926 Indians RL(-1.5 EV) over Reds
Going with the Indians and Carlos Carrasco. I know the Indians are coming off a crazy loss last night giving up 7 runs in the 9th but before that meltdown from the bullpen they were up by 4 runs and I like Carrasco in this matchup. He's been pitching well all season going 9-5 in 16 starts with a 4.28 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP and he's been great over his last 3 starts going 2-1 with a 4.61 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP and what I like the most about Carrasco over the last 3 starts is that he's only walked 2 batters vs. striking out 20. He's faced the Reds 4 times in his career and he has a 2-0 record with a 4.07 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. He'll be matched up with Tyler Mahle who has been up and down going 7-6 in 18 starts with a 3.66 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP and over his last 3 starts he's had an excellent ERA at 2.60 but his WHIP isn't good at 1.44 and he's walked 9 batters over those 3 starts. If Mahle continues to put batters on base against the Indians this lineup can make him pay. This is Mahle first time facing the Indians. The Reds own the advantage in interleague play this year with these two teams but I have to back the Indians in this spot to avoid being swept in this series. Indians are 4-0 in Carrasco's last 4 starts vs. the Reds. Reds are 5-11 in the last 16 meetings. Reds are 5-16 in the last 21 meetings in Cleveland.