Here are three games I'm on tonight. Feel free to share your thoughts and as always, BOL tonight everyone!
========================================================================================
San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins
My Pick: Miami Marlins -½ First 5 Innings (Even) - W
Eric Lauer will be taking the mound for San Diego and he owns a 6.82 ERA overall (6.75 on the road). He's allowed at least 1 ER in seven of his eight starts this year and 1, 4, 3, and 6 in each of his road starts. Today will be his first time in Marlins Park and he'll be playing a team that he didn't do too well against the only other time he's faced them. When playing the Marlins at home earlier this season he finished with 19.29 ERA allowing 7 HA and 5 ER through just 2.1 innings. For what it's worth - Lauer has allowed at least 5 HA in every game this year no matter which ballpark he's been in. Miami went on to win that game 7-2 and we can see that Lauer's ERA is pretty much the same both home & away (4 GP each) with similar innings pitched. He'll come into this game with a .410 wOBA against left-handed batters and a .370 wOBA against right-handed batters in away games this year. The only plus I see for Lauer being on the road is that he averages 2 K/G more in that spot which is still just a whopping 5 K/G on average. Also, Miami somewhat contradicts that owning the leagues 8th fewest strikeouts at home this season (they own the leagues 7th most when on the road). Marlins batters absolutely crushed him in their last matchup - In just 14 plate appearances Maybin went 2-for-2 and three others hit doubles. Projected starters for Miami collectively own a .623 wOBA and .250 ISO against him. All of this makes me think we should see something similar from Miami today. Their averages are pretty much the same both at home and on the road and considering that Lauer's pitching is similar, I think we'll see him give up at least a few runs while he's out there..
On the other side it'll be Caleb Smith taking the mound for Miami and he owns a 4.03 ERA overall (3.51 at home). In my opinion he's one of the better Marlins pitchers. However, he's also coming off a bad showing against Arizona. Still, Smith has allowed 2 ER or less in five of his last seven and 4, 2, 0, 3, and 1 ER through each of his road games this year. He's only allowed more than 5 HA once all season and today he gets a favorable matchup against San Diego who he had no problems taking care of earlier this year. That game was on the road and he finished with a 1.29 ERA allowing just 4 HA and 1 ER through 7.0 innings. It was the same game that Lauer started in and we already know what the result was. Smith owns a lower ERA at home and his pitching wOBA is very similar both home and away. In Marlins Park this year he's throwing a .322 wOBA against left-handed batters and a .267 wOBA against right-handed batters. Reyes is the only player with a home run against him and in 25 plate appearances the team collectively owns a .233 wOBA and .167 ISO versus Smith. Being at home does favor Smith a little more because he's pitched better there. I consider that a bad sign for San Diego and once again, wouldn't be surprised if we saw the same type of result as before. The Padres have been hitting better lately - but their team batting average, OBP and SLG are all still better both at home and against right-handed pitchers..
Looking at everything above I personally think we should see this game begin like it did last time. I don't doubt Miami can get a win here, but if the game is going to change it'll probably happen once the bullpens come in. San Diego owns a 3.29 ERA (7th in the league) while Miami owns a 5.61 ERA (29th in the league). I'm getting better value in the First 5 and personally think that's the safer bet. Miami's bullpen is ranked dead-last for saves this year with just 11..
========================================================================================
Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins
My Pick: Los Angeles Angels/Minnesota Twins Over 8.5 (-108) - L
Garrett Richards will be taking the mound for Los Angeles and he owns a 3.25 ERA overall (3.18 on the road). He's allowed at least 1 ER in two of his last three starts and 3, 1, 0, 1, 1, and 4 ER in each of his road outings this year. Today he'll face a Minnesota team that's been hitting above average recently, owning a team batting average of .261 (11th in the league) with an OBP of .345 (5th in the league) and an SLG of .504 (2nd in the league) throughout the last seven days. Richards last played in Target Field back in 2016 when he finished with a 3.00 ERA allowing 4 HA and 2 ER through 6.0 innings. His last game against the Twins was earlier this year when he finished with a 5.06 ERA allowing 5 HA and 3 ER through 5.1 innings. Minnesota has scored 4+ runs each of those two times he faced them (once at home, once away). Over half the projected lineup for Minnesota owns a .355+ wOBA against Richards, and he's actually been a pitching a little better at home. He'll enter this game throwing a .362 wOBA against left-handed batters and .278 wOBA against right-handed batters on the road. I think we can expect Richards to allow similar (2-3) again today. Minnesota has now played their last 8 games in a row at home and have managed to score 4+ in six of them. Lance Lynn has also received solid run support with the Twins scoring 5+ runs in each of his last seven starts. Minnesota is much stronger playing at Target Field where they own a 16-15 record this year as opposed to the road where they're 11-17. Los Angeles does come in with a decent bullpen owning a 3.70 ERA (11th in the league). However, with injuries to Keynan Middleton and Blake Wood they're down 2 good relievers. Minnesota has been hitting well lately and Richards has been beaten by them before. Add in the loss of two good relievers and I think we should see another 4+ run game out of the Twins..
