For what it’s worth, yesterday turned out to be a “blah” day. We posted 7 plays, and cashed 4 of them. We cashes wagers on the Rangers, the Mets, the Phils and the Astros. Our losers were the Red Sox, Rays and Cards. The Sox had an early 6-3 lead, so that one really hurt. We finished almost dead even (-0.07 units).
On to today’s games:
We only like one early game.
TOR @ BOS
Starting Pitchers
SP 2018
|
W-L
|
QS
|
4 ER
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
HC %
|
SC %
|
GB%
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Borucki – L
|
(0-1)
|
(3/3)
|
(0/3)
|
1.25
|
2.25
|
3.82
|
4.21
|
7.20
|
2.70
|
0.00
|
0.253
|
30.5%
|
11.9%
|
44.1%
|
0.322
|
80.0%
|
Porcello – R
|
(11-3)
|
(13/18)
|
(4/18)
|
1.17
|
3.58
|
3.83
|
3.73
|
8.62
|
2.06
|
0.92
|
0.240
|
31.2%
|
21.5%
|
45.4%
|
0.294
|
73.2%
|
Edge – BOS
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
xFIP
|
Rank
|
SIERA
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
TOR
|
21
|
13
|
23
|
15
|
60.5%
|
76.3%
|
10
|
1.35
|
17
|
3.93
|
16
|
4.24
|
23
|
3.69
|
12
|
2.1
|
16
|
BOS
|
19
|
8
|
32
|
7
|
82.1%
|
78.2%
|
5
|
1.21
|
6
|
3.24
|
6
|
3.68
|
5
|
3.44
|
6
|
4.3
|
5
|
Edge – BOS
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
TOR
|
4.41
|
11
|
-24.3
|
17
|
97
|
13
|
0.314
|
13
|
0.182
|
5
|
7.1
|
24
|
BOS
|
5.41
|
1
|
62.0
|
3
|
114
|
2
|
0.343
|
1
|
0.191
|
2
|
18.8
|
3
|
Edge – BOS
The Red Sox were red hot coming into this series. They had won 10 straight, and they were just beating the hell out of teams.
The Sox have one of the best offenses in baseball, and at home, they are significantly better than on the road (5.96 runs pg at Fenway v 4.92 on the road). Offensively the Jays are probably slightly above average, certainly no better..
The Blue Jays bullpen has been decent, particularly considering that they no longer have Roberto Osuna to close. However, rhe Red Sox pen has been tremendous this season.
As for the two starting pitchers, Sam Gaviglio has now made his 10 starts for the Jays after working out of the pen. He’s 1-3, with 3 quality starts, and 3 poor ones. Gaviglio’s WHIP is quite high, as is his ERA. His ERA metrics are almost a full run lower that his ERA, but still around league average. That tells me that, while Gaglio’s not pitching great, he’s actually pitched a little better than his ERA would suggest. Gaviglio had a problem with the long ball last season, giving up 15 in just 62.1 innings and has already given up 9 this season.
Eduardo Rodriguez is 11-3 with 6 quality starts in his 18 outings. That doesn’t sound all that impressive, but he also just missed 5 more by only 1 out. Rodriguez does have has 4 bad starts. However, in his other 15, it was 3 or less earned runs. His WHIP, ERA and advance metrics are all solid, and better than Gaviglio’s. His K rate is higher, he hives up less HRs, his hard contact rate is 4.3%lower and his soft contact is 2.4%higher. Rodriguez has also been extremely profitable from a betting perspective. The Red Sox are 15-3 in his 18 starts, and Rodriguez ranks as the 3rd most profitable starting pitcher in baseball (hehind only Luis Severino and Jon Lester) at +10.8 units.
The only real statistical edge that Gaviglio has here is a better GB rate.
We're going back to the well today. The Red Sox still have all the edges here. Of course, they did last night as wel, and look how that turned out. It was inevitable that sooner or later the Sox would lose one, andt they finally did. However, after blowing an early 6-3 lead, and having their 10 game winning streak snapped, the Jays should have BOS’s full attention today, and barring a Rodriguez implosion, similar to Rick Porcello’s last night, they should win this game. They are still the much better team.
