Here's a team total I'm playing tonight. Feel free to share your thoughts and BOL everyone! I'm currently 51-41-4 on my forum posted MLB plays this season.
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Seattle Mariners @ Colorado Rockies
My Pick: Seattle Mariners Team Total Over 4.5 Runs (-140) - L
Jon Gray will be taking the mound for Colorado and he owns a 5.77 ERA overall (5.64 at home). He's allowed at least 3 ER in eight of his last nine starts and 1, 4, 4, 6, 0, 0, 5, and 7 ER in each home outing this year. His 1 ER game came against Miami - a team that owns a batting average of .248 (17th in the league) and an OPS of .689 (25th in the league) versus right-handed pitchers this year (Seattle is ranked 4th & 13th). His 0 ER games came against the Angels back in May when their team batting average was ranked 15th in the league, and San Diego back in May when their team batting average and OPS were both bottom-5 in the league. Gray is now 5-0-1 Over/Under his last six starts and tonight figures to be a tougher matchup than any of those other three. Seattle is hitting the ball well on the road this year, owning a team batting average of .262 (4th in the league) and an OPS of .749 (7th in the league) in away games. Gray has only played them in Coors Field once during his career (back in 2015), but didn't perform well as his Rockies lost that game 10-4. Looking at their previous eight visits to Colorado I see the Mariners have put up 5+ runs every single time, even hitting 10 runs in three of those games. Gray (who has been struggling lately and owns the 3rd worst home ERA out of 5 healthy starters) has me thinking 5 should be a floor for Seattle. Good offensive support from guys like Ryon Healy have the Mariners owning a 15-3 record during LeBlanc's past 18 assignments. Meanwhile, Gray is pitching a below-average .336 wOBA against left-handed batters and .366 wOBA against right-handed batters inside Coors Field. Seattle is averaging 7.75 runs per game over their last eight road matchups versus the Rockies and considering what Gray has allowed lately, something around the average doesn't seem out of reach. Offensive run support for Wade Leblanc would also support that - the team has scored at least 5 runs in six of his last eight starts and even has a recent 10 run game in there (against Boston). Plus, these two teams are now 7-0-1 Over/Under throughout their last eight matchups in Coors Field. Colorado has a bullpen owning a 5.25 ERA (28th in the league) and gave up 4 ER to the Mariners yesterday..
This team total opened at 5.5 and I was even liking it there. With the total moving down to 11.5 it's now brought the team total below 5 (at Bovada) and even with the higher vig, I personally think it's worth it here...