908 Brewers RL (-1.5 +115) over Reds
Going with the Brewers and Junior Guerra. Over his last 3 starts Guerra's numbers have gone up but in his 14 starts at home he's 3-3 with a 2.59 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP while the Brewers are 9-5 in those starts. Guerra has faced the Reds 5 times in his career and is 2-1 with a 5.20 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. He'll be matched up with Sal Romano who hasn't been great all year and even worse over his last 3 starts. Romano in his 10 road starts is 2-5 with a 5.33 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP and the Reds are 5-5 in those starts. Romano has faced the Reds 5 times in his career and he's 0-5 with a 5.70 ERA and a 1.69 WHIP. The Brewers are hitting .287 as a team over their last 7 games and Ryan Braun has faced Romano 13 picking up 6 hits hitting .462 off him in his career and should have another big day at the plate for this matchup. Over the last 3 seasons the Brewers are 14-8 against the Reds in Milwaukee and this season the Brewers are 8-3 (3-1 at home) against the Reds. Brewers are 4-1 in Guerra's last 5 starts vs. the Reds. Reds are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings in Milwaukee. Reds are 2-8 in the last 10 meetings. Reds are 0-5 in Romano's last 5 starts vs. Brewers.