Pick – BOS RL (-113 for 2 units)
PHIL @ MIA
Starting Pitchers
SP 2018
|
W-L
|
QS
|
4 ER
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
HC %
|
SC %
|
GB %
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Nola - R
|
(12-2)
|
(15/19)
|
(2/19)
|
0.98
|
2.27
|
3.21
|
3.43
|
9.22
|
2.49
|
0.44
|
0.197
|
25.7%
|
21.0%
|
50.2%
|
0.262
|
80.5%
|
Richards -- R
|
(2-5)
|
(3/12)
|
(4/12)
|
1.61
|
5.24
|
4.72
|
4.75
|
8.42
|
4.61
|
0.79
|
0.278
|
42.4%
|
14.7%
|
37.5%
|
0.345
|
69.0%
|
Edge – PHIL
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
xFIP
|
Rank
|
SIERA
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
PHIL
|
16
|
12
|
29
|
11
|
72.5%
|
75.3%
|
11
|
1.30
|
14
|
4.04
|
17
|
3.88
|
7
|
3.58
|
8
|
2.6
|
12
|
NIA
|
20
|
18
|
19
|
10
|
65.6%
|
67.6%
|
29
|
1.46
|
25
|
4.94
|
27
|
4.46
|
26
|
4.23
|
28
|
-0.1
|
27
|
Edge – PHIL
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
PHIL
|
4.37
|
19
|
-24.2
|
16
|
93
|
18
|
0.311
|
19
|
0.157
|
18
|
8.7
|
MIA
|
3.79
|
27
|
-66.7
|
27
|
87
|
26
|
0.298
|
26
|
0.123
|
30
|
8.1
|
Edge – PHIL
Conclusion: Like the aforementioned Orioles, the Marin are another team that I often look to fade. However, while they don’t have much talent, they are a spunky bunch and don’t quit, so they’re not as consistently bad as the O’s or Royals.
The PHIL offense is very mediocre, hovering around average. However the Marlins only wish their offense was that good. It isn’t. It’s one of the worst in baseball.
The numbers say that the PHIL bullpen is a little bit above average. Again that would be wishful thinking for the Marlins, who’s pen is among the league’s worst. Don’t get me wrong, I still don’t trust the PHIL pen, I’ve just seen them blow too many late leads.
That leaves the starting pitchers. Aaron Nola is having a great season. Nola is 12-2 with 15 quality starts to just 2 poor ones. His WHIP, ERA and metrics are all clearly much better than Richards’, as is his K rate, walk rate, HR rate, GB rate, strand rate, BAA and hard and softxontact rates. Nola’s just flat out much.
Rookie Trevor Richard has mostly struggled this season. He does have 3 quality starts, but he also has 4 poor ones, and that’s not a good ratio. The only positive thing here is that he’s not giving up HRs. He got a lousy WHIP, lousy ERA , lousy ERA metrics, high walks, and almost 43% hard contact.
Anyway you slice it, PHIL looks like the right side here. The PHIL bullpen was OK last night , but I still prefer not to involve the bullpens, so I’ll risk the 1st 5 RL.
Pick – PHIL 1st 5 RL (-115 for 2 units)
DET @ HTN
Starting Pitchers
SP 2018
|
W-L
|
QS
|
4 ER
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
HC %
|
SC %
|
GB %
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Fulmer - R
|
(3-8)
|
(9/18)
|
(6/18)
|
1.27
|
4.11
|
4.07
|
4.24
|
7.63
|
3.02
|
1.01
|
0.246
|
39.1%
|
14.9%
|
46.6%
|
0.290
|
70.9%
|
Cole – R
|
(9-2)
|
(14/19
|
(3/19)
|
0.97
|
2.57
|
3.02
|
2.85
|
12.40
|
3.01
|
1.03
|
0.180
|
35.2%
|
19.3%
|
35.5%
|
0.256
|
82.4%
|
Edge – HTN
Bullpens
Edge – HTN
Offenses
Edge – HTN
The Astros have all the edges here, most by a wide margin. The have the much better offense and the much better bullpen.