On the other side it'll be Lance Lynn pitching for Minnesota and he owns a 5.46 ERA overall (3.51 at home). He's allowed at least 2 ER in seven of his last nine and 1, 0, 3, 6, and 0 ER in each of his home games this year. Today he battles an Angels team that he's never played in Target Field before. When playing them (in California) earlier this year he finished with a 7.71 ERA allowing 8 HA and 4 ER through 4.2 innings. No doubt Lance is a better pitcher at home, but the Angels are also a much better hitting team on the road. They own a team batting average of .275 (1st in the league) with an OBP of .342 (2nd in the league) and an SLG of .451 (3rd in the league) in away games this year. Los Angeles also prefers a right-handed pitcher like Lance. The team ranks bottom-10 in the league for batting average, OBP and SLG off left-handed pitchers, but against righties they rank top-6 for each metric. The Angels have scored at least 4 runs each time they've played Lynn, and they've scored 4+ in five of their last eight. Lynn will come into this game with a slightly above-average .310 wOBA versus left-handed batters and .316 wOBA versus right-handed batters at home. Projected starters collectively own a .307 wOBA and .217 ISO against him. We can also see that Richards has gotten decent run support in recent road games - the Angels have scored 4+ runs in five of his last seven starts on the road. It's also worth noting the Angels have scored 4+ in four of their last six visits to Target Field. With a pitcher they've beaten before and a Minnesota bullpen owning a 4.12 ERA (19th in the league), I can't help but think Los Angeles should put at least 4 on the board in this game as well..
========================================================================================
Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers
My Pick: Houston Astros/Texas Rangers Under 9.5 (-120) - L
Justin Verlander will be taking the mound for Houston and he owns a 1.24 ERA overall (0.44 on the road). He hasn't allowed more than 3 ER in any game this year and only reached 3 once. On the road Verlander has allowed 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, and 0 ER this year and tonight he draws a favorable matchup versus a Rangers team that he's already done well against this season. This year at Rangers Ballpark he owns a 0.00 ERA allowing just 4 HA and 0 ER through 6.0 innings. Even if we include home games this year, Verlander owns a 0.90 ERA allowing just 8 HA and 2 ER through 20.0 innings. Texas obviously hits rather poorly, owning a team batting average of .226 (28th in the league) with an OBP of .305 (25th in the league) and an SLG of .386 (23rd in the league) against right-handed pitchers. Meanwhile, Verlander will come into this game owning a solid .249 wOBA against left-handed batters and .175 wOBA versus right-handed batters on the road. Since joining the Astros last year we've never seen Texas surpass 2 runs in a game he's played there (2 games). In fact, of the 9 total times he's pitched at Rangers Ballpark, the Rangers have only surpassed 2 runs four times. Chirinos is the only player with a .200+ ISO against Verlander and all projected starters collectively own a .243 wOBA and .102 ISO against him. With how he's played on the road this year I think we could very well see another game where he allows 2 runs or less before the Astros solid bullpen with a 3.09 ERA (4th in the league) comes in. Looking at run support for Doug Fiter also doesn't look great for Texas - they've scored 2 runs or less in five of his last six starts. Heck, the last 9 times Houston has visited Rangers Ballpark the Rangers have only surpassed 3 runs once..
On the other side it'll be Doug Fister pitching for the Rangers and he owns a 4.13 ERA overall (6.39 at home). He's allowed at least 2 ER in five of his last six games and 6, 6, 2, 3, and 1 in each of his home appearances this year. The two six run games came against the Yankees and Red Sox while the one run game came against the Astros. The public might think this is a spot for Fister to get roughed up in, but I'm not really so sure. He's played Houston twice this year and at Rangers Ballpark allowed just 4 HA and 1 ER through 5.0 innings. Texas went on the win that game 5-1. On the road Fister allowed 4 HA and 3 ER through 6.1 innings. Texas went on the lose that game 6-1. Last year in his one home game against the Astros we saw him finish with a 5.06 ERA allowing 5 HA and 3 ER through 5.1 innings. As you can see, Fister really hasn't done too badly against Houston. Bregman, Stassi and Gattis each own a .200+ ISO against him, but collectively projected starters only own a .328 wOBA and .138 ISO against Fister. Houston has been hitting well lately and Fister does throw a generous .328 wOBA versus left-handed batters and .456 wOBA versus right-handed batters at home this year. However, in his five matchups ever played against the Astros, Houston has never gone above 6 runs and they only reached six once. Also, when looking at run support for Verlander it hasn't been the best - they haven't surpassed 4 runs in any of his last seven starts. On top of that, Houston has also only surpassed 5 runs once in their last five games. I don't doubt they might get a couple of runs off Fister and maybe another run or two off an above-average Texas bullpen owning a 3.65 ERA (10th in the league). However, it seems like 6 runs would be a little hard to reach and their ceiling should be more like 5..
This game opened at the same total as yesterday. Yet, Verlander is a better pitcher than Cole and looking more into Fister his numbers against Houston are actually similar, if not better, than Hamels. Personally, I don't think this should be opening at 9 or 9.5 and nothing really makes me think we won't see a result to this game just like the one yesterday.