Why the Phillies on Tuesday at -105...The Phillies come into Tuesdays matchup hot after winning their last four at home and their last five of seven games. In that seven game stretch, the Phils averaged 4 RPG with a .230 BA/.330 OBP. On the season, the Phillies are 5-0 against LHP while averaging 9.4 RPG with a .278 BA/.384 OBP and 10 HRs over their 169 combined ABs off of LHP. The Phillies will be starting Vinnie Velasquez who has posted strong numbers to begin his '18 campaign. Over Velasquez' last three starts, he established a 2.41 era over 18 innings where he allowed 15 hits on 3 BBs, 20 Ks and 1 HR. Despite Vinnie's strong numbers to start the season, his BABIP against is still a bloated .371 through his first four starts. When looking further into his saber numbers, his BABIP against makes sense as his GB% has decreased over his last two starts. Taking a look at his only home start, Velasquez recored 7 GB outs to match his .250 BABIP against which is more of a comp going into tonights game against a DBacks offense that is averaging just 2.9 RPG with a .190 BA/.262 OBP over their last 7 games. Another positive for Velasquez is that he hasn't been exposed to this DBacks lineup with a combined 25 ABs against with a .160 BA/.192 OBP and 0 HRs. The DBacks will be starting Robbie Ray who hasn't been so sharp to start the season. Ray is carrying a 4.98 era over 21 innings where he allowed 19 hits on 5 HRs and 14 BBs. Over Ray's last three starts, he has seen his IP/S decrease, his BBs increase and due to the fact that he is coming off of back-to-back 100 pitch outings, we are going to fade Ray in this spot against a Phillies lineup that has a combined 42 ABs against with a .310 BA/.326 OBP and 3 HRs coming from three different players. Look for the Phillies to come out of the gate fast tonight as they are looking to build on a 9-1 home record and a 2-0 record coming after an off-day.
Play on the Phillies at -105