As for the starting pitchers, Gerrit Cole is 9-2,with 14 quality starts to just 3 poor ones. He has a great WHIP, ERA and ERA metrics. He’s averaging almost 6.2 innings per start, and even in his 3 “poor” starts, he only gave up 4 runs in each. Cole has notched 169 Ks to just 41 walks in his 122.2 innings. Cole possesses a high-nineties fastball, a plus slider, a good curve, and a changeup, with no command problems. He has the total package. After 5 years in PITT, Cole must believe that he died and went to heaven, after getting traded to the Astros. With this Astros team, a Cy Young’s or two’s not out of the question. Of course to win that, he’ll have to outpitch teammate Justin Verlander among others.
The Astros bounced back from a beatdown from the A’s yesterday, and got a strong outing from Dallas Keuchel . After a tough series with OAK, the Tigers are just what the Dr ordered. The Tigers continue to suck.
Pick – HTN RL (-120 for 2 units)
WASH @ NYM
Starting Pitchers
Edge – NYM
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
xFIP
|
Rank
|
SIERA
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
WASH
|
16
|
13
|
28
|
8
|
77.8%
|
76.5%
|
9
|
1.18
|
5
|
3.76
|
12
|
4.12
|
16
|
3.61
|
9
|
1.5
|
22
|
NYM
|
19
|
22
|
21
|
14
|
60.0%
|
74.0%
|
15
|
1.42
|
23
|
4.70
|
26
|
4.60
|
29
|
4.09
|
26
|
-0.9
|
28
|
Edge – WASH
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
WASH
|
4.35
|
18
|
-20.0
|
14
|
94
|
15
|
0.314
|
13
|
0.159
|
15
|
11.8
|
13
|
NYM
|
3.86
|
26
|
-47.6
|
25
|
89
|
23
|
0.298
|
26
|
0.153
|
22
|
6.3
|
26
|
Edge – WASH
Conclusion: This game is a lot less clear cut to me, than the first two. The Nats are barely a 500 team (47-45), but they’re still only 5.5 out in the flawed NL East. On the other hand, the Mets are a train wreck, tied with the Marlins, 14.5 out. They look like they’re ready to throw in the towel, and put up the “for sale” sign on guys like deGrom and tonight’s starter, DSyndergaard.
Offensively, the Nats haven’t hit. That’s been their big problem. All Star outfielder Bryce Harper still isn’t hitting his weight (.213 v 220 lbs). Still, even though the mediocre Nats aren’t hitting, they’re still hitting much better than the struggling Mets, who would kill to have WASH’s offensive stats.
The Nats have a good bullpen, which they fortified by adding TB closer Kelvin Herrera. By contrast, the Mets bullpen is well below average.
As for the starting pitchers, here’s a FanGraphs Spromng Training Report on Austin Voth, when will make his MLB debut:
FB: 91-93 mph, sat in the upper 80’s last year.
CT/SL/SI/FS: 86-87 mph. Late break down. No previous mention of this pitch so not sure about it.
CB: 79-80 mph, announcers called it a slider but looked like a curve.
Sporer kinda dug Voth coming into last yr, but he was a nightmare in the minors;
Zack Wheeler is pitching quite well for the downtrodden Mats. He’s only 2-6, most because of poor run support, but he has tossed 9 quality starts in his 17 outings. He also has 6 poor ones, in which he’s given up at least 4 earned runs. His WHIP and ERA are a little on the high side, but ERA metrics are a little lower than his ERA, and close to league average. He’s striking out almost a batter per inning, and he’s limiting his walks and HRs.,, Most impressive is his very low hard contact rate, and high soft contact rate.
With the exception of starting pitcher, all those other edges go to WASH, but I’m willing to risk a unit on Wheeler for 5 innings, against a kid making his MLB debut. I just hope he gets a little run support form the mets.
Pick – NYM 1st 5 ML(-105 for 1 unit)