also had 10 poor starts. His 1.16 WHIP and 3.68 ERA were both good, and his ERA metrics, while a little higher, were still decent. Price managed to fan over a batter per inning, while limiting is walks and HRs. Since the start of June, Price is 12-4 with 14 quality starts, and only 6 poor ones, with a 1.10 WHIP and a 3.50. ERA. Unfortunately 2 of the poor outing came in this post season as he gave up 3 hits and 3 runs to the Yankees in just 1.2 innings in the ALDS, and followed that up by giving up 5 hits and 4 runs to the Astros in 4.2 innings the ALCS. He did have a good outing in his last start at HTN giving up just 3 hits and tossing 6 shutout innings. Still, this postseason Price is just 1-1 with a 1.38 WHIP and 5.11 ERA, and for his career, Price is just 3-9 with a 1.24 WHIP and a 5.04 ERA in 12 postseason starts.
This is close, but I expect Ryu to bounce back off a rare poor starts, and I expect Price to regress some, given his checkered post season history, so I’m going back to the Dodgers.
Pick – LAD ML (+135 for 2 units) and 1st 5 Under 4.5 (-110 for 2 units)